Can We Blame the Snow?

Well, that was a crazy week.

Crazy because the roof of the Metrodome completely caved in. Crazy because our fourth and final Free NFL Picks was delayed to Monday night in one of the more bizarre scenarios ever played out in the NFL. Crazy because, for the second time this season, we suffered a losing week.

So, like every week, let us start our post off with excuses. Who could have predicted the wild circumstances to the Giants/Vikings game when we made our pick on Saturday? Who could have predicted (even though many did) that Brett Favre actually wouldn't play, even with an extra day of rest? The answer, unfortunately, is not us.

Our Free NFL Picks went 1-3, plummeting them down to 60% on the season. We wanted to stop the presses on our final pick, the Vikings to win Monday night, but had already made it and felt it unfair to retract it from our blog. We could have hedged it, but where is the fun in that.

So we stuck with it, and predictably, we lost. So we'll blame the snow, chalk this up as a fluke week (when we've only had one other losing week, we have the privilege of doing so) and move forward to try and stay about that 60% gambling Mendoza line.

The NFL is a grind, whether you play, coach, or sit on your ass and watch from your coach while wagering on the sport. Sometimes, it is tough sledding. Sometimes, it's okay to blame the snow.

We just can't let it happen again, and we're determined not to let it.

Free NFL Picks Have Another Average Week (67% YTD)

After a hot 11-2 start for our Free NFL Picks, they've gone 4-4 and 3-3 in the last two weeks, giving them a 7-7 mark for those of you who chose not to finish the second grade.

Overall, that puts them at 18-9 this season, which while still pretty good, is very disappointing considering the start. We know that these things kind of even out over the course of a season, but we also know that we need to do a better job of differentiating between what qualifies as as system play. Two of our picks in particular, the Colts (-8) and the Bengals (-3) felt very square to us, leading us to think we should bring more of a human element to our picks rather than simply trust our numbers.

Still, all we've lost is a few followers and a little juice in the last two weeks, which isn't bad for what we would call a slump.

Obviously, both our Free NCAA Football Picks and our Free NFL Picks are not where we want them to be after a great start, so we have some work to do this week.

But did we mention we are 100% on Free UFL Picks!?!?!?!?!

The NFL breakdown follows:

Free NFL Picks
Week 1: 5-1
Week 2: 6-1
Week 3: 4-4

Week 4: 3-3

Overall: 18-9... 67%

Week 4 Free NFL Picks (71%)

We were hoping our Free NFL Picks would go something like 100-16 on the season, losing just one a week as we had the first two weeks, but Week 3 kind of opened our eyes a bit. We'll take a 4-4 week as a wake up call that, hey, things do get tougher than that. Still, we're pleased with a 15-6 start (72%) to the NFL season and hope to continue that this week:

Giants -3 1/2 over the Bears

Bengals -3 over the Browns

Falcons -7 over the 49ers

Colts -8 over the Jaguars

Redskins +6 over the Eagles

Chargers -9 over the Cardinals

Just six picks for us Sunday, similar to when we had six in Week 1. How did Week 1 go, again? Here's our full recap:

Free NFL Picks
Week 1: 5-1
Week 2: 6-1
Week 3: 4-4
Overall: 15-6... 71%

2009 NFL Mock Draft: Picks 27-29

It's the second-to-last day of our 2009 NFL Mock Draft as we apporach the real 2009 NFL Draft, and we have three more picks for you as we put the finishing touches on this thing. To see all the previous 26 picks, check out the upper right hand side of the page for the links. 

27. Colts: James Laurinaitis, LB, Ohio State

We're not too high on Laurinaitis, but he's a solid young player who can help fill a need in Indy. There's some talk of Laurinaitis going a little higher than this, but we think he'll land with the Colts and give them a decent value pick at 27. He had a good college career and can play in multiple defensive schemes, but he doesn't really excel at any particular area, which is why he's available at this point. 

28. Bills: Eben Britton, T, Arizona

This pick is somewhat of a wild card, but at the end of the day we feel like the Bills will fill the draft pick they received in a trade with the position that they traded to receive the draft pick--if that makes any sense. Britton is the next best available tackle on the board after some pretty good ones have already been taking, but he might just end up as another Bills reach. The Bills addressed the defensive line with the 11th pick, and our guess is that they go with the other line late in the first. 

