2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) Lines: Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

It's official: It's the Green Bay Packers and the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) in two weeks. Over the course of that time, we'll roll out our highly anticipated and fun Super Bowl prop bet coverage, which we'll get to in a bit.

But first things first, let's get to the just released early spread and odds for Super Bowl XLV between the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers, just as the oddsmakers predicted headed into championship week.

Green Bay Packers -2

Pittsburgh Steelers +2

OVER/UNDER 45

Our early thoughts are that we're a little surprised Green Bay is still favored after a shaky performance in Chicago (even favored by -2 1/2 some places). The OVER/UNDER seems to be set pretty well once again, and our early gut feeling is that it will be over with the explosive Packers offense in a dome.

As for our undefeated Free NFL Playoff Picks? Not so undefeated anymore. Both the Bears and Jets failed to cover as we predicted. Keep in mind, as we have mentioned, that these picks would not necessarily be Free NFL Picks if not for the big-game stature. What fun is betting if you don't bet the big games? But they count as Free NFL Picks nonetheless, moving us down to 4-2 in the postseason and 60% (still pretty good) overall for the 2010 NFL campaign.

And our 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) prop bet coverage begins... now. Or shortly. When we next post.

AFC Championship Free NFL Pick: New York Jets vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Our Free NFC Championship Pick is in, and now it's time to see who will represent the AFC in the 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45).

As we mentioned earlier today, we've been riding the dogs to a 4-0 Free NFL Playoff Pick record--all of whom have won straight their matchups straight up. That includes these plucky Jets, 9 1/2 point dogs last week in New England and all.

It's our longterm philosophy to not bet on money lines and rather stick straight to spreads, but the way we are picking winners this postseason, we may need to rethink that bogus philosophy, because it would have led to an even more profitable 2011 NFL season that has seen our Free NFL Picks hit 62%.

And, in case you forgot, these picks are completely free, outperforming those of many paid "expert" sites. Free, unless you count shamelessly requesting donations via the Paypal button the left.

Anyway, as we said earlier, we expect another dog day afternoon on Sunday on the way to the Super Bowl in North Texas. Our Free AFC Championship Pick:

New York Jets +3 1/2 over the Pittsburgh Steelers

This one, we feel, is a little tricker than in the NFC. In the NFC we have an underrated home dog against an injury riddled public darling. In the AFC, we have about exactly what you'd expect. A quality football team laying just over a field goal at home against a team they are slightly better than--even though Pittsburgh fell to New York earlier this year.

But, in what could be a defensive smashmouth type of game, we like the points. And speaking of mouths, we like Rex Ryan and the Jets. Like the Packers, they are a hot 6-seed taking down quality opponents on their way to the conference championship game. But they are up against a team that is properly valued, having won two Super Bowls in the last six years, and therefore have been lost in the shuffle a bit.

And so it is. We're riding these playoff dogs like it's the Iditarod, all the way to 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45). See you there, Jets (or Steelers by a field goal).

Projected 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) Spreads

We're down to the Green Bay Packers, Chicago Bears, New York Jets and Pittsburgh Steelers as we prepare for our coverage of 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45). But why wait until the matchup is actually determined to take a look at possible spreads for the Super Bowl. Bob's Blitz has the scoop, and here's what those lines look like:

Packers -1 over Steelers
Packers -1.5 over Jets
Jets -2.5 over Bears
Steelers -3 over Bears

So this confirms it: Vegas thinks the Packers will win it all regardless and the Bears will lose it regardless. Of course, these lines are easily swayed by the most recent performance of a team, so if there is a blowout in one of the AFC or NFC Championship games, expect that to be reflected in the actual 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) spread.

Updated 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) Odds: Will it be Packers vs. Steelers?

It's the Tuesday before 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) in North Texas, and before we can get to our Super Bowl prop betting analysis, we have to wait for the actual matchup to be determined.

With that in mind, let's take a look at the updated odds to win Super Bowl XLV (45).

