Showing posts with label new orleans saints. Show all posts
Showing posts with label new orleans saints. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Free NFL Picks Open 2011 With a Thursday Over/Under


After a successful 60% season for our Free NFL Picks in 2010, we figure there's only one way to open the 2011 season: by doing something completely different.

We rarely bet over/unders in football and generally have a better grasp of the point spreads, but Thursday night we're making an exception.

Packers/Saints UNDER 47

Two explosive offenses pitted against each other? Has to be a high-scoring game, right? Not so fast, we say. Historically, the Thursday opener doesn't always bring out the firepower, as the teams come out of the gate a little sluggish.

In fact, the Saints have twice opened the season on Thursday, once as the champ and another as the visitor, and have scored a combined 24 points in their previous two season opening efforts (including a 14-9 win over the Vikings last season).

Besides, the last time these two teams met, they combined to score only... uh... 80 points.

Still, we think this game will end up closer to 20-17 as the Super Bowl champs open with the last team to hold that title.

After a 5-1 (83%) start to our Free NCAA Football Picks, we're glad to be back to football. We'll have a full slate of college games Saturday and, finally, a full schedule of NFL action as well. At the low, low price of free to you, reader of this random blog.

Friday, January 7, 2011

The Road to the Super Bowl Begins (Free NFL Picks 60% YTD)


The NFL Playoffs are finally here, and with that, we officially begin our journey toward the 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45).

So go ahead, pick us up and let's go for a ride.

We will have Free NFL Picks (60% in the regular season) throughout the playoffs, starting with one Saturday:

Seattle Seahawks +11 over the New Orleans Saints

This is one of the weirdest games in recent memory, as it seems clear to everyone that the 7-9 Seahawks have no chance. And yet, here we are. Part of us feels like Vegas is just bating us with this 11-point spread, but part of us, perhaps out of delusion, thinks the Seahawks could completely surprise everyone and win the darn thing.

New Orleans won at home against Seattle this year, 34-19, a 15-point win that would suggest they can easily cover an 11-point spread. But a playoff home crowd in one of the toughest stadiums to play in; one of the bigger underdogs in playoff history; a complete lack of a reliable rushing threat for New Orleans; and the fact that the spread is at freaking -11 for a road playoff team have us on the Seahawks. This game has garbage cover written all over it.

This could be an interesting start to the NFL playoffs for our Free NFL Picks.

Thursday, September 9, 2010

A Hot Start For Our Free NFL Picks


So far, so good for our Free NFL Picks. Granted its only one game, but a 1-0 start is much better than the alternative.

The Vikings gave us our hot start by squeaking out a cover against the Saints, losing by five to keep a +6 spread in tact.

We'll have a ton more picks on Sunday and really kick of this NFL season in style. But for now, we'll enjoy our 100% Free NFL Picks.

Free NFL Picks
Thursday: 1-0... 100%

Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Our Free NFL Picks Are Back!


Pardon us while we openly slobber all over our screen--and not for the image above.

The day we've all been waiting for is almost here. The beginning of the NFL season. And with that, comes the beginning of our 2010 Free NFL Picks. What more can you ask for?

The pick is in for Thursday night, with Sunday's picks to follow in the coming days.

Minnesota Vikings +6 over the New Orleans Saints

We don't mind that Brett Favre is playing on a bum ankle, or that the Saints pummeled him in the NFC Championship Game last season, or that he is without his favorite target from last year. In fact, we love it. A line that should be closer to a push than a touchdown has been seriously inflated up to +6 for Minnesota, and that could grow still. Folks, this is going to be a close game, and we're not ruling out a Vikings win.

People forget that this is mostly the same Vikings team that woulda shoulda coulda beat the Saints the last time around. It's a very talented squad that isn't even getting the respect they deserve within their own division--that they won in 2009! The bottom line is, we like this spread a lot to open up the season.

As much as we're sure you enjoyed our annual quasi-hiatus over the summer, we are back in full force. After Thursday, a full weekend of NCAA Football and the NFL will follow. For weeks. So sit back and enjoy it, and we'll try to make you a little money while you do.

