Free 2011 NFL Pro Bowl Pick

We may be the best source for 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) prop betting analysis (self-proclaimed), but as far as we're concerned, there still two NFL games remaining this season. We're talking, of course, about the 2011 NFL Pro Bowl!

While many are quick to dismiss the Pro Bowl as a terrible All-Star game, we love the game, if only because we know how desperate we're going to be for any sort of football during the months following the Super Bowl (as evidenced by our occasional AFL and UFL coverage).

This year, with the Pro Bowl back in Hawaii, we're excited to make our Free Pro Bowl Picks--though as we warned earlier, we don't technically count these as Free NFL Picks given that they are not part of our system. Though it is worth noting, our Free NFL Pro Bowl Picks were 2-o last year. Just sayin'.

AFC (PICK) over NFC

UNDER 64

Last year, we went with the NFC and the OVER, and won them both as the all-time Pro Bowl record evened between the AFC and NFC to 20-20. This year, we think the AFC regains their lead. Injuries and replacements decimated both sides, but particularly the NFC's defense. Aside from that, Bill Belichick is 2-0 all-time as the coach of the Pro Bowl, and we generally think the better coach usually wins this game. Hoodie has the edge over Mike Smith. Aside from that, we're supposed to bet against Mr. Pro Bowl, Peyton Manning? Not gonna happen.

As for the under, this over/under is set a little higher than normal after the shootout in 2010. Over usually draws most of the action in the Pro Bowl (and Super Bowl), but we think under is the play this year.

We'll throw in some Pro Bowl prop bets before the game tomorrow, and our Super Bowl prop bet coverage is nowhere near complete, so stay with us here at Stock Lemon as we continue to make the final games of the 2010 NFL season as fun as possible.

Super Bowl XLIV (44) Prop Bet: Historical Colts

We're hours away from the Super Bowl, and all of our Super Bowl coverage can be found on the right or by clicking here.

But we aren't done yet.

Although the following bets will require you to lay some chalk, we like three of these Colts historical bets (as compared to their last Super Bowl appearance in Super Bowl XLI) to exceed their last Super Bowl (Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark) and one not to (Joseph Addai).

Super Bowl XLIV – HISTORICAL MATCHUP - Total Passing Yards,

which will be higher?

Player must start game for wagers to have action.

Peyton Manning Super Bowl XLIV	-350
Peyton Manning Super Bowl XLI (247 Passing Yards)	+275

Super Bowl XLIV – HISTORICAL MATCHUP - Total Rushing Yards,

which will be higher?

Player must play in game for wagers to have action.

Joseph Addai Super Bowl XLIV	+165
Joseph Addai Super Bowl XLI (77 Rushing Yards)	-205

Super Bowl XLIV – HISTORICAL MATCHUP - Total Receiving Yards,

which will be higher?

Player must play in game for wagers to have action.

Reggie Wayne Super Bowl XLIV	-210
Reggie Wayne Super Bowl XLI (61 Receiving Yards)	+170

Super Bowl XLIV – HISTORICAL MATCHUP - Total Receiving Yards,

which will be higher?

Player must play in game for wagers to have action.

Dallas Clark Super Bowl XLIV	-550
Dallas Clark Super Bowl XLI (36 Receiving Yards)	+375

Our feeling in regards to taking bets with a lot of juice is that if you find multiple bets that look good, it will be worth your while in the end. So, at least as far as individual numbers are concerned, this Super Bowl against the Saints will be better for the Colts bettors.

Super Bowl XLIV (44) Prop Bet: Archie Manning

Super Bowl XLIV - How Many Times will CBS show Archie Manning

on TV during the Game?

Wager is on the number of times Archie Manning will appear on TV during the Game (from kick off until final whistle). Live pictures only, Any Taped Pictures

or Past Video does not count towards wager. Max $50 no exceptions.

Over 4 1/2	4½ (-210)o (+170)u
Under

Leading up to the Super Bowl, we'll be taking a look at various proposition bets for the 2010 Super Bowl, Super Bowl 44, Super Bowl XLIV, The Big Game, or whatever it's called these days.

Not since manipulating the draft in Eli Manning's favor has Archie Manning had such an impact on a sporting event. Tonight, the prop bet "How many times will Archie Manning be shown on TV" is one of the hottest bets out there.

The over/under is set at 4 1/2, which seems high by first glance. However, considering that Archie Manning played for the Saints in addition to being Peyton Manning's father, he is the biggest non-game story of the Super Bowl, as he can be shown in reference to either team. If the Saints win, we think they'll show some shots of Archie. If the Colts win, we think they'll show some shots of Archie. So either way, he will get plenty of face time.

That's why we are going with over 4 1/2 shots of Archie Manning during the game.

Stock Lemon's Media Day Recap

As we mentioned earlier this week, we attended our very first media day at the Super Bowl in Miami this year.

As we expected, it was a zoo.

Dwight Freeny's ankle, Hurricane Katrina and the rebuilding of New Orleans, and all of the expected storylines were touched upon. While the spectacle seemed to have somewhat less goofballs this year (maybe moving it indoors scared some off), there were still plenty of people who somehow had less business being at media day than we did.

