Giving Thanks For Our Free Picks

We had a little better record this past weekend, going 3-1 in the NFL and a still below-average 2-2 in NCAA Football, but hey, anything to take our minds off of the week prior.

And this week provides another opportunity to forget about the losses we've had and give thanks for the wins, and hope that more are to come.

While you stuff your face with turkey today, stuff your wallet with this Free NFL Pick. Of course, more picks will follow this weekend, but let this fulfill your hunger for betting action tomorrow.

Patriots -7 over the Lions

The Lions have been a tough out on Thanksgiving, but not this tough. The Patriots should come prepared to take down a depleted Lions team fading fast.

And if the Patriots don't come through, at least you'll eat well watching it.

Good luck and happy Thanksgiving!

Betting on Brett Favre's Vikings

Boy, John David Booty got old.

Wait a minute, that's Brett Favre!

Bettors are in a frenzy today as the longtime Packer and one time Jet wore purple for the first time in his career, going against everything that anybody has ever known about football.

So, how can bettors profit off of this move? The obvious answer is that they can't. Those who wanted to bet on the Vikings to win the NFC North or the Super Bowl should have done so while they were debating between Sage Rosenfels and Tarvaris Jackson--knowing the Favre would eventually decide to retire from retirement. (Those same people could also make some coin by re-selling season tickets).

The inevitability of this move made it easy for bettors to get a good price on the Vikings, but for those who didn't make like a gunslinger and pound the Favre-less Vikings, you're out of luck as far as bargain bin prices.

There is good news, though. You can still bet a different team to win the NFC North, and at better odds! We're of the thinking that the Bears or Packers will win this division either way, and in our case, we're glad we held off until Favre signed to make our pick.

Here's a look at the current odds to win the North:

Vikings 31/20

Bears 17/10

Packers 9/4

Lions 15/1

Not bad, but if you're going to play this one, hold off a bit. Wait for the public to hit the Vikings hard in the next few days and you'll get an even better price.

The Super Bowl odds for the NFC North teams look like this:

Vikings 12/1

Bears 15/1

Packers 24/1

Lions 100/1

We wouldn't recommend any of these, as we don't think the NFC North will represent the conference in the Super Bowl, but still. These numbers are just beginning to tempt us. As we said, the coming days should give us even more to think about as the odds on the Vikings to win it all continue to move based on public betting.

To sum it up, if you're looking at betting on Favre's Vikings, take a pass. Unless, of course, you're banking on him retiring again.

'76 Buccaneers Not About to Bow to '08 Lions

We noticed something strange when reading on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' official website about the team's plans to wear throwback jerseys this year.

Per the article:

"That led to a memorable 0-16 season for the inaugural Buccaneers, not an accomplishment to be celebrated, by any means, but not a time to be forgotten, either."

The 2008 Detroit Lions become the first team to go 0-16, and the 0-14 Buccaneers of 1976 won't even let them have that!

Sorry Bucs, but you'll have to wait until after this season to steal the Lions' thunder.

Detroit Lions Unveil New Logo

Okay, that's a cheap shot. 

The good news for the Lions is that they can improve on that 0-16 mark by adding some pieces in the upcoming NFL Draft. 

Check out both of their picks in our own 2009 NFL Mock Draft. 

2009 NFL Mock Draft: Picks 17-20

We continue to work hard during the weekend, as for the second day in a row, we're revealing the next four picks in our 2009 NFL Mock Draft, rather than just three. So go ahead, check out the other installments of our mock draft on the upper right-hand side of our site, and then check out these next four picks. 

In this edition, it's all about reaching, baby. 

17. Jets: Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State

The reaching begins with the Jets selection of Freeman. We don't think Freeman will be a bad quarterback in the league, but this pick is the definition of drafting for need. The Jets don't have a legitimate quarterback, and Freeman is available to fill that void. The Jets could make a move out of this pick to try and get one of the top two quarterbacks, but we think they'll end up sticking around and taking the player that falls to them (and would likely fall to them if they picked 15-20 spots from now). 

