Sunday, February 6, 2011

2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) Prop Bets


Leading up to the 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) between the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers, we'll be taking a look at Super Bowl proposition betting, or more specifically, the fun or funny Super Bowl 45 (XLV) prop bets that you hear so much about. That includes props on the Super Bowl coin toss, Super Bowl halftime show, Super Bowl National Anthem, Super Bowl postgame Gatorade Shower dump and much more. Follow along on the Super Bowl sidebar to the right!

It's been a heck of a two weeks here at Stock Lemon, as we've obliterated our previous records in terms of unique visitors and pageviews. You know, stuff that our readers care so deeply about.

And finally, 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) is here. For those of you who have been here throughout, checking in on our prop bet analysis on a daily basis, we thank you. For those of you who haven't, we'll, there's room for you too. And we'll do you one better. Here's a recap of all the Super Bowl prop betting action that's been happening at Stock Lemon:


We hope you've enjoyed our coverage of the 2011 Super Bowl proposition wagering scene, and hope you come back next year (or, like, way before that) when we do it all over again. But first and foremost, we hope you enjoy the game we've all been talking about for the last two weeks and come back here when it's time to check in on the Super Bowl prop bet results.

Saturday, February 5, 2011

2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) NFL Free Pick


It's finally nearing. The 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) is one day away.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 over the Green Bay Packers

OVER 45

In one of the closest Super Bowl spreads ever, we're taking the Steelers in a "when in doubt, take the points" situation... even if it is only three points. This should be an excellent game, and really there is no sense for us to even attempt to break it down in a way that hasn't been previously reported and covered at some point in the last two weeks. Our prop betting track record is solid, but we are actually quite dismal at betting the spread in the actual Super Bowl, sporting a 1-2 record in the last three Super Bowls. So take our pick for what it's worth.

In Super Bowl 45, it's only fitting that we see at least 45 points. Much has been made about the Packers offense playing on a fast surface, but much of that hype is offset by the fact that we have two great defenses competing against each other. Defenses very similar to those that combined for 73 points allowed in a 2009 shootout. People tend to bet the OVER in general and especially in big games, and yet, this line still isn't high enough.

That just about does it for our 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) coverage between the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers. Unless, of course, you've yet to check out any of our prop bets, all of which can be found on the sidebar to the right.

Friday, February 4, 2011

2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) Prop Bet: The Pittsburgh Steelers Player Props


Leading up to the 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) between the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers, we'll be taking a look at Super Bowl proposition betting, or more specifically, the fun or funny Super Bowl 45 (XLV) prop bets that you hear so much about. That includes props on the Super Bowl coin toss, Super Bowl halftime show, Super Bowl National Anthem, Super Bowl postgame Gatorade Shower dump and much more. Follow along on the Super Bowl sidebar to the right!

Yesterday, we took a look at some Green Bay Packers player prop bets that we found to have some value, and today we're doing the same with the Pittsburgh Steelers as we count down the days to Super Bowl XLV (45).

Total Rushing Yards - Rashard Mendenhall
OVER 77 1/2 (-120)

Much has been made about the Packers stout defensive line, but Rashard Mendenhall will get his. This guy is an animal and the Steelers are committed to getting him his touches. He'll take care of the rest.

Total Receiving Yards - Hines Ward
UNDER 42 1/2 (-105)

Much like Donald Driver, Hines Ward is a big name and a quality receiver, but there are simply better options for Pittsburgh at this point. He hasn't had an entirely productive playoffs and we anticipate that continuing in the Super Bowl while others fill the void.

Total Receiving Yards - Emmanuel Sanders
OVER 35 1/2 (-120)

Just as we like Jordy Nelson to step up in Driver's place, we like Emmanuel Sanders to take the touches from Hines Ward. Sanders has had a great second half of the season, and should have a performance similar to his divisional playoff game (54 yards) rather than his AFC Championship (20 yards).

Total Receptions - Emmanuel Sanders
OVER 2 1/2 (-130)

Again, we're riding the Emmanuel Sanders gravy train. It'll cost us some chalk, but 2 1/2 seems about a catch too for this prop.

Total Sacks - James Harrison
UNDER 1/2 (+120)

Once again, we're going against a big name player recording a sack (see Matthews, Clay). Harrison should be a marked man, and Aaron Rodgers mobility and pocket presence will probably keep him from Harrison's hits, both legal and not. We're banking on as much.

That does it for our Steelers player props. We'll put the finishing touches on our coverage of 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) this weekend and then, finally, enjoy the big game. We hope you have enjoyed our prop betting coverage, and we hope you enjoy it even more when it results in more spending cash.

Thursday, February 3, 2011

2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) Prop Bet: The Green Bay Packers Player Props


Leading up to the 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) between the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers, we'll be taking a look at Super Bowl proposition betting, or more specifically, the fun or funny Super Bowl 45 (XLV) prop bets that you hear so much about. That includes props on the Super Bowl coin toss, Super Bowl halftime show, Super Bowl National Anthem, Super Bowl postgame Gatorade Shower dump and much more. Follow along on the Super Bowl sidebar to the right!

