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Thursday, February 3, 2011

2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) Prop Bet: The Green Bay Packers Player Props

We've gone through countless of fun 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) prop bets that don't exactly feature this year's participants in the game, the Steelers and Packers. That changes today as we dissect some of the valuable player props available for both teams.

First off, let's take a look at the Packers.

Total TD Passes – Aaron Rodgers
OVER 2 (+105)

We're counting on a big game from Aaron Rodgers, and think that the worst case scenario with this prop, and maybe most likely, is that it pushes at 2. To get +105 for anything over is a bonus.

Total INT - Aaron Rodgers
UNDER 1/2 (+135)

Just as we think Rodgers should be able to find the end zone, we are banking on him not finding any Steelers. Save for a boneheaded red zone pick in the NFC Championship, Rodgers has been nearly flawless during the Packers run to the Super Bowl.

Total Receiving Yards - Donald Driver
UNDER 45 1/2 (EVEN)

Donald Driver is a big name, but at this point in his career, you can argue he is the fourth best option on the team at the moment. We expect bigger days from Jordy Nelson and Mr. Inconsistent, James Jones.

Total Receptions - Jordy Nelson
OVER 3 1/2 (-120)

To prove to you that we expect big things out of Jordy Nelson, we're putting our money where our mouths are. We take a bit of juice on here, but after being held without a catch in the first playoff game, Jordy has grabbed 15 balls in the last two. Even with the goose egg, that's an average of 5 catches per game. We like our odds here.

Total Sacks - Clay Matthews
UNDER 1/2 (+175)

Lastly, and maybe most controversially, we don't think the Claymaker will make any Clays... or plays. At least not in the form of a sack. Clay had a hot start to the season, but was slowed by injuries and newly implemented defensive schemes late in the season. You can bet the Steelers are game planning for the Packers biggest impact player defensively, and you can bet it will pay off. Clay will get pressure, and the Packers will get sacks based off of him simply running Ben Roethlisberger into a teammates open arms, but Clay won't get the credit in the box score.

That does it for our preview of the Packers player prop bets in the Super Bowl. We'll take a look at the Steelers player prop bets tomorrow.

Monday, January 31, 2011

2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) Prop Bet: The Brett Favre Mentions

Sure, Aaron Rodgers has led the Packers to a Super Bowl. Sure, he's won as many playoff games this season as his predecessor Brett Favre won in his last 10 years with the Packers. But to many--be it in the media or at the water cooler--Rodgers is still in the shadow of the man who has quarterbacked the division rival Minnesota Vikings for the past two seasons. And that brings us to our next 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) prop bet.

While Aaron Rodgers and surely many Packer fans have probably had just about enough of the constant mentions of Brett Favre on various broadcasts and in print, we're more than happy to watch members of the media babble on about Favre when talking about Rodgers--because we know two media members who won't be doing that.

Check out the Super Bowl prop that has been created as a result of the Favre/Rodgers saga:

How Many Times will FOX mention “Brett Favre” on TV during the Game?
Wager is on the number of times“Brett Favre”will be mentioned on TV during the Game (from kick off until final whistle). Live commentary only, Any Taped or Past Video does not count towards wager, must say“Brett Favre”exactly.
Over 2.5 (-140)

UNDER 2.5 (EVEN)

To many in the public who have been hearing Favre/Rodgers comparisons ad nauseam for the past three seasons (and especially for the casual football fans attracted to fun Super Bowl proposition betting), this looks like a steal. How could the FOX broadcast not mention Brett Favre at least three times during the Super Bowl?

Well, we can assure you, they won't. The broadcast team of Joe Buck and Troy Aikman have literally called the last five Packer games, and they've had plenty opportunity to talk about Favre over that time. And while they've mentioned No. 4 every so often, they aren't the ones in the media beating us to death on this topic.

During today's 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) Media Day, and throughout the rest of the week, you'll hear all about Favre as you have up to this point. But come game day, you can count on Buck and Aikman focusing on the players on the field and recognizing that this is Aaron Rodger's show in a game between the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers.

