2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) Prop Bet: The Postgame MVP Thank You

Leading up to the 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) between the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers, we'll be taking a look at Super Bowl proposition betting, or more specifically, the fun or funny Super Bowl 45 (XLV) prop bets that you hear so much about. That includes props on the Super Bowl coin toss, Super Bowl halftime show, Super Bowl National Anthem, Super Bowl postgame Gatorade Shower dump and much more. Follow along on the Super Bowl sidebar to the right!

We've got another Super Bowl prop bet that we're hoping will have you thanking us: The Postgame Thank You. The prop reads:

Who will the Super Bowl MVP of the game thank first?
Wager is on Interview done with the Super Bowl MVP on field during the Trophy Presentation only. If Co-MVP wager is on first to speak.
Coach +1000
Family +400
God +150
Teammates +250
Does Not Thank Anyone +200

This prop is a bit tricky in that it's up to the books judgement as far as what constitutes a thank you, and Bodog, among other online books, doesn't quite have a reputation for fairness in these situations.

When analyzing the Thankfulness prop, we first need to take a stab at who will win the Super Bowl MVP, which we've covered at length. Assuming that one of the quarterbacks wins, which we estimated as a 50% chance, the prop becomes who will Aaron Rodgers or Ben Roethlisberger thank first. The good news is that we have some video evidence of both of these star players at their respective AFC/NFC Championship trophy presentation ceremonies. The bad news is that the results are pretty inconclusive.

Take the Aaron Rodgers portion of the trophy presentation, for example. He doesn't ever say "I want to thank ____" or any variation of that, but he does say, "You gotta give credit to our defense." Now, is that technically a thank you? No. But we can envision a bookie giving credit for Rodgers "thanking" his teammates. Which is where things get sticky. If Rodgers is named the Super Bowl MVP and he's going to thank anyone, it will absolutely be his teammates, but whether or not the wording qualifies as a thank you is out of your hands.

Things don't get any easier for potential MVP Ben Roethlisberger. He is a lock to mention God now that he is re-making his image in the media and all that jazz. He's been mentioning God in almost every postgame interview he has done this season. Below, he says "God is good." A blanket statement that can be construed as a thank you, but not necessarily. He goes on to say "This one is for Steeler fans," another non-thank you thank you. So again, the wording isn't exactly clear.

So who will the Super Bowl MVP "thank" first in the postgame press conference? If you like the Packers, your best bet would be teammates. If you like the Steelers, go with God. Either way, we definitely recommend asking your book for clarification before delving into this one.

And yes, you can thank us later.

More prop betting action to come throughout this week, as we continue to look at some of the fun 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) prop bets while also diving into the heavy stuff--legitimate team and player proposition bets.

2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) Prop Bet: The Super Bowl MVP

Leading up to the 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) between the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers, we'll be taking a look at Super Bowl proposition betting, or more specifically, the fun or funny Super Bowl 45 (XLV) prop bets that you hear so much about. That includes props on the Super Bowl coin toss, Super Bowl halftime show, Super Bowl National Anthem, Super Bowl postgame Gatorade Shower dump and much more. Follow along on the Super Bowl sidebar to the right!

We take a slight break from the goofy prop bets to look at a more standard option--the 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) MVP.

Who will win the Super Bowl MVP?

Aaron Rodgers 7/4
James Starks 14/1
Brandon Jackson 50/1
Greg Jennings 12/1
Donald Driver 25/1
James Jones 30/1
Jordy Nelson 30/1
A.J. Hawk 30/1
Clay Matthews 18/1
B.J. Raji 30/1
Cullen Jenkins 50/1
Tramon Williams 25/1
Charles Woodson 20/1
Sam Shields 35/1

Ben Roethlisberger 7/2
Rashard Mendenhall 15/2
Mike Wallace 16/1
Hines Ward 25/1
Emmanuel Sanders 35/1
Heath Miller 25/1
Troy Polamalu 15/1
James Harrison 22/1
James Farrior 28/1
Lawrence Timmons 28/1

Field 15/1

Before determining who will win the Most Valuable Player Award in the Super Bowl, you must first decide your pick to win the game--the Packers or Steelers. The losing team simply will not have a player win the MVP--as has happened once in 1971 when Chuck Howley of the Cowboys won the award despite a loss the Colts in Super Bowl V (5). Howley refused to even accept the award, which he found meaningless after the loss, so you can bank on that result never happening again.

