2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) Prop Bet: The Brett Favre Mentions

Leading up to the 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) between the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers, we'll be taking a look at Super Bowl proposition betting, or more specifically, the fun or funny Super Bowl 45 (XLV) prop bets that you hear so much about. That includes props on the Super Bowl coin toss, Super Bowl halftime show, Super Bowl National Anthem, Super Bowl postgame Gatorade Shower dump and much more. Follow along on the Super Bowl sidebar to the right!

Sure, Aaron Rodgers has led the Packers to a Super Bowl. Sure, he's won as many playoff games this season as his predecessor Brett Favre won in his last 10 years with the Packers. But to many--be it in the media or at the water cooler--Rodgers is still in the shadow of the man who has quarterbacked the division rival Minnesota Vikings for the past two seasons. And that brings us to our next 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) prop bet.

While Aaron Rodgers and surely many Packer fans have probably had just about enough of the constant mentions of Brett Favre on various broadcasts and in print, we're more than happy to watch members of the media babble on about Favre when talking about Rodgers--because we know two media members who won't be doing that.

Check out the Super Bowl prop that has been created as a result of the Favre/Rodgers saga:

How Many Times will FOX mention “Brett Favre” on TV during the Game?
Wager is on the number of times“Brett Favre”will be mentioned on TV during the Game (from kick off until final whistle). Live commentary only, Any Taped or Past Video does not count towards wager, must say“Brett Favre”exactly.
Over 2.5 (-140)

UNDER 2.5 (EVEN)

To many in the public who have been hearing Favre/Rodgers comparisons ad nauseam for the past three seasons (and especially for the casual football fans attracted to fun Super Bowl proposition betting), this looks like a steal. How could the FOX broadcast not mention Brett Favre at least three times during the Super Bowl?

Well, we can assure you, they won't. The broadcast team of Joe Buck and Troy Aikman have literally called the last five Packer games, and they've had plenty opportunity to talk about Favre over that time. And while they've mentioned No. 4 every so often, they aren't the ones in the media beating us to death on this topic.

During today's 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) Media Day, and throughout the rest of the week, you'll hear all about Favre as you have up to this point. But come game day, you can count on Buck and Aikman focusing on the players on the field and recognizing that this is Aaron Rodger's show in a game between the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers.

And, of course, the loophole that requires the announcers to use the entire name "Brett Favre" doesn't hurt. Everybody knows who the Packers previous quarterback was, which allows for vague mentions about "replacing a legend" or living up to "that other guy."

So while the pre-game Super Bowl hype, including the pre-game shows leading right up to the game on Sunday, and post-game might throw around F(avre)-bombs like nothing, we're predicting that that won't be the case during the actual game, as the prop specifies (kickoff to the final whistle). We predict one full Brett Favre mention--if that--but certainly no more, and certainly not three (more than 2 1/2).

Can We Blame the Snow?

Well, that was a crazy week.

Crazy because the roof of the Metrodome completely caved in. Crazy because our fourth and final Free NFL Picks was delayed to Monday night in one of the more bizarre scenarios ever played out in the NFL. Crazy because, for the second time this season, we suffered a losing week.

So, like every week, let us start our post off with excuses. Who could have predicted the wild circumstances to the Giants/Vikings game when we made our pick on Saturday? Who could have predicted (even though many did) that Brett Favre actually wouldn't play, even with an extra day of rest? The answer, unfortunately, is not us.

Our Free NFL Picks went 1-3, plummeting them down to 60% on the season. We wanted to stop the presses on our final pick, the Vikings to win Monday night, but had already made it and felt it unfair to retract it from our blog. We could have hedged it, but where is the fun in that.

So we stuck with it, and predictably, we lost. So we'll blame the snow, chalk this up as a fluke week (when we've only had one other losing week, we have the privilege of doing so) and move forward to try and stay about that 60% gambling Mendoza line.

The NFL is a grind, whether you play, coach, or sit on your ass and watch from your coach while wagering on the sport. Sometimes, it is tough sledding. Sometimes, it's okay to blame the snow.

We just can't let it happen again, and we're determined not to let it.

A Small Free NFL Picks Card (62%)

Our Free NFL Picks have been pretty solid lately, unfortunately we just haven't had a large volume of plays. And unfortunately, that's not changing this week. Quality over quantity, or something.

Vikings -2 over Redskins

Seahawks +2 over Chiefs

Texans -6 over Titans

Enjoy your three-pick Sunday, but be on the lookout for an added play or two.