18. Broncos: Brian Cushing, LB, USC

Let the reaching continue! Though some might say that us calling this pick a reach is reaching on our part. A lot of people really like Cushing for his leadership and consistent play, but we're not sure his skills will translate at the NFL level. The Broncos are banking on those skills translating as they look to re-tool their defense for the 3-4. Cushing is a relatively safe pick and probably will do alright in the NFL, but we don't see a whole lot of potential or upside (terms that draft experts love to use). Depending on how much the Broncos like him, they could look at Cushing with their earlier pick in the first round--which would definitely be a reach. Either way, except defense out of the Broncos with both the 12th and 18th picks in the draft. 

19. Buccanneers: Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss

Jerry is a reach here in the draft because his position isn't all that great in this particular draft. There are about five legitimate defensive tackles available this year, and team's will be reaching for most of them. Jerry fits into the 4-3 front in Tampa, who need another inside man on the defensive side of the ball and have been said to be targeting Jerry. Jerry is a high effort guy, but he doesn't have the talent you might except from pick No. 19. 

20. Lions: Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss

Alright, this one actually isn't a reach. The only reason it might qualify as such is because it gives us back-to-back Ole Miss players selected in the draft, which is just plain crazy. Ole Miss isn't exactly known for producing NFL talent, but Oher definitely has what it takes to be a dominant left tackle in the league. The Lions will be lucky if he falls to them, as he's been mentioned as high as the top 10. If the Lions end up getting their quarterback (that one is a reach) and a left tackle for years to come, this could be a very good draft for the 0-16 club. 

We hope you enjoyed all eight of this weekend's picks, and we hope you'll stay with us throughout the week as we put the finishing touches on our 2009 NFL Mock Draft. 

2009 NFL Mock Draft: Picks 1-3

As promised, we'll be conducting our first ever full first round mock draft, beginning today. Given how much things change over the course of the pre-NFL Draft weeks, we don't advise you take any of these picks and bet on them. 

When the NFL Draft rolls around, we'll offer some insight on who might go where and what odds are worth taking, but for now, this is merely for the fun and entertainment of it. 

So, without further ado, here are the first two picks of our 2009 NFL Mock Draft. 

1. Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia

While there are questions as to whether or not Stafford is worthy of the No. 1 overall pick, the strong-armed kid can do some good in Detroit. Taking one of the premiere tackles might make more sense here, but we think the Lions will go for a new face of the franchise in Stafford. If anyone needs a new face of the franchise, it's the 0-16 Lions. 

2. St. Louis Rams: Jason Smith, T, Baylor

The main beneficiary of Detroit's decision to go with Stafford is the Rams, who are picking second for the second year in-a-row. With a need at left tackle, Jason Smith can step right in and fill the void. There are a number of other solid tackle prospects out there, but Jason Smith will likely be the first off the board.

3. Kansas City Chiefs: Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest

In our opinion, Curry is the best player in the draft and the absolute safest pick. Curry, along with any of the top three offensive tackles, should be around ten years from now still dominating at his position.

We'll have picks 4-6 for you most likely tomorrow, so make sure to check back and continue to do so as we unveil the rest of our first ever full NFL Mock Draft. 

Free NFL Picks End Regular Season At 59%

And with that, ladies and gentlemen, another NFL regular season is in the books. Here at Stock Lemon, it means another successful season, though we certainly would have liked to play more games--and would have if we knew our Free NFL Picks would finish at just 59%.

The main reason for the sucess of our Free NFL Picks is that we are so picky with them. Rather than play nearly all of the games each week as we're routinely tempted to do, we stick to our computer system in hopes that we'll finish in the high 60's or low 70's for winning percentage.

Obviously, that didn't happen, and while 59% is respectable, it's definitely lower than we hoped. The good news for us: there is plenty of playoff football ahead, which means plenty more opportunities to improve on that mark.

On the bright side, we ended the regular season with a 3-1 day, giving us our 59% with a record of 26-18-2.

Thanks to the 0-16 Lions being just a little bit less awful than expected, Detroit covered a +10 spread in a 31-21 loss to the Packers. Elsewhere, the Giants nearly won outright and easily covered a +7 spread on the road against the Vikings with a 20-19 loss, while the Dolphins went from 1-15 to 11-5, covering a +3 spread with a 24-17 win over the Jets in the process.