Green Bay Packers +175

Pittsburgh Steelers +200

New York Jets +350

Chicago Bears +450

The Packers are clearly the favorite to come out of the NFC--going into Chicago to beat the division rival Bears. The Pack have the hot hand, and it's often wise to ride it in the NFL playoffs. Yet, for a road team to be such overwhelming favorites has to raise the eyebrows a bit. Beware the road dogs, as they say, particularly in the NFC Championship game. Aaron Rodgers recent performances have the public loving the Packers a little too much.

The Steelers are the team favored to matchup with the Packers, and according to the odds, lose to Green Bay in the Super Bowl. The difference between the Steelers and Jets (+150) is a little more reasonable than the (+275) difference between the Packers and Bears, again keeping in mind that this game is played at Soldier Field.

So those are the individual team odds, but what about the actual matchups? What are the odds on the predicted Steelers/Packers matchup based on the team odds to win the game?

Your odds to meet in Super Bowl XLV (45) are as follows:

Packers vs. Steelers +110

Packers vs. Jets +250

Bears vs. Steelers +250

Bears vs. Jets +500

From our perspective, as we've been riding dogs throughout the NFL postseason, we like seeing these +500 odds on the two underdogs, the Bears and Jets. Aside from oddsmakers overwhelmingly thinking the Packers and Steelers will meet for the Lombardi trophy, is that the Packers/Jets (total of +525 to win Super Bowl individually) can be had at the same odds as the Steelers/Bears (+650). But again, those +500 odds are something to think about for a Bear/Jets matchup, despite the bookies' opinion (which is a reflection of the way the public thinks, or at least the way bookies expect them to think) that the Packers and Steelers will meet.

The way these NFL Playoffs have been going, always expect the unexpected--including for the Super Bowl XLV (45) matchup.

An Early Look at the NFL Championship Game Odds

The early lines are out for the final two NFL games before the Super Bowl and boy does the new Super Bowl logo look good. The NFC Championship and AFC Championships ain't too shabby either. Enough with the Super Bowl logos, let's take a look at what next weekend's slate of games has to offer and which team the bookmakers think has the best odds to advance to the 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) in North Texas:

Packers -3

Bears +3

OVER/UNDER 43 1/2

The first thing that comes to mind is that over/under. The Bears have put up 35-plus in five of the last six weeks (the exception being a three-point performance in Week 17 against the Packers), and the Packers are well-known for their explosive offense. In two matchups this season, though, the teams combined for 50 points, just 6 1/2 more than this one game calls them to score. It's winter. It's Chicago. It's cold. And on top of that, it's a division rivalry between two excellent defenses. We have a hard time thinking that number won't drop a little.

As for the spread, the Packers open as favorites for the first time this postseason after winning as dogs in Atlanta and Philly. Will this have an impact on the nobody believes in us theme? The public is riding high on the Packers, and rightfully so, but it's clear that nobody believes in the Bears, the No. 2 seed in the NFC and the division champs, playing at home where they beat the division runner-up Pack earlier this season. Bears bettors have to be salivating over this one.

Jets +3

Steelers -3

OVER/UNDER 38

These lines--both the over/under and the spread--seem much more in line with what we typically see when a No. 2 seed hosts a No. 6. The Steelers and Jets both defeated division rivals to get to this point, so both are coming off huge emotional victories with no real advantage either way. The over/under seems about right, and our initial lean might even be the over as both, while known for their defense, have very productive offenses with plenty of weapons.

We're amped up for what should prove to be an exciting few weeks, as we bet the NFC Championship, AFC Championship, Pro Bowl and Super Bowl, with plenty of prop bets in between.



The BetFirms odds feed is constantly updated with the latest lines and their handicappers will help you come out on top.

Four Dogs, Four Straight Up Wins For Free NFL Playoff Picks

... Now let's go eat a god damn snack!