And, of course, the loophole that requires the announcers to use the entire name "Brett Favre" doesn't hurt. Everybody knows who the Packers previous quarterback was, which allows for vague mentions about "replacing a legend" or living up to "that other guy."

So while the pre-game Super Bowl hype, including the pre-game shows leading right up to the game on Sunday, and post-game might throw around F(avre)-bombs like nothing, we're predicting that that won't be the case during the actual game, as the prop specifies (kickoff to the final whistle). We predict one full Brett Favre mention--if that--but certainly no more, and certainly not three (more than 2 1/2).

Sunday, January 30, 2011

2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) Prop Bet: The Postgame MVP Thank You

We've got another Super Bowl prop bet that we're hoping will have you thanking us: The Postgame Thank You. The prop reads:

Who will the Super Bowl MVP of the game thank first?
Wager is on Interview done with the Super Bowl MVP on field during the Trophy Presentation only. If Co-MVP wager is on first to speak.
Coach +1000
Family +400
God +150
Teammates +250
Does Not Thank Anyone +200

This prop is a bit tricky in that it's up to the books judgement as far as what constitutes a thank you, and Bodog, among other online books, doesn't quite have a reputation for fairness in these situations.

When analyzing the Thankfulness prop, we first need to take a stab at who will win the Super Bowl MVP, which we've covered at length. Assuming that one of the quarterbacks wins, which we estimated as a 50% chance, the prop becomes who will Aaron Rodgers or Ben Roethlisberger thank first. The good news is that we have some video evidence of both of these star players at their respective AFC/NFC Championship trophy presentation ceremonies. The bad news is that the results are pretty inconclusive.

Take the Aaron Rodgers portion of the trophy presentation, for example. He doesn't ever say "I want to thank ____" or any variation of that, but he does say, "You gotta give credit to our defense." Now, is that technically a thank you? No. But we can envision a bookie giving credit for Rodgers "thanking" his teammates. Which is where things get sticky. If Rodgers is named the Super Bowl MVP and he's going to thank anyone, it will absolutely be his teammates, but whether or not the wording qualifies as a thank you is out of your hands.

Things don't get any easier for potential MVP Ben Roethlisberger. He is a lock to mention God now that he is re-making his image in the media and all that jazz. He's been mentioning God in almost every postgame interview he has done this season. Below, he says "God is good." A blanket statement that can be construed as a thank you, but not necessarily. He goes on to say "This one is for Steeler fans," another non-thank you thank you. So again, the wording isn't exactly clear.

So who will the Super Bowl MVP "thank" first in the postgame press conference? If you like the Packers, your best bet would be teammates. If you like the Steelers, go with God. Either way, we definitely recommend asking your book for clarification before delving into this one.

And yes, you can thank us later.

More prop betting action to come throughout this week, as we continue to look at some of the fun 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) prop bets while also diving into the heavy stuff--legitimate team and player proposition bets.

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) Prop Bet: The Super Bowl MVP

We take a slight break from the goofy prop bets to look at a more standard option--the 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) MVP.

Who will win the Super Bowl MVP?

Aaron Rodgers 7/4
James Starks 14/1
Brandon Jackson 50/1
Greg Jennings 12/1
Donald Driver 25/1
James Jones 30/1
Jordy Nelson 30/1
A.J. Hawk 30/1
Clay Matthews 18/1
B.J. Raji 30/1
Cullen Jenkins 50/1
Tramon Williams 25/1
Charles Woodson 20/1
Sam Shields 35/1

Ben Roethlisberger 7/2
Rashard Mendenhall 15/2
Mike Wallace 16/1
Hines Ward 25/1
Emmanuel Sanders 35/1
Heath Miller 25/1
Troy Polamalu 15/1
James Harrison 22/1
James Farrior 28/1
Lawrence Timmons 28/1

Field 15/1

Before determining who will win the Most Valuable Player Award in the Super Bowl, you must first decide your pick to win the game--the Packers or Steelers. The losing team simply will not have a player win the MVP--as has happened once in 1971 when Chuck Howley of the Cowboys won the award despite a loss the Colts in Super Bowl V (5). Howley refused to even accept the award, which he found meaningless after the loss, so you can bank on that result never happening again.