29. Giants: Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina

The Giants need a receiver and Nicks needs a team--perfect fit. Nicks is the sixth wide out off of the board, which in reality might be a little high, but there are some talented pass catchers in this draft. The Giants will love Nicks' hands and his physical play, resembling some guy the G-Men used to have before he shot himself in the leg. 

Like we said, we'll have the last three picks of our 2009 NFL Mock Draft tomorrow, completing the first round of this year's crapshoot. 

Be sure to check back for the grand finale!

Free Super Bowl Pick

We hope you've enjoyed our 2009 Super Bowl 43 Prop Bet Spectacular, as it has been fun for us. All of those prop bets can be found on the upper right hand side of this very page, so check them out if you missed them. 

Now, though, it's time to pick the actual game. So, without further ado, here is our Free Super Bowl Pick. 

Cardinals +7 over the Steelers

Maybe the Cards won't win it, but they'll certainly be in it. The Super Bowl in recent years has become a very hard fought game, and it's now rare to find a complete mismatch, even if it looks like it should be on paper.

Just ask people who thought the Patriots would kill the Giants last year. 

People like us. 

Everybody knows about the Cardinals explosive offense, but we think the defense will make the difference for Arizona. 

Karlos Dansby. Adrian Wilson. Bertrand Berry. This is a very underrated group that has come into its own a bit in the playoffs. Ben Roethlisberger, even without the injuries he carries into the game, will have a hard time with this unit. 

We're not ready to pick the Cardinals straight up, but we certainly like taking them with seven points in their favor. 

So, despite our website's color layout suggesting that we might like the Steelers, we think we're playing our Cards right by backing Arizona. 

Super Bowl XLIII Prop Bet: The Gatorade Shower

To see the 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) Gatorade Shower Prop Bet in the game between the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers, click here.

Leading up to the Super Bowl, we'll be taking a look at various proposition bets for the 2009 Super Bowl, Super Bowl 43, Super Bowl XLIII, The Big Game, or whatever you want to call it. You can check out previous prop bet analysis on the upper right sidebar.

We've talked about the coin toss and the National Anthem, two prop bets that take place before all the action. Now it's time to talk about something that takes place after all, or at least most, of the action--the Gatorade shower!

Bodog has plenty of choices for you in the prop bet: What Color will the Gatorade be that is dumped on the Head Coach of the Winning Super Bowl Team?

There's lime green, yellow, orange, red, blue, clear/water, and whatever else they add or delete from this list after reading our analysis.

We might not be able to tell you exactly which color Gatorade will be dumped on the winning coach, but we can certainly narrow it down.

Go ahead and cross off orange, red, blue, and lime green from that list right away. The only way that any of those colors will make an appearance is if Bodog claims that the yellow Gatorade is really lime green, just to screw with everyone.

That leaves us with yellow (3/1 odds) and clear/water (4/5). Your safe bet here is to go with clear/water, though you'll lose some juice (get it?). If you're feeling a little risky, though, yellow is as safe a risk you can make at 3/1 odds this Super Bowl. Here's why:

In both the NFC and AFC Championship Games, yellow Gatorade was dumped onto the winning coaches.

Ken Whisenhunt got his improbable golden shower after the Cardinals clinched their first ever Super Bowl appearance...

As did Mike Tomlin after bringing the Steelers back to The Big Game for the team's second appearance in four years.

Now, despite the fact that yellow was the preferred color in both Championship games, the reason clear/water is the favorite is because of its history in recent Super Bowls.

Let's start with those Steelers back in Super Bowl XL in 2006, when Bill Cowher took a bath in the clear liquid.

In 2007, in a rainy Super Bowl XLI, Colts coach Tony Dungy found himself under a rain cloud shaped like a Gatorade bucket.

Then of course, last year in Super Bowl XLII, Giants coach Tom Coughlin received the perfect reward for his team's upset win.

So, in at least the last three Super Bowls, including one in which the Steelers made it rain on their coach, clear/water was the color beverage doused onto the winning signal caller.

In our view, you have two choices. You can either go with the Championship Game momentum of the yellow Gatorade and hope to triple your cash, or you can stick with the recent Super Bowl trend of clear/water.

Either way, this is a good prop bet for those looking to whet their appetite for wet coaches.

Super Bowl XLIII Prop Bet: The Coin Toss

To see our coin toss prop bet analysis for the 2011 Super Bowl XLIV (45) between the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers, click here.

Over the next week and half leading up to the Super Bowl, we'll be taking a look at various proposition bets for the 2009 Super Bowl, Super Bowl 43, Super Bowl XLIII, The Big Game, or whatever you want to call it. We'll start the same way the Cardinals and Steelers will start--with a coin toss.