If you're not following our Free NFL Playoff Picks, what are you waiting for? After a successful season over 60%, we are now 4-0 in the playoffs, picking four dogs and seeing them win straight up in each contest so far. While we foolishly haven't been betting money lines (part of a long-term philosophy that we may need to re-think), we hope you have been doing so or at least hoping on these picks and taking the points.

The Jets are the latest to win straight up despite being huge dogs of 9 1/2 points. As we noted earlier this week, this line was largely public driven based on the Week 13 game between these two clubs. Sure, the Pats kicked the crap out of the Jets, but not to the point where they should be nearly 10 point favorites in an intra-division playoff game against a highly confident and talented squad.

While our Free NFL Picks stay hot (7-1 since Week 17), they are far from finished. We'll have plenty of coverage as the NFL's Final Four heads toward the 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45). Will it be the Jets-Bears? Jets-Packers? Steelers-Bears? Steelers-Packers? We'll find out soon enough--and then the real fun begins: Super bowl prop betting season.

Rodgers and Packers Improve Free NFL Playoff Picks to 3-0

We interrupt our regularly scheduled posts featuring scantily-clad young ladies to show you something that, to those wagering on the Packers Saturday, is even sexier.

Aaron Rodgers is the reason we felt confident in our Free NFL Pick of the Packers +2 1/2 over the Falcons, and his play has helped those very picks to a 3-0 playoff start.

The Packers and Steelers have made it to the Final Four in the NFL and will await their opponents on Sunday. We'll pick up the coverage of those match-ups as the Super Bowl nears, and we may even have some 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) proposition wagers prior to the Super Bowl matchup even being determined.

And, of course, once our Super Bowl teams are set in stone, the prop betting fun really begins when we take a look at some of the wackier prop bets of Super Bowl 45, including the coin toss, Gatorade dump and National Anthem.

As a reminder, our Free NFL Pick for Sunday's slate of games:

Jets +9 1/2 over the Patriots

Good luck and stay with us throughout the NFL Playoffs as we close in on our expansive Super Bowl gambling coverage!

Free NFL Playoff Picks Continue as Super Bowl Nears (61%)

At this point, we are already just counting down the days to 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) in Dallas, waiting to unleash the fury of our prop betting expertise. But for now, we will "settle" for high-caliber playoff football in what some call the best weekend in the NFL.

As it stand right now, we have one pick for Saturday and one pick for Sunday. They are:

Packers +1 1/2 over Falcons

Jets +9 1/2 over Patriots

We have been riding the dogs this postseason (believe us, Seahawks +10 and Ravens +3 1/2 are also very tempting), but we think these two plays represent the best value on the board. The Packers seem to be too obvious of a pick, and too many people are counting out the 13-3 Falcons who rarely lose at home. Still, the Packers have the hot hand and in the playoffs, you ride it.

In the Jets/Patriots showdown, much has been made about the pre-game smack talk. We think much more needs to be made about the fact that the Pats defense isn't all that good. Sure, Mark Sanchez is horrible, but we just think the Patriots are more vulnerable than most think--even at home. To get 9 1/2 points against a division team in the playoffs is absurd and something that is basically the result of one single game that the Patriots and Jets played.

Lots of value with the dogs once again, as is often the case in the playoffs, and we're riding with these two as our 2-0 Free NFL Playoff Picks look to remain winless.



Check the BetFirms odds feed for live lines and sign up for their expert NFL picks to win more of your bets.

Late Free NFL Playoff Pick

Hurry! We have a late Free NFL Playoff pick for tonight's game as we await a Seahawks collapse...

Jets +3 over the Colts

Good luck and enjoy some Jets eye candy that, maybe for the first time in the history of this site, is not Jenn Sterger.

More Jenn Sterger and More Free NFL Picks (63% YTD)

We promise we don't just pick the Jets in games so that we have an excuse to post pictures of Brett Favre's girlfriend Jenn Sterger. They simply fit in with our system, getting high marks in the "potential to post picture of hot girls" category. We are a slave to the system... as we should be. We have hit 63% of our Free NFL Picks this year, which is right about where we want to be (obviously we always want to be higher, but 63% is a respectable mark).

