Will Brett Favre Come Out of Retirement in 2011?

Now that the NFL lockout has finally been lifted, we can get back to betting on the game of football. Once again, we spent the entire summer desperately trying to maintain some sort of return web traffic by conjuring up Free Picks in baseball, tennis, golf, arena football and soccer. And, by all accounts, all picks (as well as attempts at more traffic) failed miserably.

But now, the NFL lockout has been lifted, and we can get back to our bread and butter. In 2011, we finished the season with an even 60% success rate on our Free NFL Picks. While we would like to improve on that number, 60% is generally a very good percentage if you want to make a living betting on football games--which of course, every human being to ever live would love to do.

And so, we present our first bet on the 2011 NFL season, fittingly enough involving the same Brett Favre prop bet that pops up this time of year, lockout or not.

Will Brett Favre return to the NFL in 2011?
Yes +275
No -350

Our wager is an emphatic no. While we've been burned by Favre on this very prop before, this year, for certain, he is retired. Some have wondered if a team like the Eagles--soon to be in need of a quality backup--or the Panthers or Seahawks--teams in need of a quality starter--will come calling to No. 4, especially considering the short time frame caused by the lockout in which rookie quarterbacks (like Carolina's Cam Newton) have to prepare for the upcoming season.

Rest assured, though, that the only way Favre benefited from the lockout is in the boost to retirement pensions. Favre is retired, and though the juice is horrible, this isn't a bad bet to lay down a crisp Benjamin and collect some easy money.

2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) Prop Bet: The Jerry Jones Camera Shots

Leading up to the 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) between the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers, we'll be taking a look at Super Bowl proposition betting, or more specifically, the fun or funny Super Bowl 45 (XLV) prop bets that you hear so much about. That includes props on the Super Bowl coin toss, Super Bowl halftime show, Super Bowl National Anthem, Super Bowl postgame Gatorade Shower dump and much more. Follow along on the Super Bowl sidebar to the right!

As we continue to bring you the best 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) Prop Bet analysis on the web, we're reminded that all of our prop bets will be taking place in Cowboys stadium--aka the House that Jerry built.

The stadium is so massive that it is actually a big part of the storyline in this year's Super Bowl, and as such Jerry Jones has been all over the news promoting an even (the Super Bowl, duh) that doesn't need promoting.

So when game time actually arrives, will Jerry Jones continue to be plastered all over the TV?

Let's take a look at this prop bet involving Cowboys owner Jerry Jones:

How Many Times will FOX show Jerry Jones on TV during the Game?
Wager is on the number of times Jerry Jones will appear on TV during the Game (from kick off until final whistle). Live pictures only, Any Taped Pictures or Past Video does not count towards wager.
Over 2.5 (-135)
Under 2.5 (-105)

Like the prop bet involving Brett Favre being mentioned, this prop bet feasts on the casual football fans who have been hearing about Jerry Jones all week on CNN, or whatever channel casual football fans usually have turned on (weather?). And much like the Favre prop, we think that this will all end on Super Sunday--or at least from the kickoff until the final whistle, as the prop requires.

Jerry Jones might get a shot or two of TV time, but the story no longer becomes about him during game day. Many of these enticing prop bets become obsolete during the 4 hours or so that a game/halftime performance actually occurs. And, again like the Favre prop, so many public bettors pound the over on these bets that you can actually get better odds on the right play--the under.

A Jerry Jones sighting seems likely, but we wouldn't even bet to see him once during the game. When the media is no longer desperate for stories as they are for the two weeks leading up to the Super Bowl (team photos, really?), all the backstories disappear--as well Jerry Jones when the television cameras come around.

UNDER 2.5 is the play, despite what the public action might say.

We're going to kick things into overdrive in the next couple days, with several 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) Prop Bets per day instead of our usual one or two. It's the Super Bowl, and as we mentioned, that means quantity over quality winning out in pre-game stories.