The coin toss is always a popular prop bet because, well, we're not so sure why. It's just a guy flipping a quarter into the air. Nevertheless, it's one of the most wagered Super Bowl prop bet despite the fact that the wager is decided before kickoff.

For casual fans or those just watching the game for the Super Bowl commercials, it's nice to bet on the coin toss since it requires no knowledge whatsoever of the actual game being played and is completely random.

Or is it?

Yes, of course it is. But here are some fun facts to help you through betting on the coin flip:

• To prove how random a coin toss really is, you only need one stat: 21. In the 42 previous Super Bowls, the coin has landed 21 times on heads and 21 times on tails. Throw out any notion that one side of the coin might weigh more or that coin flips aren't completely random or that tails never fails. Coin tosses are absolutely a 50-50 chance, or in this case, a 21-21 chance.



• The team to win the coin toss has a losing record in the Super Bowl of 20-22, but the "winners" have had even less success recently. In the last 12 tosses, the winner of the toss was the loser of the game in nine of those contests. The Giants won the toss and the game last year, breaking a four game losing streak for teams that won the toss.



• The NFC has won the last 11 tossess and is 28-14 all-time in calling the correct side of the coin.



• The team to win the toss has always chosen to receive, and if for some reason your sportsbook offers a prop related to this, it seems like a good bet that the team to win the coss will continue this trend. As a few commenters have pointed out, we completely overlooked the new rule which allows teams to defer on the opening toss, so it will be interesting to see if the Super Bowl gets its first defer call in history.

So, the bottom line is, when betting on Super Bowl props, the coin flip is always a toss-up.

Stay tuned for more in-depth analysis of some fun and some crazy Super Bowl 43 prop bets.



Beat the NFL odds on this year's Super Bowl when you sign up for football picks at BetFirms.

Free NFL Championship Game Picks

Our Free NFL Picks have been unimpressive in the playoffs after an average year, but here are some picks for you to follow blindly anyway.

Cardinals + 4 1/2 over the Eagles

The return of Anquan Boldin should bolster a passing attack that didn't really need any bolstering. We like the road dog in this spot, especially with everybody already pinning the Eagles as this year's Giants.

Steelers -6 over the Ravens

We keep betting against the Ravens and keep paying for it, but while it is hard for a team to beat another team three times in one season, a healthy Willie Parker will make the difference for Pittsburgh. Expect a typical close game early between these two, but in the end, the Steelers should pull away convincingly.

So yes, despite all the success of the road teams in this playoffs, both home teams are Free NFL Picks this week.

Good luck.

Technical Difficulties at Stock Lemon

Well, evidently our Free NFL Picks for Sunday did not get posted. It isn't a huge deal, since the picks went 1-1 (we stuck with the favorites again and had the Steelers over the Chargers and Giants over the Eagles).

Unfortunately for us, this didn't happen a day sooner, when our picks made us worthy of a Vegas Watch fade.

Also, we've noticed our blogroll was a little depleted. We have added a couple of new sites, but please check to make sure your site is still in the Lemmy's Friends section on the right-hand side of the page.

Of course, if your site isn't and you would like it to be, e-mail us at stocklemonblog@gmail.com and we'll arrange a link exchange.

Hopefully we can sort out our issues here in the coming days, but bear with us if updates are sporadic for the time being.

Free NFL Picks End Regular Season At 59%

And with that, ladies and gentlemen, another NFL regular season is in the books. Here at Stock Lemon, it means another successful season, though we certainly would have liked to play more games--and would have if we knew our Free NFL Picks would finish at just 59%.

The main reason for the sucess of our Free NFL Picks is that we are so picky with them. Rather than play nearly all of the games each week as we're routinely tempted to do, we stick to our computer system in hopes that we'll finish in the high 60's or low 70's for winning percentage.

Obviously, that didn't happen, and while 59% is respectable, it's definitely lower than we hoped. The good news for us: there is plenty of playoff football ahead, which means plenty more opportunities to improve on that mark.

On the bright side, we ended the regular season with a 3-1 day, giving us our 59% with a record of 26-18-2.

Thanks to the 0-16 Lions being just a little bit less awful than expected, Detroit covered a +10 spread in a 31-21 loss to the Packers. Elsewhere, the Giants nearly won outright and easily covered a +7 spread on the road against the Vikings with a 20-19 loss, while the Dolphins went from 1-15 to 11-5, covering a +3 spread with a 24-17 win over the Jets in the process.