And so we will hope to keep that up with four picks on Sunday.

Jets -6 over the Dolphins

Vikings +3 over the Giants

Packers -7 over the Lions

Redskins +3 over the Buccaneers

Good luck!

Uganda Gets Jets-Vikings Super Bowl

We're talking, of course, about the championship merchandise that is printed in big games. The NFL needs to be ready for any outcome in the championship game, so they print t-shirts and hats for both teams so that they can immediately be worn by the winning players following the game.

The losing merchandise? It gets sent to a relief organization, World Vision, where it is distributed to countries such as Uganda, Niger and Sierra Leone.

Per a great New York Times article from three years ago, the same will happen with the loser of the Super Bowl between the Colts and Saints:

The Super Bowl will end about 10 p.m. Sunday, and by 10:01 every player on the winning team — along with coaches, executives, family members and ball boys — could be outfitted in colorful T-shirts and caps proclaiming them champions.

The other set of championship gear — the 288 T-shirts and caps made for the team that did not win — will be hidden behind a locked door at (Sun Life) Stadium. By order of the National Football League, those items are never to appear on television or on eBay. They are never even to be seen on American soil.

They will be shipped Monday morning to a warehouse in Sewickley, Pa., near Pittsburgh, where they will become property of World Vision, a relief organization that will package the clothing in wooden boxes and send it to a developing nation, usually in Africa.

The MLB actually destroys the merchandise, while the NBA sends losing Finals gear to a charity overseas. The NFL goes the World Vision route, which causes for confusion in Niger--should any of the citizens know anything about American Football.

2010 Super Bowl 44 Proposition Bets Coming Soon!

It's Conference Championship weekend, which means one thing-- Super Bowl prop season is almost here. Those of you who followed our highly publicized Super Bowl prop coverage last year are in for a treat this year, as we're pulling out all the stops to make this our best Super Bowl prop coverage yet!

Before we can get to all the Super Bowl XLIV fun and excitement, however, we need to figure out the teams who will be playing in the Super Bowl. Here are our Free NFL Playoff Picks for the AFC and NFC Championship games.

Jets +8 over the Colts

Vikings +4 over the Saints

It's been a whacky ride so far this postseason, and we expect that to continue. We're not saying that the Super Bowl will be between the Jets and Vikings... just that they will cover.

Good luck and we will see you back here for extensive prop betting on Super Bowl 44!

First of Many Free NFL Playoff Picks

Our first pick is in... and not a minute too soon. We realize the game starts in less than half hour, and the rest of the picks will be in much sooner, but for now, here is our first pick.

Bengals -3 over the Jets

The public/part-time bettors love that whoopin the Jets gave to the Bengals, and so do we, because it means more action on the Jets. The Bengals are clearly the better team, and Mark Sanchez has not developed into a playoff-ready quarterback.

Good luck!

Free NFL Picks Look For Winning Week

After two weeks, our Free NFL Picks are a disappointing 5-6, but we expect better results moving forward when more current stats become available (rather than using a combination of last year's stats).

In Week One, we had a crazy nine-pick card, only to follow that with just two picks in Week Two. In Week Three, we have more of a standard Stock Lemon card in terms of quantity and hopefully quality.

Titans +3 over the Jets

Bears -3 over the Seahawks

Colts +2 1/2 over the Cardinals

Bills/Saints UNDER 51 1/2

Three road teams and an under this week. Not in love with the fact that all of our picks are on the road, but we'll play what the system gives us, especially early on.

Good luck!

Week One Free NFL Picks: Part One

We promised a huge Free NFL Pick lineup this week, so huge that we had to split it up into two parts. Well, no we didn't, but we will anyway.