Sunday, February 7, 2010

Super Bowl XLIV (44) Prop Bet: Historical Colts


We're hours away from the Super Bowl, and all of our Super Bowl coverage can be found on the right or by clicking here.

But we aren't done yet.

Although the following bets will require you to lay some chalk, we like three of these Colts historical bets (as compared to their last Super Bowl appearance in Super Bowl XLI) to exceed their last Super Bowl (Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark) and one not to (Joseph Addai).

Super Bowl XLIV – HISTORICAL MATCHUP - Total Passing Yards,
which will be higher?
Player must start game for wagers to have action.
Peyton Manning Super Bowl XLIV
Peyton Manning Super Bowl XLI (247 Passing Yards)
Super Bowl XLIV – HISTORICAL MATCHUP - Total Rushing Yards,
which will be higher?
Player must play in game for wagers to have action.
Joseph Addai Super Bowl XLIV
Joseph Addai Super Bowl XLI (77 Rushing Yards)
Super Bowl XLIV – HISTORICAL MATCHUP - Total Receiving Yards,
which will be higher?
Player must play in game for wagers to have action.
Reggie Wayne Super Bowl XLIV
Reggie Wayne Super Bowl XLI (61 Receiving Yards)
Super Bowl XLIV – HISTORICAL MATCHUP - Total Receiving Yards,
which will be higher?
Player must play in game for wagers to have action.
Dallas Clark Super Bowl XLIV
Dallas Clark Super Bowl XLI (36 Receiving Yards)

Our feeling in regards to taking bets with a lot of juice is that if you find multiple bets that look good, it will be worth your while in the end. So, at least as far as individual numbers are concerned, this Super Bowl against the Saints will be better for the Colts bettors.

Super Bowl XLIV (44) Prop Bet: Hurricane Katrina


Super Bowl XLIV - How Many Times will CBS announcers
fully mention Hurricane Katrina during the game?
Wager is on the number of times announcers specifically say - Hurricane Katrina - during the Game (from kick off until final whistle). Max $50 no exceptions.
Over 2 1/2 (-300)
Under (+240)

Leading up to the Super Bowl, we'll be taking a look at various proposition bets for the 2010 Super Bowl, Super Bowl 44, Super Bowl XLIV, The Big Game, or whatever it's called these days.

Hurricane Katrina was a tragic event that has re-shaped New Orleans, and now it could re-shape the way some Super Bowl prop bettors distribute their money. Those who read this will prevent it from being tragic yet again.

The over/under for full mentions of Hurricane Katrina during the Super Bowl is set at 2 1/2. With the Saints reaching the pinnacle of their sport, it's easy to see why the storm would get more mentions than that. However, the sticking point for us is that they have to be full mentions - Hurricane Katrina rather than just the shortened Katrina.

With all the mentions that the Hurricane has received during the last few years, and even the last two weeks, it's widely accepted to just refer to it as Katrina.

And that technicality is the reason we are going with UNDER 2 1/2 mentions of Hurricane Katrina. And at +240, this is one of the best bets on the board.

Super Bowl XLIV (44) Prop Bet: Archie Manning


Super Bowl XLIV - How Many Times will CBS show Archie Manning
on TV during the Game?
Wager is on the number of times Archie Manning will appear on TV during the Game (from kick off until final whistle). Live pictures only, Any Taped Pictures
or Past Video does not count towards wager. Max $50 no exceptions.
Over 4 1/2
Under

Leading up to the Super Bowl, we'll be taking a look at various proposition bets for the 2010 Super Bowl, Super Bowl 44, Super Bowl XLIV, The Big Game, or whatever it's called these days.

Not since manipulating the draft in Eli Manning's favor has Archie Manning had such an impact on a sporting event. Tonight, the prop bet "How many times will Archie Manning be shown on TV" is one of the hottest bets out there.

The over/under is set at 4 1/2, which seems high by first glance. However, considering that Archie Manning played for the Saints in addition to being Peyton Manning's father, he is the biggest non-game story of the Super Bowl, as he can be shown in reference to either team. If the Saints win, we think they'll show some shots of Archie. If the Colts win, we think they'll show some shots of Archie. So either way, he will get plenty of face time.