When you make your pick for the eventual Super Bowl champion, you can eliminate half of your above options for the MVP. Beyond that, it gets tricky, but you can narrow it down to an educated guess.

For example, like the Super Bowl coin toss prop bet, we are essentially dealing with a 50/50 proposition here--a quarterback has won the award 52% of the time (23/44). However, when the Steelers have been in the Super Bowl, only Terry Bradshaws back-to-back MVPs have been won by a quarterback, giving them just a 33% historical chance at a QB (2/6) winning the award. The Packers, thanks to Bart Starr's back-to-back awards, are 67% (2/3).

Most importantly from the above figures is that Ben Roethlisberger has not won the award. In the Steelers past two Super Bowls, his receivers Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward, respectively, have won the award. Given that he has not won it, and given the tendency to automatically give the QB the award (Peyton Manning over Dominic Rhodes in Super Bowl XLI is evidence of that), we like Roethlisberger's odds of 7/2. Like the previous Super Bowl winning QB in Pittsburgh, Terry Bradshaw, two position players have won the award in his first two cracks, but we anticipate the third time being the charm should the Steelers defeat the Packers.

If we had to make a wild card selection for the Steelers (aka not a QB), we would say Rashard Mendenhall. Mendenhall ran tough throughout the playoffs and looks determined to get a ring as a member of the active roster (unlike in Super Bowl XLIII when he was injured; not sure whether or not he was included in the team photo). Getting 15/2 odds isn't bad for the running back, though an RB has not won since Terrell Davis in Super Bowl XXXII (32).

As for the Packers, the fact that they are favored to win means that Aaron Rodgers' odds (7/4) are slightly better than Roethlisberger's, and he will rightfully be a popular pick for the Super Bowl MVP should the Packers win it all. Otherwise, keep an eye on Greg Jennings at 12/1, or even some of his other targets. The way the Packers throw the ball it is far more likely that a WR win the award rather than a RB.

While both teams have good defenses and could potentially have a defensive player win the award (Sam Shields or B.J. Raji likely would have captured the award in the NFC Championship game, if one were given), a defender typically has to make multiple big plays in order to win the award, and even then it is rare.

Only eight defensive players in total (including co-MVPs in Super Bowl XII) have won the Super Bowl MVP, as well as one special teams player--Packer fans might remember Desmond Howard's big returns making him the MVP of Super Bowl XXXI (31), surprisingly over Brett Favre and his three touchdowns (two passing, one rushing).

While it can happen, this is again about making as educated a bet as possible. Some names are thrown on the list of potential MVPs (such as Brandon Jackson at 50/1) simply to entice the loads of public money on some unlikely players. Stray from the random bets and stick with what we know. In theory, if quarterbacks win the award about 50 percent of the time, and there are two quarterbacks in the game, our math gives us just over a 25 percent chance on either QB choice.

So whether you like the Packers or Steelers to win the game, expect Aaron Rodgers or Ben Roethlisberger to take this year's MVP. The quarterback play is simply too good in this one to pass up.

Thursday is the big day when many books release the official numbers on some of the standard props--as well as bucket load of funny proposition bets. Check back tomorrow for our take on some of the whackier prop bets of 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45).

Monday, January 24, 2011

Early 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) Prop Bets

Leading up to the 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) between the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers, we'll be taking a look at Super Bowl proposition betting, or more specifically, the fun or funny Super Bowl 45 (XLV) prop bets that you hear so much about. That includes props on the Super Bowl coin toss, Super Bowl halftime show, Super Bowl National Anthem, Super Bowl postgame Gatorade Shower dump and much more. Follow along on the Super Bowl sidebar to the right!

As your unofficial home for all things Super Bowl prop betting, we wanted to give you an idea of what to expect in your proposition betting adventures over the course of the next two weeks leading up to The Big Game.

Here are some standard and generic prop bets that will be offered for the matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers.