On This Edition of The Lemmy Channel...

As we mentioned earlier this week, The Lemmy Channel is back, but with a few changes. First off, for those of you that couldn't care less about the Wisconsin sports teams that we talk about to appeal to The Bucky Channel's audience, we won't be providing much more than a link to our analysis. Secondly, rather than sending the "episodes" to The Bucky Channel via e-mail, we are posting them to their site ourselves as a part of their expanded 2.0 staff.

So, if you want to find out what a naked picture of Don Draper's new fiance has to do with this week's Lemmy Channel (not much), or you want to read a little analysis on the Mad Men in the Packers/Vikings game on Sunday night, check out The Lemmy Channel over at The Bucky Channel.

A Hot Start For Our Free NFL Picks

So far, so good for our Free NFL Picks. Granted its only one game, but a 1-0 start is much better than the alternative.

The Vikings gave us our hot start by squeaking out a cover against the Saints, losing by five to keep a +6 spread in tact.

We'll have a ton more picks on Sunday and really kick of this NFL season in style. But for now, we'll enjoy our 100% Free NFL Picks.

Free NFL Picks

Thursday: 1-0... 100%

Our Free NFL Picks Are Back!

Pardon us while we openly slobber all over our screen--and not for the image above.

The day we've all been waiting for is almost here. The beginning of the NFL season. And with that, comes the beginning of our 2010 Free NFL Picks. What more can you ask for?

The pick is in for Thursday night, with Sunday's picks to follow in the coming days.

Minnesota Vikings +6 over the New Orleans Saints

We don't mind that Brett Favre is playing on a bum ankle, or that the Saints pummeled him in the NFC Championship Game last season, or that he is without his favorite target from last year. In fact, we love it. A line that should be closer to a push than a touchdown has been seriously inflated up to +6 for Minnesota, and that could grow still. Folks, this is going to be a close game, and we're not ruling out a Vikings win.

People forget that this is mostly the same Vikings team that woulda shoulda coulda beat the Saints the last time around. It's a very talented squad that isn't even getting the respect they deserve within their own division--that they won in 2009! The bottom line is, we like this spread a lot to open up the season.

As much as we're sure you enjoyed our annual quasi-hiatus over the summer, we are back in full force. After Thursday, a full weekend of NCAA Football and the NFL will follow. For weeks. So sit back and enjoy it, and we'll try to make you a little money while you do.

Are You Ready for Some Football?

The slow summer that we've all gotten used to here at Stock Lemon is about to come to an abrupt end. After months without our money sport--football--both the NFL and NCAA Football schedules are about to get underway. With them, our successful Free NFL Picks and Free NCAA Football Picks come as well.

After several text messages to his Viking teammates, and others to resident Stock Lemon hottie Jenn Sterger (we have never been more jealous of Lemmy than right now), Brett Favre is back, which means football is right around the corner. And our Free Picks systems are never a Croc.

So come back later this week for our first Free NCAA Football Picks with a full slate of games Thursday and Saturday, and then again for Thursday/Sunday/Monday's NFL action. And then again for Week 2, and again, and again, and again.

The sun has set on the annual quiet Stock Lemon summer, so we'll see you early and often in September.

Uganda Gets Jets-Vikings Super Bowl

We're talking, of course, about the championship merchandise that is printed in big games. The NFL needs to be ready for any outcome in the championship game, so they print t-shirts and hats for both teams so that they can immediately be worn by the winning players following the game.

The losing merchandise? It gets sent to a relief organization, World Vision, where it is distributed to countries such as Uganda, Niger and Sierra Leone.

Per a great New York Times article from three years ago, the same will happen with the loser of the Super Bowl between the Colts and Saints:

The Super Bowl will end about 10 p.m. Sunday, and by 10:01 every player on the winning team — along with coaches, executives, family members and ball boys — could be outfitted in colorful T-shirts and caps proclaiming them champions.

The other set of championship gear — the 288 T-shirts and caps made for the team that did not win — will be hidden behind a locked door at (Sun Life) Stadium. By order of the National Football League, those items are never to appear on television or on eBay. They are never even to be seen on American soil.

They will be shipped Monday morning to a warehouse in Sewickley, Pa., near Pittsburgh, where they will become property of World Vision, a relief organization that will package the clothing in wooden boxes and send it to a developing nation, usually in Africa.