Panthers +3 over the Eagles

Panthers/Eagles UNDER 43 1/2

Texans -4 1/2 over the Jets

Broncos +4 1/2 over the Bengals

Part Two is forthcoming. Stay tuned.

Betting on Brett Favre's Vikings

Boy, John David Booty got old.

Wait a minute, that's Brett Favre!

Bettors are in a frenzy today as the longtime Packer and one time Jet wore purple for the first time in his career, going against everything that anybody has ever known about football.

So, how can bettors profit off of this move? The obvious answer is that they can't. Those who wanted to bet on the Vikings to win the NFC North or the Super Bowl should have done so while they were debating between Sage Rosenfels and Tarvaris Jackson--knowing the Favre would eventually decide to retire from retirement. (Those same people could also make some coin by re-selling season tickets).

The inevitability of this move made it easy for bettors to get a good price on the Vikings, but for those who didn't make like a gunslinger and pound the Favre-less Vikings, you're out of luck as far as bargain bin prices.

There is good news, though. You can still bet a different team to win the NFC North, and at better odds! We're of the thinking that the Bears or Packers will win this division either way, and in our case, we're glad we held off until Favre signed to make our pick.

Here's a look at the current odds to win the North:

Vikings 31/20

Bears 17/10

Packers 9/4

Lions 15/1

Not bad, but if you're going to play this one, hold off a bit. Wait for the public to hit the Vikings hard in the next few days and you'll get an even better price.

The Super Bowl odds for the NFC North teams look like this:

Vikings 12/1

Bears 15/1

Packers 24/1

Lions 100/1

We wouldn't recommend any of these, as we don't think the NFC North will represent the conference in the Super Bowl, but still. These numbers are just beginning to tempt us. As we said, the coming days should give us even more to think about as the odds on the Vikings to win it all continue to move based on public betting.

To sum it up, if you're looking at betting on Favre's Vikings, take a pass. Unless, of course, you're banking on him retiring again.

Brett Favre's First Practice With Vikings

Are we there yet?

As you can see, in addition to picking sports games and stocks, we're also in the business of predicting the future.

This is Brett Favre on the first day of Vikings Training Camp, in uniform and ready to begin his 2009 revenge tour against the Packers.

Favre appeared on Joe Buck's new HBO show tonight, Joe Buck Live, to publicly confirm his interest in playing for the Vikings this upcoming season after flaming out with the Jets last year.

Okay, okay. So that's a picture of John David Booty. But it won't be long before that's Favre occupying his purple No. 4 jersey (or red for practices). If you can find a prop bet asking whether or not he'll return to the NFL this season, consider it the easiest money you'll ever make.

2009 NFL Mock Draft: Picks 17-20

We continue to work hard during the weekend, as for the second day in a row, we're revealing the next four picks in our 2009 NFL Mock Draft, rather than just three. So go ahead, check out the other installments of our mock draft on the upper right-hand side of our site, and then check out these next four picks. 

In this edition, it's all about reaching, baby. 

17. Jets: Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State

The reaching begins with the Jets selection of Freeman. We don't think Freeman will be a bad quarterback in the league, but this pick is the definition of drafting for need. The Jets don't have a legitimate quarterback, and Freeman is available to fill that void. The Jets could make a move out of this pick to try and get one of the top two quarterbacks, but we think they'll end up sticking around and taking the player that falls to them (and would likely fall to them if they picked 15-20 spots from now). 

18. Broncos: Brian Cushing, LB, USC

Let the reaching continue! Though some might say that us calling this pick a reach is reaching on our part. A lot of people really like Cushing for his leadership and consistent play, but we're not sure his skills will translate at the NFL level. The Broncos are banking on those skills translating as they look to re-tool their defense for the 3-4. Cushing is a relatively safe pick and probably will do alright in the NFL, but we don't see a whole lot of potential or upside (terms that draft experts love to use). Depending on how much the Broncos like him, they could look at Cushing with their earlier pick in the first round--which would definitely be a reach. Either way, except defense out of the Broncos with both the 12th and 18th picks in the draft. 