2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) Prop Bet: The Brett Favre Mentions

Leading up to the 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) between the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers, we'll be taking a look at Super Bowl proposition betting, or more specifically, the fun or funny Super Bowl 45 (XLV) prop bets that you hear so much about. That includes props on the Super Bowl coin toss, Super Bowl halftime show, Super Bowl National Anthem, Super Bowl postgame Gatorade Shower dump and much more. Follow along on the Super Bowl sidebar to the right!

Sure, Aaron Rodgers has led the Packers to a Super Bowl. Sure, he's won as many playoff games this season as his predecessor Brett Favre won in his last 10 years with the Packers. But to many--be it in the media or at the water cooler--Rodgers is still in the shadow of the man who has quarterbacked the division rival Minnesota Vikings for the past two seasons. And that brings us to our next 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) prop bet.

While Aaron Rodgers and surely many Packer fans have probably had just about enough of the constant mentions of Brett Favre on various broadcasts and in print, we're more than happy to watch members of the media babble on about Favre when talking about Rodgers--because we know two media members who won't be doing that.

Check out the Super Bowl prop that has been created as a result of the Favre/Rodgers saga:

How Many Times will FOX mention “Brett Favre” on TV during the Game?
Wager is on the number of times“Brett Favre”will be mentioned on TV during the Game (from kick off until final whistle). Live commentary only, Any Taped or Past Video does not count towards wager, must say“Brett Favre”exactly.
Over 2.5 (-140)

UNDER 2.5 (EVEN)

To many in the public who have been hearing Favre/Rodgers comparisons ad nauseam for the past three seasons (and especially for the casual football fans attracted to fun Super Bowl proposition betting), this looks like a steal. How could the FOX broadcast not mention Brett Favre at least three times during the Super Bowl?

Well, we can assure you, they won't. The broadcast team of Joe Buck and Troy Aikman have literally called the last five Packer games, and they've had plenty opportunity to talk about Favre over that time. And while they've mentioned No. 4 every so often, they aren't the ones in the media beating us to death on this topic.

During today's 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) Media Day, and throughout the rest of the week, you'll hear all about Favre as you have up to this point. But come game day, you can count on Buck and Aikman focusing on the players on the field and recognizing that this is Aaron Rodger's show in a game between the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers.

And, of course, the loophole that requires the announcers to use the entire name "Brett Favre" doesn't hurt. Everybody knows who the Packers previous quarterback was, which allows for vague mentions about "replacing a legend" or living up to "that other guy."

So while the pre-game Super Bowl hype, including the pre-game shows leading right up to the game on Sunday, and post-game might throw around F(avre)-bombs like nothing, we're predicting that that won't be the case during the actual game, as the prop specifies (kickoff to the final whistle). We predict one full Brett Favre mention--if that--but certainly no more, and certainly not three (more than 2 1/2).

More Jenn Sterger and More Free NFL Picks (63% YTD)

We promise we don't just pick the Jets in games so that we have an excuse to post pictures of Brett Favre's girlfriend Jenn Sterger. They simply fit in with our system, getting high marks in the "potential to post picture of hot girls" category. We are a slave to the system... as we should be. We have hit 63% of our Free NFL Picks this year, which is right about where we want to be (obviously we always want to be higher, but 63% is a respectable mark).

And so we will hope to keep that up with four picks on Sunday.

Jets -6 over the Dolphins

Vikings +3 over the Giants

Packers -7 over the Lions

Redskins +3 over the Buccaneers

Good luck!

Week 5 Free NFL Picks (67% YTD)

Our Free NFL Picks started hot and have cooled off the last two weeks, with consecutive .500 outings. We're hoping to get back on track with a week of three-point favorites! Not usually the way to accomplish a winning record, but lots of value in these plays this week.

Falcons -3 over the Browns

Packers -3 over the Redskins

Lions -3 over the Rams

Texans -3 over the Giants

Colts -7 over the Chiefs

Titans +7 over the Cowboys

49ers -3 1/2 over the Eagles

That should be it for tomorrow's action. Again, very favorite heavy and there are some "square" looking plays in the bunch, but we're going to trust our 67% system while we can still say that it's 67%.