We've gone through countless of fun 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) prop bets that don't exactly feature this year's participants in the game, the Steelers and Packers. That changes today as we dissect some of the valuable player props available for both teams.

First off, let's take a look at the Packers.

Total TD Passes – Aaron Rodgers
OVER 2 (+105)

We're counting on a big game from Aaron Rodgers, and think that the worst case scenario with this prop, and maybe most likely, is that it pushes at 2. To get +105 for anything over is a bonus.

Total INT - Aaron Rodgers
UNDER 1/2 (+135)


Just as we think Rodgers should be able to find the end zone, we are banking on him not finding any Steelers. Save for a boneheaded red zone pick in the NFC Championship, Rodgers has been nearly flawless during the Packers run to the Super Bowl.

Total Receiving Yards - Donald Driver
UNDER 45 1/2 (EVEN)


Donald Driver is a big name, but at this point in his career, you can argue he is the fourth best option on the team at the moment. We expect bigger days from Jordy Nelson and Mr. Inconsistent, James Jones.

Total Receptions - Jordy Nelson
OVER 3 1/2 (-120)


To prove to you that we expect big things out of Jordy Nelson, we're putting our money where our mouths are. We take a bit of juice on here, but after being held without a catch in the first playoff game, Jordy has grabbed 15 balls in the last two. Even with the goose egg, that's an average of 5 catches per game. We like our odds here.

Total Sacks - Clay Matthews
UNDER 1/2 (+175)


Lastly, and maybe most controversially, we don't think the Claymaker will make any Clays... or plays. At least not in the form of a sack. Clay had a hot start to the season, but was slowed by injuries and newly implemented defensive schemes late in the season. You can bet the Steelers are game planning for the Packers biggest impact player defensively, and you can bet it will pay off. Clay will get pressure, and the Packers will get sacks based off of him simply running Ben Roethlisberger into a teammates open arms, but Clay won't get the credit in the box score.

That does it for our preview of the Packers player prop bets in the Super Bowl. We'll take a look at the Steelers player prop bets tomorrow.

2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) Prop Bet: Blake Griffin vs. the Green Bay Packers


Leading up to the 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) between the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers, we'll be taking a look at Super Bowl proposition betting, or more specifically, the fun or funny Super Bowl 45 (XLV) prop bets that you hear so much about. That includes props on the Super Bowl coin toss, Super Bowl halftime show, Super Bowl National Anthem, Super Bowl postgame Gatorade Shower dump and much more. Follow along on the Super Bowl sidebar to the right!

Some of the more intriguing Super Bowl prop bets are always the cross sport bets, such as the one featuring the soon to be NBA Rookie of the Year.

Who Will Have More Points on Feb 6th 2011 Money
Blake Griffin (Clippers vs. Heat)
Packers Points

On paper, this bet appears to favor the Packers. The standard team prop has the Packers over/under at 24 points in the Super Bowl. Blake Griffin is averaging less than that, at 23.0 points per game. Naturally, you should take the Packers, right?

Not so fast. While Griffin is averaging 23 for the season, the rookie has been even hotter lately. Griffin scored 32 points for the second game in a row after averaging 26.0 per game throughout the month of January. So, for those of you looking to bet on the Packers over/under, you could potentially give yourself a couple points of wiggle room if you like the under by pitting the Packers against Blake Griffin.

Then again, in Griffin's first meeting against the Heat, of course, he had 24 points. Which puts us back to square one.

The bottom line: we still think the Packers outscore Blake. The Clippers/Heat game could either be a chance for Griffin to showcase himself once again on a national stage with a huge game, or a could be a huge blowout in which the rookie doesn't play as much as he usually does. We're expecting a high-scoring Super Bowl and are sticking with the team on the football field over the player on the basketball court.

Tuesday, February 1, 2011

2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) Prop Bet: The Black Eyed Peas (Fergie) Halftime Show


Leading up to the 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) between the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers, we'll be taking a look at Super Bowl proposition betting, or more specifically, the fun or funny Super Bowl 45 (XLV) prop bets that you hear so much about. That includes props on the Super Bowl coin toss, Super Bowl halftime show, Super Bowl National Anthem, Super Bowl postgame Gatorade Shower dump and much more. Follow along on the Super Bowl sidebar to the right!

Our Super Bowl prop betting extravaganza continues with more 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) prop bets that may or may not have anything to do with the actual game between the Steelers and Packers. OK, scratch that, they ABSOLUTELY have nothing to do with the actual game--but isn't that exactly what makes Super Bowl prop betting so fun? Yes, yes it is.

After roughly 30 minutes of actual football are played on Super Sunday, Fergie and the Black Eyed Peas will perform at the 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) Halftime Show. This is quite possibly reason No. 3 why so many people tune into the Super Bowl (behind the game and the commercials, of course), and it would be a shame if we went on with our prop betting analysis without mentioning the Black Eyed Peas prop bets. Or, more to the point, the prop bets relating to Fergie's outfit.