When you make your pick for the eventual Super Bowl champion, you can eliminate half of your above options for the MVP. Beyond that, it gets tricky, but you can narrow it down to an educated guess.

For example, like the Super Bowl coin toss prop bet, we are essentially dealing with a 50/50 proposition here--a quarterback has won the award 52% of the time (23/44). However, when the Steelers have been in the Super Bowl, only Terry Bradshaws back-to-back MVPs have been won by a quarterback, giving them just a 33% historical chance at a QB (2/6) winning the award. The Packers, thanks to Bart Starr's back-to-back awards, are 67% (2/3).

Most importantly from the above figures is that Ben Roethlisberger has not won the award. In the Steelers past two Super Bowls, his receivers Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward, respectively, have won the award. Given that he has not won it, and given the tendency to automatically give the QB the award (Peyton Manning over Dominic Rhodes in Super Bowl XLI is evidence of that), we like Roethlisberger's odds of 7/2. Like the previous Super Bowl winning QB in Pittsburgh, Terry Bradshaw, two position players have won the award in his first two cracks, but we anticipate the third time being the charm should the Steelers defeat the Packers.

If we had to make a wild card selection for the Steelers (aka not a QB), we would say Rashard Mendenhall. Mendenhall ran tough throughout the playoffs and looks determined to get a ring as a member of the active roster (unlike in Super Bowl XLIII when he was injured; not sure whether or not he was included in the team photo). Getting 15/2 odds isn't bad for the running back, though an RB has not won since Terrell Davis in Super Bowl XXXII (32).

As for the Packers, the fact that they are favored to win means that Aaron Rodgers' odds (7/4) are slightly better than Roethlisberger's, and he will rightfully be a popular pick for the Super Bowl MVP should the Packers win it all. Otherwise, keep an eye on Greg Jennings at 12/1, or even some of his other targets. The way the Packers throw the ball it is far more likely that a WR win the award rather than a RB.

While both teams have good defenses and could potentially have a defensive player win the award (Sam Shields or B.J. Raji likely would have captured the award in the NFC Championship game, if one were given), a defender typically has to make multiple big plays in order to win the award, and even then it is rare.

Only eight defensive players in total (including co-MVPs in Super Bowl XII) have won the Super Bowl MVP, as well as one special teams player--Packer fans might remember Desmond Howard's big returns making him the MVP of Super Bowl XXXI (31), surprisingly over Brett Favre and his three touchdowns (two passing, one rushing).

While it can happen, this is again about making as educated a bet as possible. Some names are thrown on the list of potential MVPs (such as Brandon Jackson at 50/1) simply to entice the loads of public money on some unlikely players. Stray from the random bets and stick with what we know. In theory, if quarterbacks win the award about 50 percent of the time, and there are two quarterbacks in the game, our math gives us just over a 25 percent chance on either QB choice.

So whether you like the Packers or Steelers to win the game, expect Aaron Rodgers or Ben Roethlisberger to take this year's MVP. The quarterback play is simply too good in this one to pass up.

Thursday is the big day when many books release the official numbers on some of the standard props--as well as bucket load of funny proposition bets. Check back tomorrow for our take on some of the whackier prop bets of 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45).

Free Super Bowl Pick

We hope you've enjoyed our 2009 Super Bowl 43 Prop Bet Spectacular, as it has been fun for us. All of those prop bets can be found on the upper right hand side of this very page, so check them out if you missed them. 

Now, though, it's time to pick the actual game. So, without further ado, here is our Free Super Bowl Pick. 

Cardinals +7 over the Steelers

Maybe the Cards won't win it, but they'll certainly be in it. The Super Bowl in recent years has become a very hard fought game, and it's now rare to find a complete mismatch, even if it looks like it should be on paper.

Just ask people who thought the Patriots would kill the Giants last year. 

People like us. 

Everybody knows about the Cardinals explosive offense, but we think the defense will make the difference for Arizona. 

Karlos Dansby. Adrian Wilson. Bertrand Berry. This is a very underrated group that has come into its own a bit in the playoffs. Ben Roethlisberger, even without the injuries he carries into the game, will have a hard time with this unit. 

We're not ready to pick the Cardinals straight up, but we certainly like taking them with seven points in their favor. 

So, despite our website's color layout suggesting that we might like the Steelers, we think we're playing our Cards right by backing Arizona. 

Super Bowl XLIII Prop Bets: Steelers Players

Leading up to the Super Bowl, we'll be taking a look at various proposition bets for the 2009 Super Bowl, Super Bowl 43, Super Bowl XLIII, The Big Game, or whatever you want to call it. You can check out previous prop bet analysis on the upper right sidebar.

