Thursday Night Free NFL Pick (61% YTD)

Our Free NFL Picks, which have had just one losing week to date, are back in action this weekend--or rather, this week.

It's our first Thursday Free NFL Pick!

Dolphins -1 over the Bears

Interesting game tonight between a third string quarterback and Tyler Thigpen. HEEEYOOO! We got jokes, and hopefully we'll get a little more cash after this one. The Dolphins are a team that is still somehow better than people give them credit for, while the Bears are the team that everyone knows is terrible but will benefit from their schedule enough to post a winning record this season. This should not be one of those wins.

We'll have more Free NFL Picks coming before the weekend, as well as a Redemption Saturday in college football.

Week 1 Free NFL Picks

We locked in some Free NFL Picks earlier this week, and now we've got just two more to add:

New York Giants -7 over the Carolina Panthers

Washington Redskins +3 1/2 over the Dallas Cowboys

Add those to our previous picks:

Miami Dolphins -3 over the Buffalo Bills

Green Bay Packers -3 over the Philadelphia Eagles

San Francisco 49ers -3 over the Seattle Seahawks

As with our Free NCAA Football Picks, totals will be mixed in in the coming weeks, but as of now only the sides have value.

Lastly, we've been waiting a long time to say this: Enjoy the opening weekend of the NFL!

2009 NFL Mock Draft: Picks 24-26

The NFL Draft is growing closer and closer, but for now, you'll have to settle for our 2009 NFL Mock Draft. 

We're in the mid-twenties now in our third-to-last set of three picks, and these three are all about the pass catchers. 

24. Falcons: Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State

The Falcons have a few other needs, namely on the defensive line, but tight end is a glaring need as well and with the best tight end in the draft still available, Pettigrew should be the pick here. He's got great hands and, better yet, he can block. He's truly a complete tight end and an athletic freak, so the Falcons shouldn't need too much time to make this pick. 

25. Dolphins: Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers

Several teams late in the first round are looking at Britt, but we think the Dolphins will pull the trigger before the other teams get a chance. Of course, there are a few other similarly talented WRs that the Dolphins could go for, but we think the Phins will Phall (lame) for Britt and his tremendous size and skill set. 

26. Ravens: Darius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland

The Ravens are one of those teams that could be looking at Britt, but they'll take Heyward-Bey at this point, and might even feel like he's more talented than the previous pick. Heyward-Bey isn't the best receiver in the draft, but some wild-card projections have him going as high as seventh overall, before any of his peers. He's a fast riser and, well, a fast runner--probably the quickest pass catcher in the draft. 

That's all for today, folks. But be sure to check out the final installments of our 2009 NFL Mock Draft tomorrow and Thursday, with a recap and some other draft analysis on Friday. Of course, make sure you also check out the first 23 picks, located conveniently on the upper right hand side of this site. 

That's More Like It

If you only check our picks on Saturday, you probably had a bad week.

If you only check our picks on Sunday, you probably had a good week.

If you checked our picks on both Saturday and Sunday, you probably fall somewhere in between.

Lastly, if don't check our picks at all, what are you thinking? And how did you get here?

Our Free NFL Picks went 0-2 on Saturday but rebounded nicely with a 2-0 day on Sunday. The Eagles beat the Vikings, 26-14, while the Ravens took care of the Dolphins, 27-9. Both teams covered -3 spread on the road in the process.

So, all in all, our Wildcard picks ended up at an unimpressive 2-2. Be sure to check back next weekend for more NFL playoff action, and of course, check us out in between weekends as well.

More NFL Playoff Picks

Well, that didn't go as planned. The games yesterday could have gone either way, and obviously they didn't end up going our way.

The good news is that there are two more Wild Card games to bet on, and although we didn't mean for this to happen, we're once again on the road favorites.

Ravens -3 over the Dolphins

Defenses should tell the story tomorrow. Ray Lewis and the tough Ravens D have shut down Chad Pennington in Miami before, and although the teams were both much different in Week 7, the results should be the same.

Eagles -3 over the Vikings

The same can be said with the red hot Eagles storming into Minnesota. Brian Dawkins and Philly's D have been playing great as of late, and we don't expect that to change in the playoffs.

Good luck!

Free NFL Picks End Regular Season At 59%

And with that, ladies and gentlemen, another NFL regular season is in the books. Here at Stock Lemon, it means another successful season, though we certainly would have liked to play more games--and would have if we knew our Free NFL Picks would finish at just 59%.

The main reason for the sucess of our Free NFL Picks is that we are so picky with them. Rather than play nearly all of the games each week as we're routinely tempted to do, we stick to our computer system in hopes that we'll finish in the high 60's or low 70's for winning percentage.