Here's the evidence:

Free NFL Picks
Week 1: 5-1
Week 2: 6-1
Week 3: 4-4
Week 4: 3-3
Overall: 18-9... 67%

As a side note, we aren't planning on having a play for Monday's Jets-Vikes game, but we might as well continue to post pictures of Jenn Sterger in light of Brett Favre's penis pictures hitting the web. She seems to have given our college picks a little boost (more on that, hopefully, in a bit), so we'll pull a Favre and try to ride Jenn.

Week 6 Free NCAA Football Picks

We promised a little less volume and a little more over/unders... and we will come through on both promises just a little. With our picks struggling (a little?), we were a little more picky with our sides and a little more trustworthy in our totals, and hopefully the end results are A LOT more profitable. After Thursday's win, we'll have a total of seven plays this week, two less than our lowest week so far.

Georgia Tech -10 over Virginia

Michigan/Michigan State UNDER 65

Alabama -7 1/2 over South Carolina

Wake Forest +3 1/2 over Navy

Florida State/Miami OVER 49

Penn State -8 over Illinois

If posting a picture of Stock Lemon favorite and former Florida State babe Jenn Sterger doesn't get it done amidst all the Brett Favre sexting allegations, we don't know how to bust this slump. The ugly results to date:

Free NCAA Football Picks
Week 1: 5-4-1
Week 2: 8-4
Week 3: 3-6
Week 4: 4-7
Week 5: 3-6
Week 6: 1-0
Overall: 25-27-1... 48%

Sides: 24-27-1... 47%

Totals: 1-0... 100%!!!!!!!

That's Why We Don't Bet Against Farm Girls

Our life-long philosophy proved true again last night, with Nebraska easily covering the -11 spread over Kansas State and giving our Free NCAA Football Picks a 1-0 start to the week.

We should just quit while we're ahead, giving us our first winning week in college football in... well... long enough, but we don't know any better and will have several more picks for tomorrow's action posted a little later tonight.

Stay tuned!

And no, none of the girls that we have featured in pictures have been sent text message pictures of Brett Favre's penis. That we know of.

Our Free NFL Picks Are Back!

Pardon us while we openly slobber all over our screen--and not for the image above.

The day we've all been waiting for is almost here. The beginning of the NFL season. And with that, comes the beginning of our 2010 Free NFL Picks. What more can you ask for?

The pick is in for Thursday night, with Sunday's picks to follow in the coming days.

Minnesota Vikings +6 over the New Orleans Saints

We don't mind that Brett Favre is playing on a bum ankle, or that the Saints pummeled him in the NFC Championship Game last season, or that he is without his favorite target from last year. In fact, we love it. A line that should be closer to a push than a touchdown has been seriously inflated up to +6 for Minnesota, and that could grow still. Folks, this is going to be a close game, and we're not ruling out a Vikings win.

People forget that this is mostly the same Vikings team that woulda shoulda coulda beat the Saints the last time around. It's a very talented squad that isn't even getting the respect they deserve within their own division--that they won in 2009! The bottom line is, we like this spread a lot to open up the season.

As much as we're sure you enjoyed our annual quasi-hiatus over the summer, we are back in full force. After Thursday, a full weekend of NCAA Football and the NFL will follow. For weeks. So sit back and enjoy it, and we'll try to make you a little money while you do.

Are You Ready for Some Football?

The slow summer that we've all gotten used to here at Stock Lemon is about to come to an abrupt end. After months without our money sport--football--both the NFL and NCAA Football schedules are about to get underway. With them, our successful Free NFL Picks and Free NCAA Football Picks come as well.

After several text messages to his Viking teammates, and others to resident Stock Lemon hottie Jenn Sterger (we have never been more jealous of Lemmy than right now), Brett Favre is back, which means football is right around the corner. And our Free Picks systems are never a Croc.

So come back later this week for our first Free NCAA Football Picks with a full slate of games Thursday and Saturday, and then again for Thursday/Sunday/Monday's NFL action. And then again for Week 2, and again, and again, and again.