The MLB actually destroys the merchandise, while the NBA sends losing Finals gear to a charity overseas. The NFL goes the World Vision route, which causes for confusion in Niger--should any of the citizens know anything about American Football.

Former Packer QB Makes Big Play to Lead NFC Team To Super Bowl

Just as everyone expected, a former Packer QB made a decisive play to lead his team to a Super Bowl. We're talking, of course, of Mark Brunell (pictured bottom left), whose snap on Garrett Hartley's game winning field goal helped the Saints to Super Bowl XLIV.

What? Were you expecting somebody else?

The Vikings, meanwhile, can now officially add a word into their dictionary that Packer fans have know for years.

Favred

-verb

1. To have one's hopes raised to ridiculously joyous levels so as to put a person in a state of vulnerability, causing blindness to the inevitability of complete and utter failure.

And with that final Brett Favre choke, the Super Bowl -- and thus, the Super Bowl 44 coverage here at Stock Lemon -- is set. The Indianapolis Colts and the New Orleans saints will go head-to-head in Miami.

Be sure to follow Stock Lemon throughout the next two weeks with unprecedented Super Bowl XLIV proposition bet coverage.

2010 Super Bowl 44 Proposition Bets Coming Soon!

It's Conference Championship weekend, which means one thing-- Super Bowl prop season is almost here. Those of you who followed our highly publicized Super Bowl prop coverage last year are in for a treat this year, as we're pulling out all the stops to make this our best Super Bowl prop coverage yet!

Before we can get to all the Super Bowl XLIV fun and excitement, however, we need to figure out the teams who will be playing in the Super Bowl. Here are our Free NFL Playoff Picks for the AFC and NFC Championship games.

Jets +8 over the Colts

Vikings +4 over the Saints

It's been a whacky ride so far this postseason, and we expect that to continue. We're not saying that the Super Bowl will be between the Jets and Vikings... just that they will cover.

Good luck and we will see you back here for extensive prop betting on Super Bowl 44!

Sunday Night Free NFL Pick!

It's been a little slow pick wise around here, which should turnaround as we really get into the NBA and NCAA Basketball. Don't worry, though, we aren't done with the NFL. Despite no picks earlier today, we do have a play on the Sunday nighter.

Vikings -3 1/2 over the Cardinals

Brett Favre is playing like he should have been with the Packers had he not been busy plotting out a plan to burn every bridge in Wisconsin. We'll ride the Vikings for the rest of Favre's revenge tour.

Good luck!

Bet on Brett: Brett Favre vs. Aaron Rodgers Props

What's that? Brett Favre is returning to Lambeau Field to play the Packers for the first time as a Viking? Why haven't we heard anything about this yet?

Ok, so we have. But we haven't posted any proposition bets on it yet! So, without further delay, here are our picks in the Favre Bowl II matchup between Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre. Winners are in bold.

Who will have more completions Week 8 of the 2009 NFL Regular Season?

Both players must start game for wagers to have action.

Brett Favre (MIN)	+1½ (+105)
Aaron Rodgers (GB)	-1½ (-135)

Brett Favre – Total Passing Yards Week 8 vs the Green Bay Packers

Player must start game for wagers to have action.

Over	250½ (EVEN)o (-130)u
Under		-

Brett Favre – Total TD Passes Week 8 vs the Green Bay Packers

Player must start game for wagers to have action.

Over	1½ (-150)o (+120)u
Under		-

Brett Favre – Total Interceptions Week 8 vs the Green Bay Packers

Player must start game for wagers to have action.

Over	1 (+135)o (-165)u
Under		-

What will be the result of Brett Favre’s first pass at Lambeau Field Week 8 vs the Green Bay Packers?

Player must play in game for wagers to have action.

Complete	2/5
Incomplete	19/10
Interception	25/2

What will be the result of Brett Favre’s last pass at Lambeau Field Week 8 vs the Green Bay Packers?

Player must play in game for wagers to have action.

Complete	1/2
Incomplete	31/20
Interception	10/1

Aaron Rodgers – Total Passing Yards Week 8 vs the Minnesota Vikings

Player must start game for wagers to have action.

Over	270½ (-125)o (-105)u
Under		-

Aaron Rodgers – Total Sacks Week 8 vs the Minnesota Vikings

Player must start game for wagers to have action.

Over	3½ (-120)o (-110)u
Under		-

Who will have more completions Week 8 of the 2009 NFL Regular Season?

Both players must start game for wagers to have action.