Thus concludes our regular season NFL fun for the year.

We will have a play for every playoff game, regardless of whether or not it is a system play or not, so check us out for all of your playoff betting needs.

Free NFL Picks Close Out Regular Season

The last batch of Free NFL Picks for the 2008 regular season is in, and the picks, unlike the last few weeks, there are actually multiple picks.

As you'll notice, it's a very interesting week for the system as all four picks are underdogs. With the regular season ending and various teams resting starters for much of the finale, we tried to estimate the time each team will play their starters, and then calculated our data as we normally do each week.

As a result, the picks are a little different from our normal system, but are Free NFL Picks nonetheless.

It's also interesting that we have all of the NFC North covered this week, but since there are so many intriguing matchups, it isn't surprising.

Lions +11 over Packers

The Lions have everything to play for in this one while the Packers are just limping out of the year. Granted, nobody wants to lose to an 0-15 team, but with an 11-point cushion, the Packers don't even have to lose for this to be a winner. We're tempted by that +500 moneyline as well.

Bears +3 over Texans

Apparently we like the Bears to make the playoffs, when you factor in this pick with the next one. Although the Bears could still lose in a close one and miss the playoffs for us to win both bets, if your bookie is still taking bets on the NFC North Champ, it looks like our Free NFL Picks are telling you to take the Bears.

Giants +7 over Vikings

The Giants don't have much to play, or anything for that matter, and we still like this pick. That should tell you all you need to know about the Vikings.

Dolphins +3 over Jets

Cold weather game + Brett Favre = Dolphins +3. It's still hard to say with a straight face that Chad Pennington has a stronger arm than Brett Favre, but at this point, it's the truth.

Good luck!

Free NFL Picks Ready For an Encore

Fresh off of a 4-0 week, our Free NFL Picks are ready for more. The picks are 17-10-2 heading into Week 10, and we hope to improve on that 63% mark with another successful week. Here are the picks:

Texans +1 over the Ravens

The Texans have underachieved this year, while the Ravens have overachieved. At home, we think that's about to change for both squads. Much is made about the Ravens D, but Mario Williams and some others on an underrated Texans defense will make life difficult for rookie quarterback Joe Flacco. The system sees this as the strongest play this weekend.

Panthers -9 1/2 over the Raiders

The computer likes this one, and while it looks like a sucker bet, it's impossible to be talked out of making.

Jacksonville Jaguars/Detroit Lions UNDER 43

Daunte Culpepper and the Lions will be out of sync, even more than usual. The Jags should get back on track in Detroit, though this could be a surprisingly close and--let's hope--low scoring affair.

Hopefully these three Free NFL Picks can have the same success as the picks had last week. If not, it looks like we might once again have a pick for the Monday Night Football game, so stay tuned and good luck.

Perfect 3-0 Day For Free NFL Picks

It's safe to say that our Free NFL Picks are back on track. After struggling the last two weeks, our picks went 3-0 today.

Kurt Warner and the Cardinals made sure we didn't have to fret a -3 spread against his hold team, beating the Rams 34-13.

The Vikings took care of business against the Texans with a 28-21 win to cover the -4 1/2 spread, while the Lions managed not to get blown out, covering a +13 spread in a 27-23 loss to the Bears.

After the perfect day, our picks are back up to 62% with a record of 16-10-2. It is looking very likely that we will have a play for tomorrow night's game, so stay tuned.

Three Strong Free NFL Picks

Our Free NFL Picks have stalled lately after a fast start, hitting just 57% now on the year at 13-10-2. We hope to rebound this week with three solid picks.

Vikings -4 1/2 over the Texans

Lions +13 over the Bears

Cardinals -3 over the Rams

We like Adrian Peterson and the Vikings a lot this week against the Texans, and yes, you read that right, we are betting on the Lions. The system sees a lot of value there as well as with the Cardinals against the Rams.

It also looks like we will have a play for Monday as well, which we will reveal tomorrow. Good luck and let's get back on track.