That's why we are going with over 4 1/2 shots of Archie Manning during the game.

Saturday, February 6, 2010

Super Bowl XLIV (44) Prop Bet Trio


You can see all of our Super Bowl prop bets to the right, but we thought we'd highlight the big three for those of you searching for them all in one place.

Before the game there's the National Anthem.

Then the Coin Toss.

And after the game, the Gatorade Shower.

Happy 2010 Super Bowl XLIV Prop Betting to all and enjoy the Colts and Saints matchup!


2010 Super Bowl XLIV (44) Pick: Colts Over Saints


We've been all over the Super Bowl prop bets, and now it's time to actually pick the winner of the 2010 Super Bowl XLIV (44). So, our Free NFL Picks are as follows:

Indianapolis Colts -6 over the New Orleans Saints

Colts/Saints UNDER 57

We mentioned earlier, the Colts are simply the better and more confident team. But our reasoning for taking the Under with two high scoring offenses is simply we think the over/under is set higher than it should be. For a big game with a lot more of the general public betting on it, the high flying offenses have been hyped past the point of reason. While the offenses are explosive, the defenses aren't entirely horrible--or they wouldn't be playing in the big game.

Don't think we have it right? Check out the Super Bowl Picks at Doc's Sports, along with info on the Super Bowl Point Spread.

Good luck and enjoy the Super Bowl!

Friday, February 5, 2010

Super Bowl XLIV (44) Prop Bet: The Gatorade Shower

Super Bowl XLIV - What Color will the Gatorade be that is dumped on the Head Coach of the Winning Super Bowl Team?
Lime Green
Yellow
Orange
Red
Blue
Clear/Water

To see the 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) Gatorade Shower Prop Bet in the game between the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers, click here.

Leading up to the Super Bowl, we'll be taking a look at various proposition bets for the 2010 Super Bowl, Super Bowl 44, Super Bowl XLIV, The Big Game, or whatever you want to call it. You can check out previous prop bet analysis on the upper right sidebar.

We've talked about the coin toss and the National Anthem, two prop bets that take place before all the action. Now it's time to talk about something that takes place after all, or at least most, of the action--the Gatorade shower!

Bodog has plenty of choices for you in the prop bet: What Color will the Gatorade be that is dumped on the Head Coach of the Winning Super Bowl Team?

There's lime green, yellow, orange, red, blue, clear/water, and whatever else they add or delete from this list after reading our analysis.

We might not be able to tell you exactly which color Gatorade will be dumped on the winning coach, but we can certainly narrow it down.

Go ahead and cross off orange, red, blue, and lime green from that list right away. The only way that any of those colors will make an appearance is if Bodog claims that the yellow Gatorade is really lime green, just to screw with everyone.

That leaves us with yellow (5/6 odds) and clear/water (37/20). Your safe bet here is to go with yellow, though you'll lose some juice (get it?). If you're feeling a little risky, though, clear/water is as safe a risk you can make at 37/20 odds this Super Bowl.

Let's take a look at the recent history of The Gatorade Shower.

Back in Super Bowl XL in 2006, Bill Cowher took a bath in the clear liquid.


In 2007, in a rainy Super Bowl XLI, Colts coach Tony Dungy found himself under a rain cloud shaped like a Gatorade bucket.


In Super Bowl XLII, Giants coach Tom Coughlin received the perfect reward for his team's upset win.

And last year, Mike Tomlin won one for the other thumb... and then got yellow Gatorade all over it.


So, you can go with the recent pick of yellow, or stick with the prior Super Bowl's clear/water.

If Gatorade Showers aren't your cup of... Gatorade. Try the Super Bowl Odds and Super Bowl Betting over at Doc's Sports.

Either way, this is a good prop bet for those looking to whet their appetite for wet coaches.

Stock Lemon's Media Day Recap


As we mentioned earlier this week, we attended our very first media day at the Super Bowl in Miami this year.

As we expected, it was a zoo.

Dwight Freeny's ankle, Hurricane Katrina and the rebuilding of New Orleans, and all of the expected storylines were touched upon. While the spectacle seemed to have somewhat less goofballs this year (maybe moving it indoors scared some off), there were still plenty of people who somehow had less business being at media day than we did.