The sun has set on the annual quiet Stock Lemon summer, so we'll see you early and often in September.

Former Packer QB Makes Big Play to Lead NFC Team To Super Bowl

Just as everyone expected, a former Packer QB made a decisive play to lead his team to a Super Bowl. We're talking, of course, of Mark Brunell (pictured bottom left), whose snap on Garrett Hartley's game winning field goal helped the Saints to Super Bowl XLIV.

What? Were you expecting somebody else?

The Vikings, meanwhile, can now officially add a word into their dictionary that Packer fans have know for years.

Favred

-verb

1. To have one's hopes raised to ridiculously joyous levels so as to put a person in a state of vulnerability, causing blindness to the inevitability of complete and utter failure.

And with that final Brett Favre choke, the Super Bowl -- and thus, the Super Bowl 44 coverage here at Stock Lemon -- is set. The Indianapolis Colts and the New Orleans saints will go head-to-head in Miami.

Be sure to follow Stock Lemon throughout the next two weeks with unprecedented Super Bowl XLIV proposition bet coverage.

Sunday Night Free NFL Pick!

It's been a little slow pick wise around here, which should turnaround as we really get into the NBA and NCAA Basketball. Don't worry, though, we aren't done with the NFL. Despite no picks earlier today, we do have a play on the Sunday nighter.

Vikings -3 1/2 over the Cardinals

Brett Favre is playing like he should have been with the Packers had he not been busy plotting out a plan to burn every bridge in Wisconsin. We'll ride the Vikings for the rest of Favre's revenge tour.

Good luck!

Does Favre Prefer Minnesota to Wisconsin?

Much has been made about Brett Favre's switch from the Packers to the rival Vikings. While the aging quarterback has found some success with his new team, the question remains, does he like Minnesota better than Wisconsin?

Let's compare which is better with ten important categories:

Wisconsin vs. Minnesota

NFL: Packers Vikings

NBA: Bucks Timberwolves

MLB: Brewers Twins

NHL: None Wild

College: Badgers Gophers

State Bird Robin; Common Loon

State Tree Sugar Maple: Red Pine

State Flower: Wood Violet Pink and White Lady Slipper

State Song: On, Wisconsin Hail! Minnesota

State Motto: Forward The Star of the North

According to our count, Wisconsin wins out 6-4 in the essentials. The Packers, Bucks, and Twins prevail as the most successful franchises historically, while the rest is personal preference. Sure, it isn't the most scientific way to determine which state is better, but Favre has never been orthodox or sane, so we think this works.

What do you think? Any Pink and White Lady Slipper fans out there?

Bet on Brett: Brett Favre vs. Aaron Rodgers Props

What's that? Brett Favre is returning to Lambeau Field to play the Packers for the first time as a Viking? Why haven't we heard anything about this yet?

Ok, so we have. But we haven't posted any proposition bets on it yet! So, without further delay, here are our picks in the Favre Bowl II matchup between Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre. Winners are in bold.

Who will have more completions Week 8 of the 2009 NFL Regular Season?

Both players must start game for wagers to have action.

Brett Favre (MIN)	+1½ (+105)
Aaron Rodgers (GB)	-1½ (-135)

Brett Favre – Total Passing Yards Week 8 vs the Green Bay Packers

Player must start game for wagers to have action.

Over	250½ (EVEN)o (-130)u
Under		-

Brett Favre – Total TD Passes Week 8 vs the Green Bay Packers

Player must start game for wagers to have action.

Over	1½ (-150)o (+120)u
Under		-

Brett Favre – Total Interceptions Week 8 vs the Green Bay Packers

Player must start game for wagers to have action.

Over	1 (+135)o (-165)u
Under		-

What will be the result of Brett Favre’s first pass at Lambeau Field Week 8 vs the Green Bay Packers?

Player must play in game for wagers to have action.

Complete	2/5
Incomplete	19/10
Interception	25/2

What will be the result of Brett Favre’s last pass at Lambeau Field Week 8 vs the Green Bay Packers?