Obviously, that didn't happen, and while 59% is respectable, it's definitely lower than we hoped. The good news for us: there is plenty of playoff football ahead, which means plenty more opportunities to improve on that mark.

On the bright side, we ended the regular season with a 3-1 day, giving us our 59% with a record of 26-18-2.

Thanks to the 0-16 Lions being just a little bit less awful than expected, Detroit covered a +10 spread in a 31-21 loss to the Packers. Elsewhere, the Giants nearly won outright and easily covered a +7 spread on the road against the Vikings with a 20-19 loss, while the Dolphins went from 1-15 to 11-5, covering a +3 spread with a 24-17 win over the Jets in the process.

Thus concludes our regular season NFL fun for the year.

We will have a play for every playoff game, regardless of whether or not it is a system play or not, so check us out for all of your playoff betting needs.

Free NFL Picks Close Out Regular Season

The last batch of Free NFL Picks for the 2008 regular season is in, and the picks, unlike the last few weeks, there are actually multiple picks.

As you'll notice, it's a very interesting week for the system as all four picks are underdogs. With the regular season ending and various teams resting starters for much of the finale, we tried to estimate the time each team will play their starters, and then calculated our data as we normally do each week.

As a result, the picks are a little different from our normal system, but are Free NFL Picks nonetheless.

It's also interesting that we have all of the NFC North covered this week, but since there are so many intriguing matchups, it isn't surprising.

Lions +11 over Packers

The Lions have everything to play for in this one while the Packers are just limping out of the year. Granted, nobody wants to lose to an 0-15 team, but with an 11-point cushion, the Packers don't even have to lose for this to be a winner. We're tempted by that +500 moneyline as well.

Bears +3 over Texans

Apparently we like the Bears to make the playoffs, when you factor in this pick with the next one. Although the Bears could still lose in a close one and miss the playoffs for us to win both bets, if your bookie is still taking bets on the NFC North Champ, it looks like our Free NFL Picks are telling you to take the Bears.

Giants +7 over Vikings

The Giants don't have much to play, or anything for that matter, and we still like this pick. That should tell you all you need to know about the Vikings.

Dolphins +3 over Jets

Cold weather game + Brett Favre = Dolphins +3. It's still hard to say with a straight face that Chad Pennington has a stronger arm than Brett Favre, but at this point, it's the truth.

Good luck!

Lemmy Squeezes More Juice For Free NFL Picks

Things have been pretty average around here lately. It seems like every post we're writing about going .500 for the day, be it 1-1-, 2-2-1, 1-1, 1-1, 1-1, or 1-1.

Well, guess what? Our Free NFL Picks went 1-1 today.

The Patriots covered the -1 spread with a 48-28 pounding over the Dolphins, but the Chargers choked in the final minute--again--and lost to the Colts 23-20, losing against the -2 1/2 spread in the process.

So, once again, we had a .500 day, and Lemmy lost some more juice, or lemonade as we say here at Stock Lemon.

The bad news is that the 1-1 day drags our Free NFL Picks record under the 60% mark that looks so good on resumes. We are now 22-15-2 on the year, which is 59.4%.

The good news is that we will have a play coming for the Packers/Saints Monday Nighter tomorrow, so stay tuned.

Just Two Free NFL Picks This Week

Our Free NFL Picks only like two games this week, both in the AFC.

Chargers -2 1/2 over the Colts

Patriots -1 over Dolphins

Our system is hitting 60% thus far with a record of 21-14-2, but we're optimistic that these two picks will put us above the 60% benchmark.

Good luck!

Free NFL Picks Get Back to 60%

After a 3-1 day, our Free NFL Picks are back up to 60%, in case you can't read the title of this post. Clearly, the picks have been solid but struggly with consistency, as our week-by-week results show. Here's how we got back up to 21-14-2 on the year:

Dolphins 17, Raiders 15 (+10 1/2)

Titans 24, Jaguars 14 (+3)

Buccaneers 19 (-4), Vikings 13

Bengals 13 (+9), Eagles 13

The Dolphins have been playing well, but for them to be double-digit favorites proved to be a stretch, even against the Raiders. The Titans made us look like idiots, but the Bucs had a field goal day against the Vikings. Meanwhile, we're happy to be a part of the first tie since 2002, especially since we were guaranteed a cover once the game headed to overtime. And here's the aforementioned weekly breakdown:

Week 1: 3-2

Week 2: 2-1

Week 3: 2-1

Week 4: 2-1

Week 5: 0-0-1

Week 6: 3-0
Week 7: 0-3
Week 8: 1-2-1
Week 9: 4-0

Week 10: 1-3

Week 11: 3-1
Total: 21-14-2... 60%

It doesn't look like we have a play for tomorrow, but be sure to check back tomorrow for confirmation. And then come back all week, just to make sure we didn't have a pick. And then be sure to check back all year. Just, keep coming back, you know, to be safe. We'll try to get this thing more consistent for you.