But our main thought from our first media day experience is this: Those Super Bowl patches look huge on the uniforms. But more importantly: The Colts are going to win the Super Bowl. There is an air of confidence around that team with a focus and energy you can just feel. Nothing against the Saints, but they are in "happy to be here" mode, and while the Cardinals almost won it all last year under those same circumstances, we just don't expect the Saints to outduel the mastermind that is Peyton Manning.

Some more Super Bowl XLIV (44) coverage is ahead as we are just days away from the big game, so stay tuned for more fun prop bets and predictions! If you don't get them from us, be sure to check out Doc's Sports Super Bowl Prop Bets and Super Bowl Odds.

By the way, if you look close enough in that photo above you can almost kind of make out one of our arms. We are famous!

Sunday, January 31, 2010

Super Bowl XLIV (44) Prop Bet: The Coin Toss

To see our coin toss prop bet analysis for the 2011 Super Bowl XLIV (45) between the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers, click here.

Over the next week and a half leading up to the Super Bowl, we'll be taking a look at various proposition bets for the 2010 Super Bowl, Super Bowl 44, Super Bowl XLIV, The Big Game, or whatever it's called these days.

The Super Bowl is growing nearer and nearer each day, and many bettors are torn on which side they won't to throw money on. Not between the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints, but between heads or tails--the two sides of the Super Bowl coin toss.

As we stated last year, the coin toss is always a popular prop bet because, well... it just is. It's a guy flipping a quarter into the air, only much more intense because millions of quarters are wagered on that one special coin. For whatever reason, it's one of the most wagered Super Bowl prop bet despite the fact that the wager is decided before kickoff.

For casual fans or those just watching the game for the Super Bowl commercials, it's nice to bet on the coin toss since it requires no knowledge whatsoever of the actual game being played and is completely random.We'll do our best to at least give you a little knowledge about the history of the Super Bowl coin toss.

People try to read a lot into the coin flip. Some common degenerate questions include: Does one side of the coin weigh more than the other? Does tails really never fail? Does the coin bounce differently off of FieldTurf as opposed to natural grass? Am I really wagering on the coin flip? We won’t be able to answer all of these question, but here are some fun facts to help you through betting on the coin flip:

  • Heading into Super Bowl XLIII (43) last year, the Super Bowl coin toss had landed on heads 21 times and tails 21 times, astonishingly splitting the first 42 Super Bowls. Last year, only because the coin couldn’t land on its side, tails was the winner, giving the tails side of the coin a 22-21 all-time advantage. So, yes, tails never fails—except for nearly half of the time.
  • The team to win the coin toss has a losing record in the Super Bowl of 20-23, but these "winners" have had even less success recently. In the last 13 tosses, the winner of the toss was the loser of the game in 10 of those contests, including five losses in the last six (the Giants of two years ago bucked this trend when they knocked off the unbeaten Patriots).
  • Amazingly enough (and of very little meaning) is the fact that the NFC has won the last 12 tosses and is 29-14 all-time in calling the correct side of the coin. So you can either bet against the remarkable trend or ride it until it dies. Might as well enjoy the ride.

So, the bottom line is, when betting on Super Bowl props, the coin flip is always a toss-up.

Our recommendation? Guess. Blindly. This is a prop just for fun to get the action going on what is hopefully a long and enjoyable (and profitable) Sunday. Don't take the coin flip too seriously if you plan on flipping your wagers into some serious coin.

Stay tuned for more in-depth analysis of some fun and some crazy Super Bowl 44 prop bets.

Thursday, January 28, 2010

Super Bowl XLIV Prop Bet: The National Anthem


To see the 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) National Anthem Prop Bet, featuring Christina Aguilera in the game between the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers, click here.

Over the next week and a half leading up to the Super Bowl, we'll be taking a look at various proposition bets for the 2010 Super Bowl, Super Bowl 44, Super Bowl XLIV, The Big Game, or whatever it's called these days.