Player must play in game for wagers to have action.

Complete	1/2
Incomplete	31/20
Interception	10/1

Aaron Rodgers – Total Passing Yards Week 8 vs the Minnesota Vikings

Player must start game for wagers to have action.

Over	270½ (-125)o (-105)u
Under		-

Aaron Rodgers – Total Sacks Week 8 vs the Minnesota Vikings

Player must start game for wagers to have action.

Over	3½ (-120)o (-110)u
Under		-

Who will have more completions Week 8 of the 2009 NFL Regular Season?

Both players must start game for wagers to have action.

Brett Favre (GB)	+1½ (-115)
Aaron Rodgers (GB)	-1½ (-115)

Our biggest surprise of the bunch is taking Favre 10/1 to throw a pick as his last pass at Lambeau. Not so surprising, though, when you consider that his last pass at Lambeau to date was a costly pick to ruin his team's chances at a Super Bowl.

Good luck!

Brett Favre's First Practice With Vikings

Are we there yet?

As you can see, in addition to picking sports games and stocks, we're also in the business of predicting the future.

This is Brett Favre on the first day of Vikings Training Camp, in uniform and ready to begin his 2009 revenge tour against the Packers.

Favre appeared on Joe Buck's new HBO show tonight, Joe Buck Live, to publicly confirm his interest in playing for the Vikings this upcoming season after flaming out with the Jets last year.

Okay, okay. So that's a picture of John David Booty. But it won't be long before that's Favre occupying his purple No. 4 jersey (or red for practices). If you can find a prop bet asking whether or not he'll return to the NFL this season, consider it the easiest money you'll ever make.

Free NFL Picks Close Out Regular Season

The last batch of Free NFL Picks for the 2008 regular season is in, and the picks, unlike the last few weeks, there are actually multiple picks.

As you'll notice, it's a very interesting week for the system as all four picks are underdogs. With the regular season ending and various teams resting starters for much of the finale, we tried to estimate the time each team will play their starters, and then calculated our data as we normally do each week.

As a result, the picks are a little different from our normal system, but are Free NFL Picks nonetheless.

It's also interesting that we have all of the NFC North covered this week, but since there are so many intriguing matchups, it isn't surprising.

Lions +11 over Packers

The Lions have everything to play for in this one while the Packers are just limping out of the year. Granted, nobody wants to lose to an 0-15 team, but with an 11-point cushion, the Packers don't even have to lose for this to be a winner. We're tempted by that +500 moneyline as well.

Bears +3 over Texans

Apparently we like the Bears to make the playoffs, when you factor in this pick with the next one. Although the Bears could still lose in a close one and miss the playoffs for us to win both bets, if your bookie is still taking bets on the NFC North Champ, it looks like our Free NFL Picks are telling you to take the Bears.

Giants +7 over Vikings

The Giants don't have much to play, or anything for that matter, and we still like this pick. That should tell you all you need to know about the Vikings.

Dolphins +3 over Jets

Cold weather game + Brett Favre = Dolphins +3. It's still hard to say with a straight face that Chad Pennington has a stronger arm than Brett Favre, but at this point, it's the truth.

Good luck!

Brett Favre Swears Just Like a Kid Out There

Aw, look at Brett Favre out there, he's like a little kid in that tunnel, swearing for the love of the game. He drops F bombs like we would drop F bombs if we could beat the Patriots on Thursday night. Just like a little kid out there, having fun, yelling profanities the way profanities were meant to be yelled.

Though you have to wait until about the 2:37 mark before you get a glimpse of Favre, it's worth it to watch him put together a two consecutive curse streak. Nobody does it like Brett Favre.

UPDATE: This video has been removed from Youtube. You'll have to take our word for it.

Advice From Brett Favre

You might have heard a little rumor earlier today that Jets QB Brett Favre contacted the Lions to dish out the goods on his former team prior to Detroit's Week 2 meeting with the Packers. What we've learned, though, is that Favre didn't stop with the Lions. In fact, he gave out plenty of advice to team's before Week 7. Here's what we've learned:

To the New Orleans Saints: I have the consecutive start streak record for quarterbacks, did you know that? Reggie Bush and Jeremy Shockey will be fine. Knee injuries and sports hernias are nothing to worry about--I'm sure they won't aggravate them. I broke me thumb once, and I played. Did I mention I have the record for most starts?