For starters, some of which we mentioned earlier this morning, here are some of the fun and wacky Super Bowl prop bets we look forward to every year:

How long will the National Anthem last? This will be an over/under, usually somewhere between 1:30-2:00. This year, the Star Spangled Banner will be performed by Christina Aguilera.
How many times the announcers will say ____? This could be the name of a player not involved in the game but heavily mentioned in the pre-game hype. Brett Favre is an obvious possibility.
How many times will cameras show ____? This could again be a famous person or player not involved in the game but in attendance. Not President Barack Obama, evidently.
Will this be the highest rated Super Bowl ever? With two large fan bases in the Packers and Steelers, this will be attainable. This year's Super Bowl will air on FOX.)
What color will the liquid poured on the winning coach be? One of our favorites, this will be a multiple choice question. Just pick a color, simple as that.
Who will the game MVP thank first? It could be teammates, a higher power, God, parents, fans, etc.
What songs will the halftime entertainer sing? The Black Eyed Peas are this year's halftime act. You can always expect their biggest hits to be played, but there is usually a wild card or two thrown in there.
Will the coin toss be heads or tails? Very easy to bet on. Very popular bet. Yes, there is a correlation between the two.
Which Super Bowl commercial will have the highest rating according to the USA Today's annual ad meter? Here, you'll bet on which company will be advertised in the top commercial. Beer makers, soft drink producers, and some of the other major Super Bowl advertisers will be options.
Which game will be higher scoring, the Super Bowl or _____? Variations of this will exist, asking whether the Super Bowl score will be higher than a college basketball game on Super Sunday, or if a quarterback will have more completions than a basketball player has points, etc.

Aside from the fun props, here's a general list of what to expect:

First, there are your regular lines. The Packers opened at -2 favorites with an over/under set at 45. Don't feel like you have to bet on those, though. Those lines will be different on a quarter-by-quarter basis and updated as the game goes on. The basic bets look like this:

Spread
Moneyline
First half line
First quarter line
Second quarter line
Third quarter line
Fourth quarter line (not including overtime)
Over/Under

Then you get a little more specific:

Total points scored by the home team (Packers)
Total points scored by the visiting team (Steelers)
First team to score
Last team to score
Will the last team to score win the game?
Will there be a score in the last two minutes of the first half?
Will either team score three unanswered times?
Will there be a score in the first six and a half minutes of the game?
Which team will have the longest touchdown?
Will there be a successful two-point conversion?
Will there be a safety?
Which half will have the highest point score?
Which quarter will have the highest point score?
Will the home team ever have the lead?
Which team will commit the first turnover?
Which team will use the coaches' challenge first?
Which team will be the first to call a timeout?
Will there be overtime?
Which team will get the first penalty?

Then, as we inch closer to the game, we'll have plenty of player props:

Who will have more yards between a Packers RB/WR (such as Greg Jennings) and Steelers RB/WR (such as Hines Ward)?
Who will have more tackles between a Packers defender (such as Clay Matthews) or Steelers defender (such as James Harrison)?
How many yards will a team's star player (such as Aaron Rodgers) have? Answers will be in increments. For example: Between 200-240; Between 240-280, etc.)

Now that you know what to expect, you can expect to find more in-depth coverage of the above proposition bets right here at Stock Lemon. Tomorrow we will begin with our very detailed coverage of some of these aforementioned prop bets as we try to make prop betting profitable during the 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) between the Packers and Steelers.

Saturday, January 15, 2011

Rodgers and Packers Improve Free NFL Playoff Picks to 3-0

We interrupt our regularly scheduled posts featuring scantily-clad young ladies to show you something that, to those wagering on the Packers Saturday, is even sexier.

Aaron Rodgers is the reason we felt confident in our Free NFL Pick of the Packers +2 1/2 over the Falcons, and his play has helped those very picks to a 3-0 playoff start.

The Packers and Steelers have made it to the Final Four in the NFL and will await their opponents on Sunday. We'll pick up the coverage of those match-ups as the Super Bowl nears, and we may even have some 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) proposition wagers prior to the Super Bowl matchup even being determined.

And, of course, once our Super Bowl teams are set in stone, the prop betting fun really begins when we take a look at some of the wackier prop bets of Super Bowl 45, including the coin toss, Gatorade dump and National Anthem.

As a reminder, our Free NFL Pick for Sunday's slate of games:

Jets +9 1/2 over the Patriots

Good luck and stay with us throughout the NFL Playoffs as we close in on our expansive Super Bowl gambling coverage!