Brett Favre (GB)	+1½ (-115)
Aaron Rodgers (GB)	-1½ (-115)

Our biggest surprise of the bunch is taking Favre 10/1 to throw a pick as his last pass at Lambeau. Not so surprising, though, when you consider that his last pass at Lambeau to date was a costly pick to ruin his team's chances at a Super Bowl.

Good luck!

Free NFL Picks Pick Up Steam

We had mixed results in week one of the NFL season, eventually finishing a record nine-game card with a losing 4-5 record.

The volume of picks will likely be reduced as we become even more selective with a usually picky Free NFL Picks system, so don't expect to have such a crazy Sunday every week.

After an 0-1 start on Thursay, our Free NFL Picks wound up 4-4 on Sunday for an unspectacular 4-5 week.

The Packers 21-15 win over the Bears on Sunday night salvaged our day with a -3 1/2 spread. Prior to the nightcap, the Vikings crushed the -4 1/2 spread and the Browns with a 34-20 win; the Cowboys covered a -6 spread in a 34-21 victory over the Buccaneeers; and the Broncos, who already had a +4 1/2 cover secured, went on to a miraculous 12-7 triumph over the Bengals.

In all, we had a good end to a shaky weekend, but we look forward to a winning week two.

Week One Free NFL Picks: Part Two

Maybe it's because it's week one and we're playing some games that we wouldn't if we weren't so jacked up about the start of another NFL season, or maybe these games are just as easy as they appear. Either way, we're just following our Free NFL Picks system that went 58% last year and are hoping for better results this year.

In addition to the four picks in Part One and one on Thursday, we have four more picks--nine total! In all, we're playing eight of the 16 games this week, a Stock Lemon record. We'll find out if that's a good or bad thing on Sunday.

Vikings -4 1/2 over the Browns

Colts -7 over the Jaguars

Cowboys -6 over the Buccaneers

Packers -3 1/2 over the Bears

Good luck and enjoy the first Sunday of the NFL season!

Betting on Brett Favre's Vikings

Boy, John David Booty got old.

Wait a minute, that's Brett Favre!

Bettors are in a frenzy today as the longtime Packer and one time Jet wore purple for the first time in his career, going against everything that anybody has ever known about football.

So, how can bettors profit off of this move? The obvious answer is that they can't. Those who wanted to bet on the Vikings to win the NFC North or the Super Bowl should have done so while they were debating between Sage Rosenfels and Tarvaris Jackson--knowing the Favre would eventually decide to retire from retirement. (Those same people could also make some coin by re-selling season tickets).

The inevitability of this move made it easy for bettors to get a good price on the Vikings, but for those who didn't make like a gunslinger and pound the Favre-less Vikings, you're out of luck as far as bargain bin prices.

There is good news, though. You can still bet a different team to win the NFC North, and at better odds! We're of the thinking that the Bears or Packers will win this division either way, and in our case, we're glad we held off until Favre signed to make our pick.

Here's a look at the current odds to win the North:

Vikings 31/20

Bears 17/10

Packers 9/4

Lions 15/1

Not bad, but if you're going to play this one, hold off a bit. Wait for the public to hit the Vikings hard in the next few days and you'll get an even better price.

The Super Bowl odds for the NFC North teams look like this:

Vikings 12/1

Bears 15/1

Packers 24/1

Lions 100/1

We wouldn't recommend any of these, as we don't think the NFC North will represent the conference in the Super Bowl, but still. These numbers are just beginning to tempt us. As we said, the coming days should give us even more to think about as the odds on the Vikings to win it all continue to move based on public betting.

To sum it up, if you're looking at betting on Favre's Vikings, take a pass. Unless, of course, you're banking on him retiring again.

Brett Favre's First Practice With Vikings

Are we there yet?

As you can see, in addition to picking sports games and stocks, we're also in the business of predicting the future.

This is Brett Favre on the first day of Vikings Training Camp, in uniform and ready to begin his 2009 revenge tour against the Packers.

Favre appeared on Joe Buck's new HBO show tonight, Joe Buck Live, to publicly confirm his interest in playing for the Vikings this upcoming season after flaming out with the Jets last year.

Okay, okay. So that's a picture of John David Booty. But it won't be long before that's Favre occupying his purple No. 4 jersey (or red for practices). If you can find a prop bet asking whether or not he'll return to the NFL this season, consider it the easiest money you'll ever make.