Week 11 Free NFL Picks

We have four Free NFL Picks for Sunday, three of them dogs. Here's the card:

Raiders +10 1/2 over the Dolphins

Jaguars +3 over the Titans

Buccaneers -4 over the Vikings

Bengals +9 over the Eagles

Our Picks have been pretty solid so far this year and although we usually don't end up with a whole lot of underdogs, we have a decent amount of faith in this week's picks.

Good luck!

Keep an Eye on the Patriots Line

As Tom Brady limped off the field Sunday, we couldn't wait to see the line for the Patriots next game agains the Jets this week. We figured, with the star quarterback lost for the year in a game that saw his team barely sneak by the Chiefs, the Patriots won't be getting any respect this week against Brett Favre and the J-E-T-S.

We were right.

The Patriots line is +1 1/2 on Bodog, and that will be one to watch for this weekend as we dish out our Free NFL Picks (which were 60% in week one). Keep a close eye on this line, as the public might give the Patriots even more points!

The bottom line is this: the Patriots went 18-1 and earned a Super Bowl appearance last year as a team. Although Brady was a huge part of that, the Patriots still have a great team, and should still be able to beat the Jets.

Brady or no Brady, Favre or no Favre, there's no way we pass up on a chance to take the most dominant team in the league at +1 1/2 over the Jets, who looked shakey at best last week against the Dolphins.

All that the new Pats QB Matt Cassel has to do is chuck it up to Randy Moss, which he proved capable of in Kansas City, and the Patriots stellar offensive line, underrated rushing game, and solid defense should take care of the rest.

When the Patriots steamroll the Jets this weekend, remember to thank us. And Bernard Pollard.

Bills and an AFC East Under Are Money

Marshawn Lynch and the Buffalo Bills steamrolled the Seahawks on Sunday, opening the season with a 34-10 pounding.

We took the Bills as a Free NFL Pick with a -1 spread, and didn't have to sweat the result.

Also in the AFC East, the much anticipated Jets debut of Brett Favre went well for the future hall-of-famer, but even better for us. Though the legendary quarterback finished with two touchdowns and earned a win over the Dolphins, the final score of 20-14 fell below the over/under set at 36.5.

These two victories are just a sign of things to come this year in the NFL here at Stock Lemon. Stay with us throughout the year for more Free NFL Picks, at the low, low price of free.

Three More Free NFL Picks

We already gave you our Game of the Week, now it's time for the rest of the solid Free NFL Picks this weekend.

New York Jets/Miami Dolphins UNDER 36.5

Buffalo Bills -1 over the Seattle Seahawks

Houstona Texans +7 over the Pittsburgh Steelers

In Brett Favre's first game with the Jets, he won't even be the biggest story of the game. The weather, not Favre, will have the biggest impact on this game, thanks to hurricane rains and winds that result in a low-scoring contest between to teams coming off of dismal 2007 campaigns.

The Bills are being overlooked at home against a soft Seattle team--don't be surprised to see them win big.

The Texans are a team on the rise and the Steelers are a team on the decline, the smart money is one Houston in Week 1.

Good luck and enjoy the free winners all weekend long!

Awkward...

With the NFL regular season right around the corner, we've been keeping our eye on some of the intriguing headlines around the league.

As we mentioned earlier this week about the NBA, its important to keep tabs on the off-season moves if you really want to be able to pick winners.

The biggest stories of the off-season went something like this:

1. Brett Favre retires from Packers

2. Brett Favre un-retires

3. Brett Favre gets traded to the Jets

The Jets are easily a much better team with Favre at the helm as opposed to Chad Pennington (as are the Dolphins with Pennington), but the biggest surprise might be how little Favre's retirement/tantrum will hur the Packers.

Not only is Aaron Rodgers filling Favre's shoes, he's also wearing his number! Of course, this was just for a drill in practice, but clearly the Packers have moved on and shouldn't expect much of a drop off, if any, this season.

Make sure to continue keeping up to date on the roster moves and injuries in the NFL to ensure that you're fully prepared for the upcoming season. Or just blindly tail us for winner after winner after winner...



Take a look at the BetFirms NFL picks if you want a better chance of beating the weekly NFL odds this season.