19. Buccanneers: Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss

Jerry is a reach here in the draft because his position isn't all that great in this particular draft. There are about five legitimate defensive tackles available this year, and team's will be reaching for most of them. Jerry fits into the 4-3 front in Tampa, who need another inside man on the defensive side of the ball and have been said to be targeting Jerry. Jerry is a high effort guy, but he doesn't have the talent you might except from pick No. 19. 

20. Lions: Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss

Alright, this one actually isn't a reach. The only reason it might qualify as such is because it gives us back-to-back Ole Miss players selected in the draft, which is just plain crazy. Ole Miss isn't exactly known for producing NFL talent, but Oher definitely has what it takes to be a dominant left tackle in the league. The Lions will be lucky if he falls to them, as he's been mentioned as high as the top 10. If the Lions end up getting their quarterback (that one is a reach) and a left tackle for years to come, this could be a very good draft for the 0-16 club. 

We hope you enjoyed all eight of this weekend's picks, and we hope you'll stay with us throughout the week as we put the finishing touches on our 2009 NFL Mock Draft. 

Free NFL Picks End Regular Season At 59%

And with that, ladies and gentlemen, another NFL regular season is in the books. Here at Stock Lemon, it means another successful season, though we certainly would have liked to play more games--and would have if we knew our Free NFL Picks would finish at just 59%.

The main reason for the sucess of our Free NFL Picks is that we are so picky with them. Rather than play nearly all of the games each week as we're routinely tempted to do, we stick to our computer system in hopes that we'll finish in the high 60's or low 70's for winning percentage.

Obviously, that didn't happen, and while 59% is respectable, it's definitely lower than we hoped. The good news for us: there is plenty of playoff football ahead, which means plenty more opportunities to improve on that mark.

On the bright side, we ended the regular season with a 3-1 day, giving us our 59% with a record of 26-18-2.

Thanks to the 0-16 Lions being just a little bit less awful than expected, Detroit covered a +10 spread in a 31-21 loss to the Packers. Elsewhere, the Giants nearly won outright and easily covered a +7 spread on the road against the Vikings with a 20-19 loss, while the Dolphins went from 1-15 to 11-5, covering a +3 spread with a 24-17 win over the Jets in the process.

Thus concludes our regular season NFL fun for the year.

We will have a play for every playoff game, regardless of whether or not it is a system play or not, so check us out for all of your playoff betting needs.

Free NFL Picks Close Out Regular Season

The last batch of Free NFL Picks for the 2008 regular season is in, and the picks, unlike the last few weeks, there are actually multiple picks.

As you'll notice, it's a very interesting week for the system as all four picks are underdogs. With the regular season ending and various teams resting starters for much of the finale, we tried to estimate the time each team will play their starters, and then calculated our data as we normally do each week.

As a result, the picks are a little different from our normal system, but are Free NFL Picks nonetheless.

It's also interesting that we have all of the NFC North covered this week, but since there are so many intriguing matchups, it isn't surprising.

Lions +11 over Packers

The Lions have everything to play for in this one while the Packers are just limping out of the year. Granted, nobody wants to lose to an 0-15 team, but with an 11-point cushion, the Packers don't even have to lose for this to be a winner. We're tempted by that +500 moneyline as well.

Bears +3 over Texans

Apparently we like the Bears to make the playoffs, when you factor in this pick with the next one. Although the Bears could still lose in a close one and miss the playoffs for us to win both bets, if your bookie is still taking bets on the NFC North Champ, it looks like our Free NFL Picks are telling you to take the Bears.

Giants +7 over Vikings

The Giants don't have much to play, or anything for that matter, and we still like this pick. That should tell you all you need to know about the Vikings.

Dolphins +3 over Jets

Cold weather game + Brett Favre = Dolphins +3. It's still hard to say with a straight face that Chad Pennington has a stronger arm than Brett Favre, but at this point, it's the truth.

Good luck!