Before the Colts and Saints execute their keys to the game, America (and several other countries outside of the United States) will be paying close attention to some keys prior to kickoff -- the keys sung by Carrie Underwood during the National Anthem, just as we did last year when we were quite possibly single handedly responsible for shifting the opening line. If you recall, the long winded Jennifer Hudson's anthem line was set at 1 minute and 54 seconds before we got some research in (aka watched YouTube videos of previous anthems. We found that all three of her available anthems on YouTube were at least four seconds longer than that mark, and strongly recommended the over. Then, the line moved to 2 minutes and 1 second overnight. The result? It took Hudson 2 minutes and 13 seconds.

This year, with yet another American Idol winner taking the opening tune, the results should be much different. Carrie Underwood could sing the shortest Anthem since Billy Joel did it in 1 minute and 30 seconds back in 2007 (in a Super Bowl broadcast by CBS... in Miami... featuring the Colts).

So, let's get down to business this year. According to Bodog, the 2010 Super Bowl XLIV National Anthem prop bet line, as sung by Carrie Underwood:

Super Bowl XLIV - How long will it take Carrie Underwood to sing the National Anthem?
Clock starts as soon as Underwood sings first Note and Stops when she sings her last note.
Super Bowl XLIV - How long will it takeCarrie Underwood to sing the National Anthem?
Clock starts as soon as Underwood sings first Note and Stops when she sings her last note.
Over 1 Minute and 42 Seconds
Under 1 Minute and 42 Seconds

The 1 minute and 42 second line is way below Jennifer Hudson's, and well above Billy Joel's. So where does Carrie Underwood stand and what can Underwood's National Anthem history tell us about her upcoming performance prior to the Super Bowl? Let's get to the tape.


Underwood's first anthem comes to us from June 6, 2005 before Game 4 of the NBA Finals between the Detroit Pistons and San Antonio Spurs in Detroit. As you can see, she starts at roughly :15 into the video, ending at 1:58 (remember it counts through the completion of the final note). Anyone who has ever failed math before knows that her total time is 1 minute 43 seconds, one second above the Super Bowl anthem prop. But don't be so quick to jump on that over. Let's take a peak at a few more videos first.


This next video comes to us courtesy of the NFC Championship game on January 26, 2006, when Underwood was in Seattle to sing the National Anthem prior to the Seattle Seahawks date with the Carolina Panthers. This one begins at :25 and ends at 2:05, totaling 1 minute 40 seconds. This is, of course, below the current line for the Super Bowl by two seconds, and is doubly significant because it is the only anthem on file of her at a football game. That under is suddenly looking appealing, if only we could see a couple more videos...


Next up is July 11, 2006 at the MLB All-Star Game in Pittsburgh. This video serves both as research and a further reminder of how nice it will be not to listen to Joe Buck on Super Sunday. The singing starts at :32 in and goes until 2:10, giving us a total anthem time of 1 minute 38 seconds, now four (FOUR!) seconds below the line. We're starting to see a pattern here as she continues to progress. How about one more video to cement our bet?


Our last piece of video evidence comes from the 2007 World Series on October 27, 2007. Underwood sang the Star Spangled Banner prior to Game 3 of the series between the Boston Red Sox and Colorado Rockies, with this the first game in Colorado. Take a listen to this one and not only will you be rewarded with more Joe Buck at the end, but you'll hear that she starts at :23 and ends 1:59. She trails off a little and it is difficult to spot the exact end, but we think 1:59 is a fairly safe judgement. This would mean that her most recent anthem went 1 minute and 36 seconds, a full six seconds below her prop bet line of 1 minute 42 seconds. That's about all the information we need.

Let's review:
June 6, 2005: 1 minute, 43 seconds (one second OVER her Super Bowl line)
January 22, 2006: 1 minute, 40 seconds (two seconds UNDER)
July 11, 2006: 1 minute, 38 seconds (four seconds UNDER)
October 27, 2007: 1 minute, 36 seconds (six seconds UNDER)

With each passing anthem, Carrie Underwood has taken less and less time to sing the Star Spangled Banner. We understand that it is the Super Bowl and some singers milk the opportunity for all it's worth (see Hudson, Jennifer from last year), but we don't see Underwood going that route. It isn't like she hasn't sang the National Anthem at a big event before, already hitting both of the other major sports' championships, an all-star game and the NFL's next best thing to the Super Bowl. For us, the above videos provide all the evidence we need to make a sizeable bet on the UNDER 1 minute and 42 seconds, at just -125 juice.

