The Tiger Woods Major Tournament Betting Strategy

The last of the 2011 golf majors takes place this weekend, and for betters feeling nostalgic about Tiger's seemingly long-gone dominance in the golf world, here's a strategy to consider.



With a mediocre performance over the weekend (and the last two years), Tiger's odds are dwindling with every tournament. You'd be hard-pressed to find him at odds of 10/1 or better at a major until he wins another one, a far cry from the days when you could actually bet on him versus the field--and get better odds on the field!



So here's a strategy: Knowing that 10/1 is the worst of the odds you'll have to lay (he's double that at 20/1 at the PGA Championship this weekend), you could feasibly bet on Tiger at the next 10 majors (covering 2 1/2 years of golf), needing only to win in the last tournament of those 10 to break even. Which means, should he win next year's PGA, you would have unsuccessfully bet on four tournaments, say for $100 each, but in the fifth tournament, assuming at worst 10/1 odds, you would profit $1,000. Our math tells us that you made yourself a $600 profit, at which point you scrap the system.



Now, maybe our logic is flawed. Maybe Tiger will show promise at a tournament and get everybody jacked up about his game again, thus boosting the odds to unfavorable amounts (and given the public's betting affection for Tiger, this is not unlikely). Maybe injuries and mental fatigue have ruined the once immortal Tiger for good. But hey, that's gambling. There are no guarantees, just opportunities.



In the end, the risk may prove greater than the reward. But vise versa is possible, too, particularly if he keeps getting 20/1 odds.



Essentially, under this strategy you are betting on Tiger Woods, perhaps the greatest golfer of all-time, to win just one major in the next 2 1/2 years. Would you take that bet?

Tiger Tempting Bridgestone Bettors

The big golf news of the week (year) is that Tiger Woods will finally return from his physical and mental injuries and take part in the Bridgestone Invitational which begins tomorrow.

This is an event that Tiger has won seven times, and other golfers have won just five, so yeah, a lot of people are betting on Tiger Woods in his first tourney back.

We like Tiger as much as the next obscure sports betting/stocks website, but let's hold on just a minute. Bookmakers are enticing betters with great odds on Tiger, especially at an event he has historically dominated like none other. But keep in mind, this is his first event back, and with a new caddy at that. Let's give him a tourney to work out the kinks. Our prediction is that he does just that--and then goes on to win the PGA next weekend. But we think this is just a tune-up to prepare for next week.

Keep in mind that Tiger's list of goals looks like this: 1) majors; 2) everything else. Obviously, he would like to win the tournament, but he has his eye on an even bigger prize next week. Though it is extremely tempting to bet Tiger at a tournament he has won nearly 60 percent of the time at such favorable odds (currently 12/1 on Bodog after opening upwards of 20/1!), this is the only Bridgestone tourney in history in which we advise taking the field.

Now don't get us wrong, despite what his arbitrary ranking might tell you, we still think Tiger is the best golfer in the world. We just don't think he will be this weekend.

Bet American in the 2011 U.S. Open

No, this is not our version of a patriotic plea to support our home country. It's simply, in our view, the right play at this year's U.S. Open. An American will take this year's U.S. Open, which begins today for all you casual golf fans out here.

Take a look at the odds for some of the top golfers in the the 2011 U.S. Open golf tournament:

Lee Westwood 12/1
Luke Donald 12/1
Phil Mickelson 12/1
Rory McIlroy 16/1
Dustin Johnson 20/1
Steve Stricker 20/1
K.J. Choi 22/1
Matt Kuchar 22/1
Hunter Mahan 25/1
Nick Watney 25/1
Martin Kaymer 28/1
Bubba Watson 33/1
Adam Scott 40/1
Jason Day 40/1
Graeme McDowell 45/1
Brandt Snedeker 50/1
Charl Schwartzel 50/1
David Toms 50/1
Ian Poulter 50/1
Jim Furyk 50/1
Padraig Harrington 50/1
Retief Goosen 50/1
Rickie Fowler 50/1
Robert Karlsson 50/1

As you can see, there are plenty of Americans flying under the radar, including our two favorite picks (both featured in the above video), Bubba Watson (33/1) and Rickie Fowler (50/1), if he can get out of Hollister long enough to compete.

Young golfers like Fowler have been having more and more success on the big stage, and we expect another youngster to take the cake in Tiger Woods' absence in this major. Otherwise, we like the 30-something-year-old Watson, whose long drives make him a match for this freakishly long course. While all eyes are on a different lefty, Watson will emerge this weekend on the first Father's Day since his dad's death.

Either way, we are in for an entertaining weekend of golf action.

Surprise! We'll Take Tiger to Win

You know you're a good golfer when you're a 3/2 favorite in a major and the next best odds are 22/1.

Not that Tiger Woods didn't know he was a good golfer.

Still, at 3/2 odds, we like Tiger to win the PGA Championship this weekend. He hasn't missed out on winning a major since 2004, and we think the PGA Championship will save him this year, as it did in 2007.

Tiger has won the PGA Championship four times in his career, and has won his last two PGA Tour events. After missing the cut at The Open Championship in his last major, we like our chances for a rebound in the last major of the year.