Tuesday, August 9, 2011

The Tiger Woods Major Tournament Betting Strategy

The last of the 2011 golf majors takes place this weekend, and for betters feeling nostalgic about Tiger's seemingly long-gone dominance in the golf world, here's a strategy to consider.

With a mediocre performance over the weekend (and the last two years), Tiger's odds are dwindling with every tournament. You'd be hard-pressed to find him at odds of 10/1 or better at a major until he wins another one, a far cry from the days when you could actually bet on him versus the field--and get better odds on the field!

So here's a strategy: Knowing that 10/1 is the worst of the odds you'll have to lay (he's double that at 20/1 at the PGA Championship this weekend), you could feasibly bet on Tiger at the next 10 majors (covering 2 1/2 years of golf), needing only to win in the last tournament of those 10 to break even. Which means, should he win next year's PGA, you would have unsuccessfully bet on four tournaments, say for $100 each, but in the fifth tournament, assuming at worst 10/1 odds, you would profit $1,000. Our math tells us that you made yourself a $600 profit, at which point you scrap the system.

Now, maybe our logic is flawed. Maybe Tiger will show promise at a tournament and get everybody jacked up about his game again, thus boosting the odds to unfavorable amounts (and given the public's betting affection for Tiger, this is not unlikely). Maybe injuries and mental fatigue have ruined the once immortal Tiger for good. But hey, that's gambling. There are no guarantees, just opportunities.

In the end, the risk may prove greater than the reward. But vise versa is possible, too, particularly if he keeps getting 20/1 odds.

Essentially, under this strategy you are betting on Tiger Woods, perhaps the greatest golfer of all-time, to win just one major in the next 2 1/2 years. Would you take that bet?


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