Earlier, we gave you three Cardinals players props that we see good value in. Now, as you might have guessed, it's the Steelers turn.

Hines Ward OVER 69 1/2 receiving yards (EVEN)

Talk all you want the injury to Hines Ward, but if he plays (which he will), he'll produce. Taking the under is the trendy play, due to the injury, but if Ward is on the field, he's Ben Roethlisberger's go-to guy.

Hines has eclipsed the 69 1/2 yard mark in four of his last five games, missing the mark only in the Ravens game when he suffered his knee injury and had to leave with just 55 yards. Santonio Holmes might put up some nice numbers, but Ward will rise to the occassion as well. With this prop at even odds, you should do the same.

Nate Washington UNDER 34 1/2 receiving yards (EVEN)

With Hines playing, Nate Washington won't be getting that increase in looks that some might have expected him to get. He hasn't crossed the 34 1/2 yard mark in any of his last three games, posting totals of just 13, 30, and 21.

Like the Ward bet, this prop is for even money. While there is a good chance that both hit, there's a great chance that you'll at least get one, which means you won't lose any juice if you go 1-1. Still, expect to go 2-0 on these two.

Mewelde Moore UNDER 27 1/2 rushing and receiving yards combined (-110)

Mewelde Moore did an admirable job filling in for Willie Parker earlier this season, but it's Willie's show now. Mewelde got just two touches in the AFC Championship, and his role has been largely reduced in the playoffs. His totals of 25 and then 15 yards in the two playoff games for the Steelers show that they are slowly going away from Mewelde "not getting the ball any" Moore.

There's more Super Bowl 43 prop bet coverage to come here at Stock Lemon, so go ahead and bookmark us and get yourself back here before Super Sunday.

Super Bowl XLIII Prop Bet: The Thankfulness

Leading up to the Super Bowl, we'll be taking a look at various proposition bets for the 2009 Super Bowl, Super Bowl 43, Super Bowl XLIII, The Big Game, or whatever you want to call it. You can check out previous prop bet analysis on the upper right sidebar.



Before we begin, we'd like to thank all of our readers, for coming here to check out some analysis on Super Bowl 43 Proposition Bets.



With that out of the way, let's get to the next post-game prop bet: The Thankfulness.



The exact wording of this particular prop is: Who will the Super Bowl MVP of the Game thank first?



And your choices are:



God... 4/5

Family... 4/1

Teammates... 2/1

Coach... 9/1

Does Not Thank Anyone... 5/1



First off, we think it's a little weird that fans aren't included as an option, and there isn't even the choice of "other." But, with the options that are given, we're praying that we know who will be thanked first--the man upstairs.



Our reason for this is simple. While many players thank God after games, the most likely MVP candidates are always the quarterbacks.



In this case, Cardinals Kurt Warner just happens to be a Jesus freak and always thanks God, or Jesus (which can be used interchangeably for this prop), following games, including in the post-game interview following the NFC Championship victory.







Warner's extreme religious beliefs might have been enough to attract us to God as the winner of this prop bet, but as an added bonus, it appears that Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is also giving thanks to the man above, as seen at the AFC Championship post-game festivities.







We think that saying "the Lord is good" counts as giving thanks to God, which means that in both Championship games, the quarterbacks thanked God.

At 4/5 odds, we like our chances.

Hopefully, we'll thank God for giving us this prop bet.



For more NFL odds check out BetFirms.com.

The Steelers Have the Edge

Even without Willie Parker, if we had to play tonight's Monday Night Football game, the play is the Steelers -6.

Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense should be able to overcome a tough Ravens defense tonight.

Enjoy the game.

Redskins and an Under Give Us 2-1 Day

The Eagles and Steelers combined for just 21 points today, which isn't even half of the 45 points set as the over/under.

We got some help in the game with injuries to stars Ben Roethlisberger and Brian Westbrook, but we'll take them how we can get them. The solid D by newly acquired Philly corner Asante Samuel (who had a pick) and the rest of the Eagles en route to a 15-6 victory didn't hurt us, either.

This under, along with the Redskins covering a -3 spread in a 24-17 win over the Cardinals, gives us a 2-1 day and improves our Free NFL Picks to 7-4 on the year.

We hope to increase upon our 64% so far in the NFL with a Monday Night play tomorrow, so check back and make some more cash with us tomorrow!