Saturday, August 14, 2010

2010 Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterbacks

We've been teasing you for weeks, but finally we are ready to unveil or 2010 Fantasy Football Rankings. Naturally, we'll start with quarterbacks. As you'll see, we've ranked them into tiers, which are listed after their team name.

1. Aaron Rodgers GB 1
2. Drew Brees NO 1
3. Peyton Manning IND 1
4. Tony Romo DAL 1
5. Philip Rivers SD 2
6. Tom Brady NE 2
7. Matt Schaub HOU 2
8. Jay Cutler CHI 3
9. Brett Favre MIN 3
10. Eli Manning NYG 3
11. Carson Palmer CIN 4
12. Joe Flacco BAL 4
13. Matt Ryan ATL 4
14. Donovan McNabb WAS 4
15. Kevin Kolb PHI 4
16. Vince Young TEN 5
17. Alex Smith SF 5
18. Matt Stafford DET 5
19. Matt Cassell KC 5

20. Ben Roethlisberger PIT 6
21. Chad Henne MIA 6
22. David Garrard JAC 6
23. Kyle Orton DEN 6
24. Mark Sanchez NYJ 6
25. Matt Leinart ARI 6

Stay tuned for more rankings to come!

Sunday, January 31, 2010

Free 2010 NFL Pro Bowl Picks

As we prepare for non-stop coverage this week leading up to the 2010 Super Bowl XLIV (44), we make a pit stop at the Pro Bowl, played in the Great 48 for the first time in decades.

We are in Miami to cover the Super Bowl, and we will get that chance on Media Day, but we are not going to the Pro Bowl, instead spending time with our trusty laptop in the hotel room--all for your benefit!

So, without further ado, here are our Free 2010 NFL Pro Bowl Picks:

NFC -3 over the AFC

OVER 58

In a game where anything can really happen, we are always tempted to just go with the underdog and take the points. In this case, though, the quarterback play in the AFC is questionable at best, and we just can't bet against the trio of Aaron Rodgers, Donovan McNabb and Tony Romo. QB play is everything in the high-scoring Pro Bowl--at least that's what we are banking on.

Speaking of high-scoring, the Pro Bowl almost always is. And in a game where anything can happen, prepare for everything to happen.

If our coverage isn't enough for you, be sure to head on over to Doc's Sports. Check out their Sports Interaction Review or place some bets through them at Pinnacle Sportsbook.

More Super Bowl prop betting analysis will follow today, as well as updates from Miami throughout the week, so make Stock Lemon your home (page) for Super Bowl XLIV (44) coverage!

Saturday, October 31, 2009

Bet on Brett: Brett Favre vs. Aaron Rodgers Props

What's that? Brett Favre is returning to Lambeau Field to play the Packers for the first time as a Viking? Why haven't we heard anything about this yet?

Ok, so we have. But we haven't posted any proposition bets on it yet! So, without further delay, here are our picks in the Favre Bowl II matchup between Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre. Winners are in bold.

Who will have more completions Week 8 of the 2009 NFL Regular Season?

Both players must start game for wagers to have action.

Brett Favre (MIN)	+1½ (+105)
Aaron Rodgers (GB)	-1½ (-135)

Brett Favre – Total Passing Yards Week 8 vs the Green Bay Packers

Player must start game for wagers to have action.

Over

250½

(EVEN)o
(-130)u

Under

Brett Favre – Total TD Passes Week 8 vs the Green Bay Packers

Player must start game for wagers to have action.

Over

1½	(-150)o (+120)u

Under

Brett Favre – Total Interceptions Week 8 vs the Green Bay Packers

Player must start game for wagers to have action.

Over

1	(+135)o (-165)u

Under

What will be the result of Brett Favre’s first pass at Lambeau Field Week 8 vs the Green Bay Packers?

Player must play in game for wagers to have action.

Complete	2/5
Incomplete	19/10
Interception	25/2

What will be the result of Brett Favre’s last pass at Lambeau Field Week 8 vs the Green Bay Packers?

Player must play in game for wagers to have action.