To the Dallas Cowboys: Brad Johnson's won as many Super Bowls as I have, so he must be good. Trust me, you won't need Tony Romo this week.

To the Indianapolis Colts: Look, Peyton Manning, double coverages are your friends. I've thrown so many balls in practice against this secondary, and, well, they've all been picked. But don't let that stop you from throwing to guys that are clearly covered. These safeties are a joke. By the way, if you want to miss a start at any time soon, that'd be great, because that consecutive start streak is mine!

To Stock Lemon: Take the Cowboys, Saints, and Colts this week.

So, yeah, we blame Brett Favre.

Lean Toward the Under Tonight

With the Jets and Chargers facing off on Monday Night Football tonight, a lot of the talk is on the offensive weapons of both teams. But let's take a look at those "weapons."

Philip Rivers has been hot for the Chargers, but we don't expect him to keep it up. Ladainian Tomlinson is injured, and might not even play. As for the Jets, their only offensive weapon is Brett Favre, who has been restricted by the play-calling of Jets coach Eric Mangini and plays in a struggling offense. All of that said, we like the under tonight.

New York Jets/San Diego Chargers UNDER 47

That said, we are still debating whether or not to make this a Free NFL Pick. We need to look at a few more numbers to see if this play qualifies, so far now it is simply a strong lean. Remember, our Free NFL Picks are 7-4 so far, which is 64%.

Stay tuned, as we'll officially announce whether or not it is a Free NFL Pick prior to kickoff. UPDATE: With Ladainian Tomlinson in the starting lineup, we aren't going to make this a Free NFL Pick, as it no longer fits our computer system. We still are leaning this way and might put a small amount on it, though.

Patriots and Packers Win For 2-0 Day

Yes, folks, that is a Patriots quarterback celebrating after a nice victory and cover for Stock Lemon. No, folks, that is not Tom Brady.

In for the injured Brady, Matt Cassel did enough to lead the Patriots to a 19-10 victory over the Jets, which covers the +1 1/2 and gives us a Game of the Week win.

The Pats D made Brett Favre look... well... old, and the AFC champs continue to dominate the regular season.

Speaking of Favre, his old team in Green Bay also won us some money, with a 48-25 stomping of the Lions. It got close for a while, but Aaron Rodgers and the Pack pulled away to make the -3 spread look foolish.

After a 2-0 day in the NFL, our Free NFL Picks are now 5-2 to start the young season, which is an impressive 71%. Make sure to check back every weekend for more free winners in the NFL.

Keep an Eye on the Patriots Line

As Tom Brady limped off the field Sunday, we couldn't wait to see the line for the Patriots next game agains the Jets this week. We figured, with the star quarterback lost for the year in a game that saw his team barely sneak by the Chiefs, the Patriots won't be getting any respect this week against Brett Favre and the J-E-T-S.

We were right.

The Patriots line is +1 1/2 on Bodog, and that will be one to watch for this weekend as we dish out our Free NFL Picks (which were 60% in week one). Keep a close eye on this line, as the public might give the Patriots even more points!

The bottom line is this: the Patriots went 18-1 and earned a Super Bowl appearance last year as a team. Although Brady was a huge part of that, the Patriots still have a great team, and should still be able to beat the Jets.

Brady or no Brady, Favre or no Favre, there's no way we pass up on a chance to take the most dominant team in the league at +1 1/2 over the Jets, who looked shakey at best last week against the Dolphins.

All that the new Pats QB Matt Cassel has to do is chuck it up to Randy Moss, which he proved capable of in Kansas City, and the Patriots stellar offensive line, underrated rushing game, and solid defense should take care of the rest.

When the Patriots steamroll the Jets this weekend, remember to thank us. And Bernard Pollard.