2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) Lines: Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

It's official: It's the Green Bay Packers and the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) in two weeks. Over the course of that time, we'll roll out our highly anticipated and fun Super Bowl prop bet coverage, which we'll get to in a bit.

But first things first, let's get to the just released early spread and odds for Super Bowl XLV between the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers, just as the oddsmakers predicted headed into championship week.

Green Bay Packers -2

Pittsburgh Steelers +2

OVER/UNDER 45

Our early thoughts are that we're a little surprised Green Bay is still favored after a shaky performance in Chicago (even favored by -2 1/2 some places). The OVER/UNDER seems to be set pretty well once again, and our early gut feeling is that it will be over with the explosive Packers offense in a dome.

As for our undefeated Free NFL Playoff Picks? Not so undefeated anymore. Both the Bears and Jets failed to cover as we predicted. Keep in mind, as we have mentioned, that these picks would not necessarily be Free NFL Picks if not for the big-game stature. What fun is betting if you don't bet the big games? But they count as Free NFL Picks nonetheless, moving us down to 4-2 in the postseason and 60% (still pretty good) overall for the 2010 NFL campaign.

And our 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) prop bet coverage begins... now. Or shortly. When we next post.

NFC Championship Free NFL Pick: Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears

The NFC and AFC Championship games--our last roadblock before we begin our coverage of the 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45), take place this weekend, and we're using our Saturday to deliver our Free NFL Picks on both games.

Our Free NFL Picks that, oh by the way, are hitting 62% this season, including a perfect 4-0 mark in the playoffs. So technically, the team we pick to lose has only a 38% chance of covering the spread. Or is it even less than that?

All four of our Free NFL Playoff Picks have been underdogs. All four have gone on to not only cover, but also win their matchup straight up. And we're riding the dogs all the way to the Super Bowl with our Free NFC Championship Pick:

Chicago Bears +3 1/2 over the Green Bay Packers

The Packers are good. We've gathered as much from their impressive run in the playoffs. They are, as dubbed both by themselves and the national media, the hottest team in all of football. We have a hard time disagreeing. But this is a division game--on the road. For the Bears, the division winner and 2-seed in the NFC, mind you--to be dogs by more than a field goal is almost unheard of.

The public loves the Packers, and with good reason. Like we said, they have a ton of talent. The more talented team, though, doesn't always win, particularly on the road against a divisional rival. At the very least, the more talented team doesn't always cover. And you should always, ALWAYS beware of the home dog. We'll take the Bears and the points.

So, who will the Bears face in Super Bowl XLV? Don't worry, our Free AFC Championship Pick will be up shortly. Stay tuned as we spend our Saturday doing what we've done at a 62% clip this season--picking NFL winners.

Projected 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) Spreads

We're down to the Green Bay Packers, Chicago Bears, New York Jets and Pittsburgh Steelers as we prepare for our coverage of 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45). But why wait until the matchup is actually determined to take a look at possible spreads for the Super Bowl. Bob's Blitz has the scoop, and here's what those lines look like:

Packers -1 over Steelers
Packers -1.5 over Jets
Jets -2.5 over Bears
Steelers -3 over Bears

So this confirms it: Vegas thinks the Packers will win it all regardless and the Bears will lose it regardless. Of course, these lines are easily swayed by the most recent performance of a team, so if there is a blowout in one of the AFC or NFC Championship games, expect that to be reflected in the actual 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) spread.

Updated 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) Odds: Will it be Packers vs. Steelers?

It's the Tuesday before 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) in North Texas, and before we can get to our Super Bowl prop betting analysis, we have to wait for the actual matchup to be determined.

With that in mind, let's take a look at the updated odds to win Super Bowl XLV (45).

Green Bay Packers +175

Pittsburgh Steelers +200

New York Jets +350

Chicago Bears +450

The Packers are clearly the favorite to come out of the NFC--going into Chicago to beat the division rival Bears. The Pack have the hot hand, and it's often wise to ride it in the NFL playoffs. Yet, for a road team to be such overwhelming favorites has to raise the eyebrows a bit. Beware the road dogs, as they say, particularly in the NFC Championship game. Aaron Rodgers recent performances have the public loving the Packers a little too much.

The Steelers are the team favored to matchup with the Packers, and according to the odds, lose to Green Bay in the Super Bowl. The difference between the Steelers and Jets (+150) is a little more reasonable than the (+275) difference between the Packers and Bears, again keeping in mind that this game is played at Soldier Field.