Obscure Athlete Drinking Photos

By now, you've probably all seen plenty of pictures on the internet of professional athletes drinking and partying as if cameras don't exist and nobody will see them enjoying their free time. Many of these images end up on popular sites like Deadspin, but aren't they getting a little old? Forget about, among others, the Matt Leinart house parties or the soft-core porn that is Vince Young partying semi-nude with a bunch of dudes.

What's that? The star quarterback is out partying!?! Booooring. Ever since Joe Namath, NFL quarterbacks have been taking beer bongs and stripping in front of other men (maybe that's just Vince), it's what star quarterbacks are supposed to do.

Fortunately, Stock Lemon has what true fans are really dying to see--pictures of backup position players out partying! So without further ado, we present to you four of the most obscure players in the NFL... getting drunk! For starters, here's New York Giants backup defensive end Dave Tollefson, keeping it real, yo.

Then there's Green Bay Packers punter Jon Ryan, whose had a little too much pale with his ale.

And here's journeyman kicker Dave Rayner, currently with the Miami Dolphins, blending in nicely with some friends.

Lastly, how about Detroit Lions third-string running back Brian Calhoun, getting in the shotgun formation and then, naturally, scoring.

We know you love your "athletes getting drunk" photos out there on the internet, but that's about all the obscurity we can handle. It's always nice to know that even NFL players are really just regular guys who do regular things like consume alcoholic beverages. And gamble.

Perfect Top Five in the NFL Draft

If you checked in with us prior to the NFL Draft, you might have noticed our mock draft for the first five picks. If you checked in with us after the NFL Draft, you might have noticed we correctly picked all five of them. Hopefully it was in time to make some of you a little bit of money on NFL Draft props. Of course, Jake Long to the Dolphins was already in the books, but four out of four isn't bad, either.

If not, you aren't completely out of luck. We'll be back tomorrow with a Free NBA Playoff Pick we've been waiting all week for.

Unfortunately, Brian Brohm was not the second quarterback selected, as the Baltimore Ravens reached for Joe Flacco and ruined what should have been a sure-thing. We get where the Ravens are coming from, but we still like Brian Brohm's potential... to hold a clipboard as a career backup to Aaron Rodgers on the Packers.

All in all, it was a fun draft, and we hope you came out with as much money in your pocket as Jake Long (above with Roger Goodell) did.

NFL Mock Draft Top 5

The NFL Draft is about an hour away, so if you can get on any of these picks at reasonable odds, it's time to pull the trigger.

1. Miami Dolphins- Jake Long, G

2. St. Louis Rams- Chris Long, DE

3. Atlanta Falcons- Matt Ryan, QB

4. Oakland Raiders- Darren McFadden, RB

5. Kansas City Chiefs- Glenn Dorsey, DT

Fun With NFL Draft Prop Bets

The Miami Dolphins made Michigan tackle Jake Long the first overall pick in the NFL Draft, reminding us that the draft is fast approaching. We'll wager on plenty of NFL Draft prop bets this weekend, and of course, we'll try to get as many "cocrect" as possible.

That said, we've found our first juicy bet on Bodog.

The prop is: Who will be the second QB drafted?

We think it's almost a lock that Louisville's Brian Brohm is the second quarterback selected, after Boston College's Matt Ryan--and we don't use the word "lock" often. At 5/6 odds, this is still a pretty good value, but we'd imagine the odds will only get worse as the draft approaches.

Brohm was once considered a Top 10 pick earlier in the year, and there is no reason for the other options (Delaware's Joe Flacco, Michigan's Chad Henne, and the talented Other) to be picked higher than Brohm.

We'll have more draft pick props in the coming days, so be sure to make us your home for NFL Draft prop bets.

Even More Super Bowl Prop Bets

We've already picked out a few Super Bowl props that we like, but for those of you who don't fancy betting on hypothetical handshakes and national anthem times, we've gone ahead and found a few more props that you might be interested in betting on.

Just like the props we've already bet on, few of these have anything to do with the Patriots and Giants actually playing football. What would be the fun in that? We have nothing riding on any of these (yet), but here are a few of the other options out there:

• Which QB will Troy Aikman mention first after opening kickoff, Eli Manning or Tom Brady?
• How many times will Joe Buck mention Peyton Manning's name during the broadcast? Over/Under 5 1/2 times
• If the Patriots win, will Bob Kraft mention the 72 Dolphins during the Trophy Presentation, yes or no?
• How many times will Archie Manning be shown on the TV Broadcast? Over/Under 4 1/2 times
• Will the entire Fox pre-game team pick the Patriots to win the Super Bowl, yes or no?

These props and more can all be found on Bodog. If for some reason you want to bet on the actual game, they have a few props for that as well.