Because the Super Bowl Halftime Show, for seemingly the first time since we all saw Janet Jackson's nipple, has gone with an artist under the age of 84, the Black Eyed Peas don't have as many tunes as previous halftime acts. Since it is a certainty that they play hit songs like "I Gotta Feeling" and "Boom Boom Pow," the traditional halftime act prop bet of "Which songs will (artist) perform at halftime" are out the window. Leaving us with props about the main singer's wardrobe.

We would be upset about this, but at this point bookies know that people (ourselves included) will bet on any Super Bowl prop they throw out there. Basically, we'll take what we can get.

There are two props that are widely available pertaining to Fergie's halftime outfits, and only one of them is legitimate. That said, let's get this time waster out of the way:

Will Fergie be dressed as a Dallas Cowboys Cheerleader at any point during the Halftime show?
Must be completely dressed as an authentic Dallas Cowboys Cheerleader for Yes to be graded as the winner.
Yes +500

5/1 odds? That's it? Are you kidding? This is an example of a throwaway prop bet, as we discussed earlier, and should be avoided at all costs. The books sucker thousands of people into taking these bets, offering outlandish scenarios that somehow seem plausible and offering only one option to bet on, because if the other were available, it would get pounded by anyone with a brain. So no, Fergie will not be wearing a Cowboys cheerleading outfit at the Super Bowl halftime act.

The main Fergie wardrobe prop bet gets more specific:

What will Fergie be wearing when she first appears on stage during the Super Bowl Halftime Show?
Wager is on what she is wearing first on stage. If she is not wearing any of the above all wagers will be No Action.
Skirt/Dress: EVEN
Pants (Below Knees): EVEN
Shorts (Above Knees): +350
Thong/G-String/Bikini Bottom: +1000

Even in this more detailed prop, there are options you can eliminate right away. The last option would almost certainly be nixed by the NFL, wanting to avoid any and all controversial wardrobes that may be conducive to a malfunction. OUT. The Shorts option is possible, just highly unlikely, also OUT.

So that leaves us with a 50/50 choice, appropriately given EVEN odds each. And while we can easily see a skirt or dress, we feel that there is a better than 50 percent chance that Fergie comes out rocking some tight leather pants instead. Fergie, while very attractive, is 35 years old. She's been dressing very conservatively at her more recent concerts with Black Eyed Peas, at least comparatively speaking, and we think she does so on the biggest stage she has ever played.

Of course, she might come out with no top on whatsoever, but the bottoms will probably be pants.

2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) Prop Bet: The Jerry Jones Camera Shots


Leading up to the 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) between the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers, we'll be taking a look at Super Bowl proposition betting, or more specifically, the fun or funny Super Bowl 45 (XLV) prop bets that you hear so much about. That includes props on the Super Bowl coin toss, Super Bowl halftime show, Super Bowl National Anthem, Super Bowl postgame Gatorade Shower dump and much more. Follow along on the Super Bowl sidebar to the right!

As we continue to bring you the best 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) Prop Bet analysis on the web, we're reminded that all of our prop bets will be taking place in Cowboys stadium--aka the House that Jerry built.

The stadium is so massive that it is actually a big part of the storyline in this year's Super Bowl, and as such Jerry Jones has been all over the news promoting an even (the Super Bowl, duh) that doesn't need promoting.

So when game time actually arrives, will Jerry Jones continue to be plastered all over the TV?

Let's take a look at this prop bet involving Cowboys owner Jerry Jones:

How Many Times will FOX show Jerry Jones on TV during the Game?
Wager is on the number of times Jerry Jones will appear on TV during the Game (from kick off until final whistle). Live pictures only, Any Taped Pictures or Past Video does not count towards wager.
Over 2.5 (-135)
Under 2.5 (-105)

Like the prop bet involving Brett Favre being mentioned, this prop bet feasts on the casual football fans who have been hearing about Jerry Jones all week on CNN, or whatever channel casual football fans usually have turned on (weather?). And much like the Favre prop, we think that this will all end on Super Sunday--or at least from the kickoff until the final whistle, as the prop requires.

Jerry Jones might get a shot or two of TV time, but the story no longer becomes about him during game day. Many of these enticing prop bets become obsolete during the 4 hours or so that a game/halftime performance actually occurs. And, again like the Favre prop, so many public bettors pound the over on these bets that you can actually get better odds on the right play--the under.

A Jerry Jones sighting seems likely, but we wouldn't even bet to see him once during the game. When the media is no longer desperate for stories as they are for the two weeks leading up to the Super Bowl (team photos, really?), all the backstories disappear--as well Jerry Jones when the television cameras come around.

UNDER 2.5 is the play, despite what the public action might say.

We're going to kick things into overdrive in the next couple days, with several 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) Prop Bets per day instead of our usual one or two. It's the Super Bowl, and as we mentioned, that means quantity over quality winning out in pre-game stories.