Thus concludes our regular season NFL fun for the year.

We will have a play for every playoff game, regardless of whether or not it is a system play or not, so check us out for all of your playoff betting needs.

Free NFL Picks Close Out Regular Season

The last batch of Free NFL Picks for the 2008 regular season is in, and the picks, unlike the last few weeks, there are actually multiple picks.

As you'll notice, it's a very interesting week for the system as all four picks are underdogs. With the regular season ending and various teams resting starters for much of the finale, we tried to estimate the time each team will play their starters, and then calculated our data as we normally do each week.

As a result, the picks are a little different from our normal system, but are Free NFL Picks nonetheless.

It's also interesting that we have all of the NFC North covered this week, but since there are so many intriguing matchups, it isn't surprising.

Lions +11 over Packers

The Lions have everything to play for in this one while the Packers are just limping out of the year. Granted, nobody wants to lose to an 0-15 team, but with an 11-point cushion, the Packers don't even have to lose for this to be a winner. We're tempted by that +500 moneyline as well.

Bears +3 over Texans

Apparently we like the Bears to make the playoffs, when you factor in this pick with the next one. Although the Bears could still lose in a close one and miss the playoffs for us to win both bets, if your bookie is still taking bets on the NFC North Champ, it looks like our Free NFL Picks are telling you to take the Bears.

Giants +7 over Vikings

The Giants don't have much to play, or anything for that matter, and we still like this pick. That should tell you all you need to know about the Vikings.

Dolphins +3 over Jets

Cold weather game + Brett Favre = Dolphins +3. It's still hard to say with a straight face that Chad Pennington has a stronger arm than Brett Favre, but at this point, it's the truth.

Good luck!

Sunday Night Free NFL Pick

Just one play this week, although a Monday Free NFL Pick is still a possibility.

Giants +3 over the Cowboys

The Cowboys need it more and are at home, yeah yeah, but the Giants aren't about to lose back-to-back games. 

Good luck!

Obscure Athlete Drinking Photos

By now, you've probably all seen plenty of pictures on the internet of professional athletes drinking and partying as if cameras don't exist and nobody will see them enjoying their free time. Many of these images end up on popular sites like Deadspin, but aren't they getting a little old? Forget about, among others, the Matt Leinart house parties or the soft-core porn that is Vince Young partying semi-nude with a bunch of dudes.

What's that? The star quarterback is out partying!?! Booooring. Ever since Joe Namath, NFL quarterbacks have been taking beer bongs and stripping in front of other men (maybe that's just Vince), it's what star quarterbacks are supposed to do.

Fortunately, Stock Lemon has what true fans are really dying to see--pictures of backup position players out partying! So without further ado, we present to you four of the most obscure players in the NFL... getting drunk! For starters, here's New York Giants backup defensive end Dave Tollefson, keeping it real, yo.

Then there's Green Bay Packers punter Jon Ryan, whose had a little too much pale with his ale.

And here's journeyman kicker Dave Rayner, currently with the Miami Dolphins, blending in nicely with some friends.

Lastly, how about Detroit Lions third-string running back Brian Calhoun, getting in the shotgun formation and then, naturally, scoring.

We know you love your "athletes getting drunk" photos out there on the internet, but that's about all the obscurity we can handle. It's always nice to know that even NFL players are really just regular guys who do regular things like consume alcoholic beverages. And gamble.

BREAKING NEWS: Strahan to Retire From Giants

We don't typically break this type of news, but this is too big for us to pass up. A source close to both the New York Giants and Michael Strahan has informed us that the Giants defensive end will not return for another season in 2008.

While the official announcement is not expected for at least a couple of weeks, our source indicated that Strahan has already told the team that he will not be back. Per the source, Strahan telephoned head coach Tom Coughlin to inform him of his decision, but will wait to take it public.

This news comes on the same day that another legend, Packers quarterback Brett Favre, officially called it quits. Perhaps Strahan saw the emotional press conference Favre held earlier today and decided that he is ready to hang them up after knocking off the Patriots to earn his first career Super Bowl ring.

Maybe Favre is also the reason why Strahan will wait to break the news. Favre gift-wrapped a sack for Strahan back in 2002, allowing the Giants legend to break the record for sacks in a single season. Maybe Strahan is simply letting Favre enjoy his moment in the limelight.