So those are the individual team odds, but what about the actual matchups? What are the odds on the predicted Steelers/Packers matchup based on the team odds to win the game?

Your odds to meet in Super Bowl XLV (45) are as follows:

Packers vs. Steelers +110

Packers vs. Jets +250

Bears vs. Steelers +250

Bears vs. Jets +500

From our perspective, as we've been riding dogs throughout the NFL postseason, we like seeing these +500 odds on the two underdogs, the Bears and Jets. Aside from oddsmakers overwhelmingly thinking the Packers and Steelers will meet for the Lombardi trophy, is that the Packers/Jets (total of +525 to win Super Bowl individually) can be had at the same odds as the Steelers/Bears (+650). But again, those +500 odds are something to think about for a Bear/Jets matchup, despite the bookies' opinion (which is a reflection of the way the public thinks, or at least the way bookies expect them to think) that the Packers and Steelers will meet.

The way these NFL Playoffs have been going, always expect the unexpected--including for the Super Bowl XLV (45) matchup.

An Early Look at the NFL Championship Game Odds

The early lines are out for the final two NFL games before the Super Bowl and boy does the new Super Bowl logo look good. The NFC Championship and AFC Championships ain't too shabby either. Enough with the Super Bowl logos, let's take a look at what next weekend's slate of games has to offer and which team the bookmakers think has the best odds to advance to the 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) in North Texas:

Packers -3

Bears +3

OVER/UNDER 43 1/2

The first thing that comes to mind is that over/under. The Bears have put up 35-plus in five of the last six weeks (the exception being a three-point performance in Week 17 against the Packers), and the Packers are well-known for their explosive offense. In two matchups this season, though, the teams combined for 50 points, just 6 1/2 more than this one game calls them to score. It's winter. It's Chicago. It's cold. And on top of that, it's a division rivalry between two excellent defenses. We have a hard time thinking that number won't drop a little.

As for the spread, the Packers open as favorites for the first time this postseason after winning as dogs in Atlanta and Philly. Will this have an impact on the nobody believes in us theme? The public is riding high on the Packers, and rightfully so, but it's clear that nobody believes in the Bears, the No. 2 seed in the NFC and the division champs, playing at home where they beat the division runner-up Pack earlier this season. Bears bettors have to be salivating over this one.

Jets +3

Steelers -3

OVER/UNDER 38

These lines--both the over/under and the spread--seem much more in line with what we typically see when a No. 2 seed hosts a No. 6. The Steelers and Jets both defeated division rivals to get to this point, so both are coming off huge emotional victories with no real advantage either way. The over/under seems about right, and our initial lean might even be the over as both, while known for their defense, have very productive offenses with plenty of weapons.

We're amped up for what should prove to be an exciting few weeks, as we bet the NFC Championship, AFC Championship, Pro Bowl and Super Bowl, with plenty of prop bets in between.



The BetFirms odds feed is constantly updated with the latest lines and their handicappers will help you come out on top.

Four Dogs, Four Straight Up Wins For Free NFL Playoff Picks

... Now let's go eat a god damn snack!

If you're not following our Free NFL Playoff Picks, what are you waiting for? After a successful season over 60%, we are now 4-0 in the playoffs, picking four dogs and seeing them win straight up in each contest so far. While we foolishly haven't been betting money lines (part of a long-term philosophy that we may need to re-think), we hope you have been doing so or at least hoping on these picks and taking the points.

The Jets are the latest to win straight up despite being huge dogs of 9 1/2 points. As we noted earlier this week, this line was largely public driven based on the Week 13 game between these two clubs. Sure, the Pats kicked the crap out of the Jets, but not to the point where they should be nearly 10 point favorites in an intra-division playoff game against a highly confident and talented squad.

While our Free NFL Picks stay hot (7-1 since Week 17), they are far from finished. We'll have plenty of coverage as the NFL's Final Four heads toward the 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45). Will it be the Jets-Bears? Jets-Packers? Steelers-Bears? Steelers-Packers? We'll find out soon enough--and then the real fun begins: Super bowl prop betting season.

Thursday Night Free NFL Pick (61% YTD)

Our Free NFL Picks, which have had just one losing week to date, are back in action this weekend--or rather, this week.

It's our first Thursday Free NFL Pick!

