Play With Caution

We have another Free NBA Pick for you to fade today: 

Rockets -4 over the Clippers

With Tracy McGrady back for the Rockets, and Chris Kaman still out for the Clip Show, this looks like a slump buster for us. Then again, probably not. 

Good luck!

Top Two NBA Off-Season Moves

Last year our Free NBA Picks went 40-20, which is an impressive 67%. We must admit, that didn't happen by accident.

Our Free NBA Picks system is a complicated formula which ranks teams offensive and defensive performances and determines which spreads have the most value. But as much attention as we pay to the NBA regular season, we pay even more to the off-season. During this time, we get a real solid idea of which teams might surprise the league (and the bookies) in the upcoming season.

That said, here are our two biggest off-season moves that could turn teams around in the NBA.

1. Bucks steal Richard Jefferson from Nets

By getting rid of a bad contract (Bobby Simmons) and arguably a bad player (Yi Jianlian) and adding one of the top small forwards in the game, the Bucks have improved drastically and should be a force to reckon with in the weak Eastern Conference. Despite the addition, they are still likely to fly under the radar due to a horrible 2007-08 season, so there should be plenty of opportunities to win some bucks on the Bucks.

2. Artest the missing piece in Houston

Houston, we have a problem-child. But we also have an extremely talented player. The Kings were nearly forced to part ways with Artest, and the Rockets made a great low-risk, high-reward investment. With the addition of Artest, the Rockets have a big three comparable to the NBA champion Boston Celtics. Artest and Tracy McGrady, along with a healthy Yao Ming, should compete for a spot in the NBA Finals.

Rockets Cover For 2-0 Day

The Rockets, today's bonus Free NBA Pick, beat the Warriors by four, just enough to cover the three-point spread.

Like the Celtics, the Rockets were rumored to be without their two biggest stars for tonight's game. Tracy McGrady sat out, but Yao Ming played and had a huge day. Still, maybe there's something to this betting on teams without their biggest stars theory.

Unlike the Celtics, this one actually was a nail-biter, as the final score of 111-107 indicates.

The win gives the Free NBA Picks another perfect day, and boosts the record to 7-1 in the last eight, which is 87.5%. It is also the fourth straight winning pick, so again, get on them while they're hot!

Bonus Free NBA Pick

We have a bonus play on the Houston Rockets -3 tonight against the Golden State Warriors. This line opened at -8 1/2 on Bodog before being pulled, and is now down to -3 because the Rockets may be without Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming tonight. Either way, the Rockets still have plenty of value at home.