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

NBA Super Bowl XLIV: Pacers vs. Hornets


It's 2010 Super Bowl XLIV (44) mania, and every angle of every corner of every angle will be covered in the next couple of weeks by the real media. So what can we do in the blogging community? Make up more angles!

How about this: What if we somehow tried to predict who would win the Super Bowl based on the NBA counterparts in their respective cities? Makes perfect sense, doesn't it?

If Super Bowl XLIV were to be played by the NBA versions of the NFL teams participating in Miami, the Indianapolis Colts would be substituted for the Indiana Pacers while the New Orleans Saints would be replaced by the New Orleans Hornets. Still with us?

While the Hornets are probably (definitely) the better basketball team, how would the teams fare on the football field? Let's take a look at some of the key players on the rosters and match them up with their counterparts.

Indianapolis Colts/Pacers

QB Peyton Manning = SF Danny Granger
The unquestioned centerpiece of the team, providing a mostly offensive attack. Good enough to build a team around with the potential to be great.

RB Joseph Addai = PG T.J. Ford
Players who showed great promise and have since slowed down. The Pacers can't wait to unload T.J. Ford, and you might be surprised at how much the Colts may share that sentiment about Addai.

WR Reggie Wayne = SF Mike Dunleavy
Good players and often underappreciated. Dunleavy has had injury issues so it is difficult to really compare, but when these two are healthy they must be accounted for. Neither will mind carrying the load or playing second fiddle and helping teammates.

TE Dallas Clark = PF Troy Murphy
Tough competitors who put up way better numbers than you would expect them to. Murphy has been one of the more underrated forwards in the game for years while Dallas Clark is just now getting the attention he deserves after the departure of Marvin Harrison.

DE Dwight Freeney = C Roy Hibbert
This one is a stretch, considering Hibbert is still growing and Freeney is a veteran leader at this point--but Hibbert has that potential. He showed in college how much he could impact the game, and opposing offenses know that that's all Freeney does.

LB Gary Brackett = C Jeff Foster
Nothing flashy out of either player, but mainstays in their team's lineup for a reason. Consistently solid players.

New Orleans Saints/Hornets

QB Drew Brees = PG Chris Paul
Okay, this one is too easy. The similarities between quarterbacks and point guards are clear, but you'd be hard pressed to find a better match than this in the league. Both Brees and Paul are fundamentally sound but at the same time flashy, and their play dictates largely, if not nearly entirely, the success of their respective clubs.

FS Darren Sharper = C Emeka Okafor
The two big off-season acquisitions in Nawlins have paid dividends this season, both on the defensive side of the ball. While Emeka might actually be a defensive downgrade from Tyson Chandler (who they traded away to acquire Okafor), the presence of the former Husky can't be denied. Obviously, neither can that of Pro Bowl safety Sharper, acquired through Free Agency from the Vikings.

WR Marques Colston = PG Darren Collison
Both young players taken relatively late in the draft and expected to do little, who have burst onto the scene and played huge roles in their team's success.

RB Reggie Bush = SF Peja Stojakovic
Considering the achievements both have been able to garner in the past, you expect more from them. Bush was dominant at USC, and while he's having a good playoffs, it's impossible to say he's lived up to his hype. Just a couple of years ago Peja was carrying the Hornets to one of the top seeds in the Western Conference Playoffs. Now, his play has dropped off along with his teams. Both teams need these guys to perform to be really great.

LB Jonathan Vilma = PF David West
Remarkably great fits on their teams, as West goes together beautifully with Chris Paul and Vilma is the exact perfect fit for the Saints defense.

TE Jeremy Shockey = SF Jamesy Posey
Overpaid, overrated recent free agent acquisitions who show just enough productivity to keep you hoping that they will live up to their billing. Still, it's hard to argue with them, as they have both been winners throughout their careers.

So there's that. Amidst all the rehashed stories of Super Bowl week(s), this is our attempt to create a new story. At least we tried.

And for the record, we'll take the Hornets.