Dolphins -1 over the Bears

Interesting game tonight between a third string quarterback and Tyler Thigpen. HEEEYOOO! We got jokes, and hopefully we'll get a little more cash after this one. The Dolphins are a team that is still somehow better than people give them credit for, while the Bears are the team that everyone knows is terrible but will benefit from their schedule enough to post a winning record this season. This should not be one of those wins.

We'll have more Free NFL Picks coming before the weekend, as well as a Redemption Saturday in college football.

3-1 Week For Free NFL Picks As Well!

In addition to our Free NCAA Football Picks going 3-1 this weekend, our Free NFL Picks did the same.

The Bears covered a -3 spread with 25-19 win over Seahawks; the Bills and Saints went under 51 1/2 points in a 27-7 Saints victory; and the Colts stomped the Cardinals and a ridiculous +2 1/2 spread in a 31-10 Sunday night win.

We'll get to our weekly breakdown and record update momentarily.

Free NFL Picks Look For Winning Week

After two weeks, our Free NFL Picks are a disappointing 5-6, but we expect better results moving forward when more current stats become available (rather than using a combination of last year's stats).

In Week One, we had a crazy nine-pick card, only to follow that with just two picks in Week Two. In Week Three, we have more of a standard Stock Lemon card in terms of quantity and hopefully quality.

Titans +3 over the Jets

Bears -3 over the Seahawks

Colts +2 1/2 over the Cardinals

Bills/Saints UNDER 51 1/2

Three road teams and an under this week. Not in love with the fact that all of our picks are on the road, but we'll play what the system gives us, especially early on.

Good luck!

Free NFL Picks Pick Up Steam

We had mixed results in week one of the NFL season, eventually finishing a record nine-game card with a losing 4-5 record.

The volume of picks will likely be reduced as we become even more selective with a usually picky Free NFL Picks system, so don't expect to have such a crazy Sunday every week.

After an 0-1 start on Thursay, our Free NFL Picks wound up 4-4 on Sunday for an unspectacular 4-5 week.

The Packers 21-15 win over the Bears on Sunday night salvaged our day with a -3 1/2 spread. Prior to the nightcap, the Vikings crushed the -4 1/2 spread and the Browns with a 34-20 win; the Cowboys covered a -6 spread in a 34-21 victory over the Buccaneeers; and the Broncos, who already had a +4 1/2 cover secured, went on to a miraculous 12-7 triumph over the Bengals.

In all, we had a good end to a shaky weekend, but we look forward to a winning week two.

Week One Free NFL Picks: Part Two

Maybe it's because it's week one and we're playing some games that we wouldn't if we weren't so jacked up about the start of another NFL season, or maybe these games are just as easy as they appear. Either way, we're just following our Free NFL Picks system that went 58% last year and are hoping for better results this year.

In addition to the four picks in Part One and one on Thursday, we have four more picks--nine total! In all, we're playing eight of the 16 games this week, a Stock Lemon record. We'll find out if that's a good or bad thing on Sunday.

Vikings -4 1/2 over the Browns

Colts -7 over the Jaguars

Cowboys -6 over the Buccaneers

Packers -3 1/2 over the Bears

Good luck and enjoy the first Sunday of the NFL season!

Betting on Brett Favre's Vikings

Boy, John David Booty got old.

Wait a minute, that's Brett Favre!

Bettors are in a frenzy today as the longtime Packer and one time Jet wore purple for the first time in his career, going against everything that anybody has ever known about football.

So, how can bettors profit off of this move? The obvious answer is that they can't. Those who wanted to bet on the Vikings to win the NFC North or the Super Bowl should have done so while they were debating between Sage Rosenfels and Tarvaris Jackson--knowing the Favre would eventually decide to retire from retirement. (Those same people could also make some coin by re-selling season tickets).

The inevitability of this move made it easy for bettors to get a good price on the Vikings, but for those who didn't make like a gunslinger and pound the Favre-less Vikings, you're out of luck as far as bargain bin prices.

There is good news, though. You can still bet a different team to win the NFC North, and at better odds! We're of the thinking that the Bears or Packers will win this division either way, and in our case, we're glad we held off until Favre signed to make our pick.

Here's a look at the current odds to win the North:

Vikings 31/20

Bears 17/10

Packers 9/4

Lions 15/1

Not bad, but if you're going to play this one, hold off a bit. Wait for the public to hit the Vikings hard in the next few days and you'll get an even better price.