The Giants have lost a few key players in free agency, and Strahan will be difficult for the defending champs to replace.

Super Bowl XLII Most Watched Ever

A record number of viewers tuned in to the Super Bowl on Fox yesterday to watch, among other things, Justin Tuck and the Giants defensive line make Tom Brady look like the backup college quarterback that he once was. According to Nielsen Media Research, the Giants upset over the Patriots drew 97.5 million viewers, roughly 3.5 million more than the previous high.

For us, it means we can chalk up another prop bet victory , since we correctly predicted that this would be the most watched game in NFL history. Our record for Super Bowl prop bets this year was a modest 2-1, and we look forward to a few more prop bet victories on the Pro Bowl this coming Sunday.

No Handshake From Don Shula

Following an unexpected Giants victory over the Patriots in the Super Bowl, Don Shula was not on the field to shake Bill Belichick's hand, just like we expected.

Even if Shula had planned on shaking the hand of the Patriots' coach, Belichick left the field with one second still remaining, due to a goofy scene that called for Eli Manning to kneel the ball before the game was officially over. Since the Giants won, though, it is doubtful that Shula was anywhere near the field. Actually, it would have been doubtful either way.

Congrats to those of you who were on this Super Bowl prop bet. If you weren't, there's always next year--or there's always the NBA this year. Keep checking back for our hot Free NBA Picks throughout the rest of the NBA season.

Countdown to the Super Bowl

It's finally here! The biggest and hopefully most watched Super Bowl of all-time is today, and since Super Bowl week is so long, we thought we'd remind you of our plays for Super Bowl XLII. We have three prop bets, and one actual wager on the game. To recap, they are:

• Will this be the most watched Super Bowl ever? Yes.
• Jordin Sparks will sing the National Anthem in under 1 minute and 42 seconds.
• Will Don Shula be on the field to shake Bill Belichick's hand after the game? No.
• And for the actual game, New England Patriots -11 over the New York Giants.

There they are, folks. Enjoy the game and good luck.

Free Super Bowl Pick

We've told you about some Super Bowl prop bets that look appealing to us, but what about the actual game? As you might expect, we have a free pick for that as well. Since the game is tomorrow, now is the perfect time to finally reveal that the Stock Lemon Super Bowl XLII pick is...

New England Patriots -11 over the New York Giants

This has the makings of a blow out, and we're more than comfortable laying some chalk on the Patriots. If you still have any money left after Jordin Sparks sings the national anthem in under 1 minute and 42 seconds, we recommend taking New England in the game.

Super Bowl May Smash Audience Record

Here's an article for anyone still on the fence about whether or not Super Bowl XLII between the Giants and Patriots will be the most watched in history. In case you forgot, we took Yes for -200 at Bodog, and are feeling better than ever about that Super Bowl prop bet. From the article:

While the Patriots' quest for history will be the focus, they must beat the New York Giants, who represent the biggest television market in the country. The Giants' underdog run to the Super Bowl has captivated its fan base, and the NFC championship victory over the Green Bay Packers had the biggest audience for that game since 1995, according to Nielsen Media Research.

There's also the fresh memory of the thrilling game the Giants and Patriots played on the last night of the regular season, where New England had to come from behind to keep their unbeaten streak alive. That game was seen by 34.5 million people, the most-watched NFL regular season game since 1990. Fox says that setting a record is possible.

The game airs on Fox on Sunday, so there's plenty of time to make your bet.

Even More Super Bowl Prop Bets

We've already picked out a few Super Bowl props that we like, but for those of you who don't fancy betting on hypothetical handshakes and national anthem times, we've gone ahead and found a few more props that you might be interested in betting on.

Just like the props we've already bet on, few of these have anything to do with the Patriots and Giants actually playing football. What would be the fun in that? We have nothing riding on any of these (yet), but here are a few of the other options out there:

• Which QB will Troy Aikman mention first after opening kickoff, Eli Manning or Tom Brady?
• How many times will Joe Buck mention Peyton Manning's name during the broadcast? Over/Under 5 1/2 times
• If the Patriots win, will Bob Kraft mention the 72 Dolphins during the Trophy Presentation, yes or no?
• How many times will Archie Manning be shown on the TV Broadcast? Over/Under 4 1/2 times
• Will the entire Fox pre-game team pick the Patriots to win the Super Bowl, yes or no?

These props and more can all be found on Bodog. If for some reason you want to bet on the actual game, they have a few props for that as well.