2009 NFL Mock Draft: Picks 21-23

As we enter the final week before the 2009 NFL Draft, we're about to put our finishing touches on our own 2009 NFL Mock Draft. 

You can check out the previous 20 picks by clicking the appropriate link in the upper right hand column of this site. 

Today, we're giving out our next three picks, which includes a couple of big playmakers. Take it away Philly. 

21. Eagles: Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia 

The best running back in the draft, and possibly one of the best players in a few years, finally gets selected with the twenty-first pick. Moreno is the second RB picked in our mock draft, but we really feel that he is the best option in the backfield. Not only that, but Moreno is really a complete back, with the ability to catch balls out of the backfield similar to the way the Eagles typically use their running backs. Philly will get a difference maker and eventually their future starting running back late in the draft, a tremendous value for pick 21. With the moves Philly has already made (and some other trades they might make around draft day), they could be going deep into the playoffs yet again in 2009. 

22. Vikings: Percy Harvin, WR, Florida

Sticking with the SEC, the Vikings search for a true No. 1 wideout continues with the selection of Harvin. Harvin played a key role on the National Champion Gators team, but we're not sure if his skills will translate in the NFL. In Minnesota, he might be hindered by the lack of a real quarterback, but he certainly has the athleticism and skill set capable of being a breakout receiver someday. 

23. Patriots: Clay Matthews, LB, USC

The Patriots will be looking linebacker here, and Matthews is a dependable defender who should fit in nicely in New England. He's a safer pick than most in this draft, but he doesn't have as much potential as some others in our view. Matthews will mark the third USC linebacker chosen in the first 23 picks, and time will tell where he stacks up against his higher-picked college teammates. 

We'll keep on mocking through the week leading up to the NFL Draft, so be sure to check back as we round out the first 32 picks. 

That's More Like It

If you only check our picks on Saturday, you probably had a bad week.

If you only check our picks on Sunday, you probably had a good week.

If you checked our picks on both Saturday and Sunday, you probably fall somewhere in between.

Lastly, if don't check our picks at all, what are you thinking? And how did you get here?

Our Free NFL Picks went 0-2 on Saturday but rebounded nicely with a 2-0 day on Sunday. The Eagles beat the Vikings, 26-14, while the Ravens took care of the Dolphins, 27-9. Both teams covered -3 spread on the road in the process.

So, all in all, our Wildcard picks ended up at an unimpressive 2-2. Be sure to check back next weekend for more NFL playoff action, and of course, check us out in between weekends as well.

More NFL Playoff Picks

Well, that didn't go as planned. The games yesterday could have gone either way, and obviously they didn't end up going our way.

The good news is that there are two more Wild Card games to bet on, and although we didn't mean for this to happen, we're once again on the road favorites.

Ravens -3 over the Dolphins

Defenses should tell the story tomorrow. Ray Lewis and the tough Ravens D have shut down Chad Pennington in Miami before, and although the teams were both much different in Week 7, the results should be the same.

Eagles -3 over the Vikings

The same can be said with the red hot Eagles storming into Minnesota. Brian Dawkins and Philly's D have been playing great as of late, and we don't expect that to change in the playoffs.

Good luck!

Free NFL Picks End Regular Season At 59%

And with that, ladies and gentlemen, another NFL regular season is in the books. Here at Stock Lemon, it means another successful season, though we certainly would have liked to play more games--and would have if we knew our Free NFL Picks would finish at just 59%.

The main reason for the sucess of our Free NFL Picks is that we are so picky with them. Rather than play nearly all of the games each week as we're routinely tempted to do, we stick to our computer system in hopes that we'll finish in the high 60's or low 70's for winning percentage.

Obviously, that didn't happen, and while 59% is respectable, it's definitely lower than we hoped. The good news for us: there is plenty of playoff football ahead, which means plenty more opportunities to improve on that mark.

On the bright side, we ended the regular season with a 3-1 day, giving us our 59% with a record of 26-18-2.

Thanks to the 0-16 Lions being just a little bit less awful than expected, Detroit covered a +10 spread in a 31-21 loss to the Packers. Elsewhere, the Giants nearly won outright and easily covered a +7 spread on the road against the Vikings with a 20-19 loss, while the Dolphins went from 1-15 to 11-5, covering a +3 spread with a 24-17 win over the Jets in the process.

Thus concludes our regular season NFL fun for the year.

We will have a play for every playoff game, regardless of whether or not it is a system play or not, so check us out for all of your playoff betting needs.