The Super Bowl odds for the NFC North teams look like this:

Vikings 12/1

Bears 15/1

Packers 24/1

Lions 100/1

We wouldn't recommend any of these, as we don't think the NFC North will represent the conference in the Super Bowl, but still. These numbers are just beginning to tempt us. As we said, the coming days should give us even more to think about as the odds on the Vikings to win it all continue to move based on public betting.

To sum it up, if you're looking at betting on Favre's Vikings, take a pass. Unless, of course, you're banking on him retiring again.

Free NFL Picks Close Out Regular Season

The last batch of Free NFL Picks for the 2008 regular season is in, and the picks, unlike the last few weeks, there are actually multiple picks.

As you'll notice, it's a very interesting week for the system as all four picks are underdogs. With the regular season ending and various teams resting starters for much of the finale, we tried to estimate the time each team will play their starters, and then calculated our data as we normally do each week.

As a result, the picks are a little different from our normal system, but are Free NFL Picks nonetheless.

It's also interesting that we have all of the NFC North covered this week, but since there are so many intriguing matchups, it isn't surprising.

Lions +11 over Packers

The Lions have everything to play for in this one while the Packers are just limping out of the year. Granted, nobody wants to lose to an 0-15 team, but with an 11-point cushion, the Packers don't even have to lose for this to be a winner. We're tempted by that +500 moneyline as well.

Bears +3 over Texans

Apparently we like the Bears to make the playoffs, when you factor in this pick with the next one. Although the Bears could still lose in a close one and miss the playoffs for us to win both bets, if your bookie is still taking bets on the NFC North Champ, it looks like our Free NFL Picks are telling you to take the Bears.

Giants +7 over Vikings

The Giants don't have much to play, or anything for that matter, and we still like this pick. That should tell you all you need to know about the Vikings.

Dolphins +3 over Jets

Cold weather game + Brett Favre = Dolphins +3. It's still hard to say with a straight face that Chad Pennington has a stronger arm than Brett Favre, but at this point, it's the truth.

Good luck!

Perfect 3-0 Day For Free NFL Picks

It's safe to say that our Free NFL Picks are back on track. After struggling the last two weeks, our picks went 3-0 today.

Kurt Warner and the Cardinals made sure we didn't have to fret a -3 spread against his hold team, beating the Rams 34-13.

The Vikings took care of business against the Texans with a 28-21 win to cover the -4 1/2 spread, while the Lions managed not to get blown out, covering a +13 spread in a 27-23 loss to the Bears.

After the perfect day, our picks are back up to 62% with a record of 16-10-2. It is looking very likely that we will have a play for tomorrow night's game, so stay tuned.

Three Strong Free NFL Picks

Our Free NFL Picks have stalled lately after a fast start, hitting just 57% now on the year at 13-10-2. We hope to rebound this week with three solid picks.

Vikings -4 1/2 over the Texans

Lions +13 over the Bears

Cardinals -3 over the Rams

We like Adrian Peterson and the Vikings a lot this week against the Texans, and yes, you read that right, we are betting on the Lions. The system sees a lot of value there as well as with the Cardinals against the Rams.

It also looks like we will have a play for Monday as well, which we will reveal tomorrow. Good luck and let's get back on track.

Balogh Gets Chopped From Bears

Back in April, we mentioned the free agent signing of former Montana tackle Cody Balogh by the Chicago Bears. The choice was interesting to us given the fact that Balogh is best remembered for throwing a nasty chop block at an opposing defensive lineman in college, and we felt compelled to let the fine readers here at Stock Lemon to protect their knees if they ever make their way into the Chicago area.

It appears now that Balogh will also be remembered for being released by the Chicago Bears.

The Bears will cut the "Balogh the belt blocker" along with many others in order to reach the 53-man roster limit. Chicago felt its young runners would benefit more from standard, legal blocking techniques to start the season, making Balogh expendable.

While it's sad to see a Stock Lemon favorite like Balogh get chopped, what goes around comes around we suppose.

Chicago Bears Upgrade Chop Blocking Ability

Most NFL teams look at run blocking and pass blocking when evaluating offensive linemen during the NFL Draft. The Chicago Bears, however, look at chop blocking.

At least, that's one theory.

The Bears signed Montana tackle Cody Balogh, a player best known for a chop block he threw on an opposing defensive lineman, as an undrafted free agent. In all fairness, Balogh is reportedly a good kid who didn't mean any harm on the block (as if diving at another man's knees won't cause any harm). Nevertheless, it might be time for the rest of the NFC North to start wearing knee guards.