Advice From Brett Favre

You might have heard a little rumor earlier today that Jets QB Brett Favre contacted the Lions to dish out the goods on his former team prior to Detroit's Week 2 meeting with the Packers. What we've learned, though, is that Favre didn't stop with the Lions. In fact, he gave out plenty of advice to team's before Week 7. Here's what we've learned:

To the New Orleans Saints: I have the consecutive start streak record for quarterbacks, did you know that? Reggie Bush and Jeremy Shockey will be fine. Knee injuries and sports hernias are nothing to worry about--I'm sure they won't aggravate them. I broke me thumb once, and I played. Did I mention I have the record for most starts?

To the Dallas Cowboys: Brad Johnson's won as many Super Bowls as I have, so he must be good. Trust me, you won't need Tony Romo this week.

To the Indianapolis Colts: Look, Peyton Manning, double coverages are your friends. I've thrown so many balls in practice against this secondary, and, well, they've all been picked. But don't let that stop you from throwing to guys that are clearly covered. These safeties are a joke. By the way, if you want to miss a start at any time soon, that'd be great, because that consecutive start streak is mine!

To Stock Lemon: Take the Cowboys, Saints, and Colts this week.

So, yeah, we blame Brett Favre.

Patriots and Packers Win For 2-0 Day

Yes, folks, that is a Patriots quarterback celebrating after a nice victory and cover for Stock Lemon. No, folks, that is not Tom Brady.

In for the injured Brady, Matt Cassel did enough to lead the Patriots to a 19-10 victory over the Jets, which covers the +1 1/2 and gives us a Game of the Week win.

The Pats D made Brett Favre look... well... old, and the AFC champs continue to dominate the regular season.

Speaking of Favre, his old team in Green Bay also won us some money, with a 48-25 stomping of the Lions. It got close for a while, but Aaron Rodgers and the Pack pulled away to make the -3 spread look foolish.

After a 2-0 day in the NFL, our Free NFL Picks are now 5-2 to start the young season, which is an impressive 71%. Make sure to check back every weekend for more free winners in the NFL.

Take the Patriots and Packers

As you might have guessed from our earlier post this week tracking the line movement in the game, the Patriots/Jets showdown this Sunday is our Game of the Week. And yes, we still like the Patriots.

Patriots +1 1/2 over the Jets

The Patriots might not have Tom Brady, but Matt Cassel can and will just chuck it up to Randy Moss all day long. The Patriots shouldn't miss a beat.

Also, we have just one other play for Sunday, and it involves another quarterback getting a lack of respect. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, despite a strong showing on Monday night, are just three-point favorites in Detroit this week. This line has great value, so get on it!

Packers -3 over Lions

Again, our Free NFL Picks this week are the Patriots and the Packers. These same picks started off with a 60% Week 1, so we're expecting a couple of more wins today.

Good luck!

Obscure Athlete Drinking Photos

By now, you've probably all seen plenty of pictures on the internet of professional athletes drinking and partying as if cameras don't exist and nobody will see them enjoying their free time. Many of these images end up on popular sites like Deadspin, but aren't they getting a little old? Forget about, among others, the Matt Leinart house parties or the soft-core porn that is Vince Young partying semi-nude with a bunch of dudes.

What's that? The star quarterback is out partying!?! Booooring. Ever since Joe Namath, NFL quarterbacks have been taking beer bongs and stripping in front of other men (maybe that's just Vince), it's what star quarterbacks are supposed to do.

Fortunately, Stock Lemon has what true fans are really dying to see--pictures of backup position players out partying! So without further ado, we present to you four of the most obscure players in the NFL... getting drunk! For starters, here's New York Giants backup defensive end Dave Tollefson, keeping it real, yo.

Then there's Green Bay Packers punter Jon Ryan, whose had a little too much pale with his ale.

And here's journeyman kicker Dave Rayner, currently with the Miami Dolphins, blending in nicely with some friends.

Lastly, how about Detroit Lions third-string running back Brian Calhoun, getting in the shotgun formation and then, naturally, scoring.

We know you love your "athletes getting drunk" photos out there on the internet, but that's about all the obscurity we can handle. It's always nice to know that even NFL players are really just regular guys who do regular things like consume alcoholic beverages. And gamble.