But our main thought from our first media day experience is this: Those Super Bowl patches look huge on the uniforms. But more importantly: The Colts are going to win the Super Bowl. There is an air of confidence around that team with a focus and energy you can just feel. Nothing against the Saints, but they are in "happy to be here" mode, and while the Cardinals almost won it all last year under those same circumstances, we just don't expect the Saints to outduel the mastermind that is Peyton Manning.

Some more Super Bowl XLIV (44) coverage is ahead as we are just days away from the big game, so stay tuned for more fun prop bets and predictions! If you don't get them from us, be sure to check out Doc's Sports Super Bowl Prop Bets and Super Bowl Odds.

By the way, if you look close enough in that photo above you can almost kind of make out one of our arms. We are famous!

It's Playoff Time!

Amidst all these meaningless college football games, it's refreshing that we'll finally be able to enjoy a playoff system tomorrow.

The NFL playoffs are underway, and as promised, we've got a couple of Free NFL Picks for you.

Colts -1 over the Chargers

We're riding Peyton Manning the rest of the way, just like the Colts have been doing for the past nine weeks.

Falcons PICK over the Cardinals

It's nice that the Cardinals get to play an extra game this year. Nice for the Falcons and our wallets, that is. The Matt Ryan/Michael Turner combo will just be too much for the Cards to handle.

Good luck and enjoy the wonders of a simple playoff format.

Surprise Monday Night Football Pick

In a game featuring Peyton Manning and the high-scoring Colts offense, one would think an over/under of 41 applies just to Indianapolis.

That's not the case tonight, as the over/under for both teams, combined, is just 41 points. What's even more surprising is that our system shows the under.

Indianapolis Colts/Tennessee Titans UNDER 41

The suffocating Titans D, led by 600-pound Albert Hayneswoth on the line, is a big reason for this under, which is low for a reason. Our Free NFL Picks system also shows a small lean on the Titans -4, but we're passing on that--for now--because it isn't a strong enough play. Stay tuned.

UPDATE: We have determined that the Titans -4 over the Colts does indeed have sufficient value to qualify as a Free NFL Pick. Get on it if you still can, although we realize kickoff is in less than 15 minutes. We apologize for the late update.

Advice From Brett Favre

You might have heard a little rumor earlier today that Jets QB Brett Favre contacted the Lions to dish out the goods on his former team prior to Detroit's Week 2 meeting with the Packers. What we've learned, though, is that Favre didn't stop with the Lions. In fact, he gave out plenty of advice to team's before Week 7. Here's what we've learned:

To the New Orleans Saints: I have the consecutive start streak record for quarterbacks, did you know that? Reggie Bush and Jeremy Shockey will be fine. Knee injuries and sports hernias are nothing to worry about--I'm sure they won't aggravate them. I broke me thumb once, and I played. Did I mention I have the record for most starts?

To the Dallas Cowboys: Brad Johnson's won as many Super Bowls as I have, so he must be good. Trust me, you won't need Tony Romo this week.

To the Indianapolis Colts: Look, Peyton Manning, double coverages are your friends. I've thrown so many balls in practice against this secondary, and, well, they've all been picked. But don't let that stop you from throwing to guys that are clearly covered. These safeties are a joke. By the way, if you want to miss a start at any time soon, that'd be great, because that consecutive start streak is mine!

To Stock Lemon: Take the Cowboys, Saints, and Colts this week.

So, yeah, we blame Brett Favre.

Free Pro Bowl Picks

We were hoping to provide you with plenty of prop bets to keep you busy on Pro Bowl Sunday, but Bodog must be all NFL-proped out, because they have nothing to offer.

As for the actual game, we like the Peyton Manning and the AFC -3 today over the NFC. The AFC has been superior to the NFC for the last few years, and the spread is usually at least a touchdown in favor of the AFC come Pro Bowl time.

We also like the teams to score over 62 points, since defense is usually non-existent in this game. Good luck!

Even More Super Bowl Prop Bets

We've already picked out a few Super Bowl props that we like, but for those of you who don't fancy betting on hypothetical handshakes and national anthem times, we've gone ahead and found a few more props that you might be interested in betting on.

Just like the props we've already bet on, few of these have anything to do with the Patriots and Giants actually playing football. What would be the fun in that? We have nothing riding on any of these (yet), but here are a few of the other options out there:

• Which QB will Troy Aikman mention first after opening kickoff, Eli Manning or Tom Brady?
• How many times will Joe Buck mention Peyton Manning's name during the broadcast? Over/Under 5 1/2 times
• If the Patriots win, will Bob Kraft mention the 72 Dolphins during the Trophy Presentation, yes or no?
• How many times will Archie Manning be shown on the TV Broadcast? Over/Under 4 1/2 times
• Will the entire Fox pre-game team pick the Patriots to win the Super Bowl, yes or no?

These props and more can all be found on Bodog. If for some reason you want to bet on the actual game, they have a few props for that as well.