Complete	1/2
Incomplete	31/20
Interception	10/1

Aaron Rodgers – Total Passing Yards Week 8 vs the Minnesota Vikings

Player must start game for wagers to have action.

Over

270½

(-125)o
(-105)u

Under

Aaron Rodgers – Total Sacks Week 8 vs the Minnesota Vikings

Player must start game for wagers to have action.

Over

3½	(-120)o (-110)u

Under

Who will have more completions Week 8 of the 2009 NFL Regular Season?

Both players must start game for wagers to have action.

Brett Favre (GB)	+1½ (-115)
Aaron Rodgers (GB)	-1½ (-115)

Our biggest surprise of the bunch is taking Favre 10/1 to throw a pick as his last pass at Lambeau. Not so surprising, though, when you consider that his last pass at Lambeau to date was a costly pick to ruin his team's chances at a Super Bowl.

Good luck!

Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Stock Watch: Screw It Here's Julie Henderson

We've been updating you regularly on some casino stocks we've been watching, and we were planning on another update today. Unfortunately, the market didn't do so hot, so we don't really feel like talking about it. Fortunately, that means we'll randomly post a picture of some eye candy to take our minds off the market.

Per The Bucky Channel, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has a new gal pal, Sports Illustrated model Julie Henderson. So, naturally, here's a picture of Henderson sporting a Packers cap.

Okay, it's actually a Grambling State hat, but they use the same logo.

We'll update you on our casino stocks watchlist shortly, but until then, pictures of models will have to suffice.

Sunday, October 12, 2008

Eagles and Packers Both Cover

We told you to go with the 2-3 teams today, and so far if you took our advice, you'd be 2-0.

The Eagles came back to beat the 49ers by a count of 40-26, covering a -4 1/2 point spread, while the Packers covered a +1 1/2 point spread with a 27-17 victory over the Seahawks.

The quarterbacks were key in both of these victories, with Donovan McNabb and Aaron Rodgers putting together great performances to get us a couple of covers.

Our Free NFL Picks are 2-0 so far today, and we're hoping the Chargers can make it 3-0 with a cover against the Patriots tonight. Overall, our Free NFL Pick record is now 11-5-1, which is 69%.

We hope you played these games with us today and made some extra cash for yourself.

Sunday, September 14, 2008

Patriots and Packers Win For 2-0 Day

Yes, folks, that is a Patriots quarterback celebrating after a nice victory and cover for Stock Lemon. No, folks, that is not Tom Brady.

In for the injured Brady, Matt Cassel did enough to lead the Patriots to a 19-10 victory over the Jets, which covers the +1 1/2 and gives us a Game of the Week win.

The Pats D made Brett Favre look... well... old, and the AFC champs continue to dominate the regular season.

Speaking of Favre, his old team in Green Bay also won us some money, with a 48-25 stomping of the Lions. It got close for a while, but Aaron Rodgers and the Pack pulled away to make the -3 spread look foolish.

After a 2-0 day in the NFL, our Free NFL Picks are now 5-2 to start the young season, which is an impressive 71%. Make sure to check back every weekend for more free winners in the NFL.

Take the Patriots and Packers

As you might have guessed from our earlier post this week tracking the line movement in the game, the Patriots/Jets showdown this Sunday is our Game of the Week. And yes, we still like the Patriots.

Patriots +1 1/2 over the Jets

The Patriots might not have Tom Brady, but Matt Cassel can and will just chuck it up to Randy Moss all day long. The Patriots shouldn't miss a beat.

Also, we have just one other play for Sunday, and it involves another quarterback getting a lack of respect. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, despite a strong showing on Monday night, are just three-point favorites in Detroit this week. This line has great value, so get on it!

Packers -3 over Lions

Again, our Free NFL Picks this week are the Patriots and the Packers. These same picks started off with a 60% Week 1, so we're expecting a couple of more wins today.

Good luck!

Thursday, February 3, 2011

Monday, January 31, 2011

Sunday, January 30, 2011

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Monday, January 24, 2011

Saturday, January 15, 2011

Saturday, August 14, 2010

Sunday, January 31, 2010

Saturday, October 31, 2009

Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Sunday, October 12, 2008

Sunday, September 14, 2008

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