2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) Prop Bet: The Pittsburgh Steelers Player Props

Leading up to the 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) between the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers, we'll be taking a look at Super Bowl proposition betting, or more specifically, the fun or funny Super Bowl 45 (XLV) prop bets that you hear so much about. That includes props on the Super Bowl coin toss, Super Bowl halftime show, Super Bowl National Anthem, Super Bowl postgame Gatorade Shower dump and much more. Follow along on the Super Bowl sidebar to the right!

Yesterday, we took a look at some Green Bay Packers player prop bets that we found to have some value, and today we're doing the same with the Pittsburgh Steelers as we count down the days to Super Bowl XLV (45).

Total Rushing Yards - Rashard Mendenhall

OVER 77 1/2 (-120)

Much has been made about the Packers stout defensive line, but Rashard Mendenhall will get his. This guy is an animal and the Steelers are committed to getting him his touches. He'll take care of the rest.

Total Receiving Yards - Hines Ward

UNDER 42 1/2 (-105)

Much like Donald Driver, Hines Ward is a big name and a quality receiver, but there are simply better options for Pittsburgh at this point. He hasn't had an entirely productive playoffs and we anticipate that continuing in the Super Bowl while others fill the void.

Total Receiving Yards - Emmanuel Sanders

OVER 35 1/2 (-120)

Just as we like Jordy Nelson to step up in Driver's place, we like Emmanuel Sanders to take the touches from Hines Ward. Sanders has had a great second half of the season, and should have a performance similar to his divisional playoff game (54 yards) rather than his AFC Championship (20 yards).

Total Receptions - Emmanuel Sanders

OVER 2 1/2 (-130)

Again, we're riding the Emmanuel Sanders gravy train. It'll cost us some chalk, but 2 1/2 seems about a catch too for this prop.

Total Sacks - James Harrison

UNDER 1/2 (+120)

Once again, we're going against a big name player recording a sack (see Matthews, Clay). Harrison should be a marked man, and Aaron Rodgers mobility and pocket presence will probably keep him from Harrison's hits, both legal and not. We're banking on as much.

That does it for our Steelers player props. We'll put the finishing touches on our coverage of 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) this weekend and then, finally, enjoy the big game. We hope you have enjoyed our prop betting coverage, and we hope you enjoy it even more when it results in more spending cash.

2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) Prop Bet: The Super Bowl MVP

Leading up to the 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) between the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers, we'll be taking a look at Super Bowl proposition betting, or more specifically, the fun or funny Super Bowl 45 (XLV) prop bets that you hear so much about. That includes props on the Super Bowl coin toss, Super Bowl halftime show, Super Bowl National Anthem, Super Bowl postgame Gatorade Shower dump and much more. Follow along on the Super Bowl sidebar to the right!

We take a slight break from the goofy prop bets to look at a more standard option--the 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) MVP.

Who will win the Super Bowl MVP?

Aaron Rodgers 7/4
James Starks 14/1
Brandon Jackson 50/1
Greg Jennings 12/1
Donald Driver 25/1
James Jones 30/1
Jordy Nelson 30/1
A.J. Hawk 30/1
Clay Matthews 18/1
B.J. Raji 30/1
Cullen Jenkins 50/1
Tramon Williams 25/1
Charles Woodson 20/1
Sam Shields 35/1

Ben Roethlisberger 7/2
Rashard Mendenhall 15/2
Mike Wallace 16/1
Hines Ward 25/1
Emmanuel Sanders 35/1
Heath Miller 25/1
Troy Polamalu 15/1
James Harrison 22/1
James Farrior 28/1
Lawrence Timmons 28/1

Field 15/1

Before determining who will win the Most Valuable Player Award in the Super Bowl, you must first decide your pick to win the game--the Packers or Steelers. The losing team simply will not have a player win the MVP--as has happened once in 1971 when Chuck Howley of the Cowboys won the award despite a loss the Colts in Super Bowl V (5). Howley refused to even accept the award, which he found meaningless after the loss, so you can bank on that result never happening again.

When you make your pick for the eventual Super Bowl champion, you can eliminate half of your above options for the MVP. Beyond that, it gets tricky, but you can narrow it down to an educated guess.

For example, like the Super Bowl coin toss prop bet, we are essentially dealing with a 50/50 proposition here--a quarterback has won the award 52% of the time (23/44). However, when the Steelers have been in the Super Bowl, only Terry Bradshaws back-to-back MVPs have been won by a quarterback, giving them just a 33% historical chance at a QB (2/6) winning the award. The Packers, thanks to Bart Starr's back-to-back awards, are 67% (2/3).

Most importantly from the above figures is that Ben Roethlisberger has not won the award. In the Steelers past two Super Bowls, his receivers Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward, respectively, have won the award. Given that he has not won it, and given the tendency to automatically give the QB the award (Peyton Manning over Dominic Rhodes in Super Bowl XLI is evidence of that), we like Roethlisberger's odds of 7/2. Like the previous Super Bowl winning QB in Pittsburgh, Terry Bradshaw, two position players have won the award in his first two cracks, but we anticipate the third time being the charm should the Steelers defeat the Packers.

If we had to make a wild card selection for the Steelers (aka not a QB), we would say Rashard Mendenhall. Mendenhall ran tough throughout the playoffs and looks determined to get a ring as a member of the active roster (unlike in Super Bowl XLIII when he was injured; not sure whether or not he was included in the team photo). Getting 15/2 odds isn't bad for the running back, though an RB has not won since Terrell Davis in Super Bowl XXXII (32).

As for the Packers, the fact that they are favored to win means that Aaron Rodgers' odds (7/4) are slightly better than Roethlisberger's, and he will rightfully be a popular pick for the Super Bowl MVP should the Packers win it all. Otherwise, keep an eye on Greg Jennings at 12/1, or even some of his other targets. The way the Packers throw the ball it is far more likely that a WR win the award rather than a RB.

While both teams have good defenses and could potentially have a defensive player win the award (Sam Shields or B.J. Raji likely would have captured the award in the NFC Championship game, if one were given), a defender typically has to make multiple big plays in order to win the award, and even then it is rare.

Only eight defensive players in total (including co-MVPs in Super Bowl XII) have won the Super Bowl MVP, as well as one special teams player--Packer fans might remember Desmond Howard's big returns making him the MVP of Super Bowl XXXI (31), surprisingly over Brett Favre and his three touchdowns (two passing, one rushing).

While it can happen, this is again about making as educated a bet as possible. Some names are thrown on the list of potential MVPs (such as Brandon Jackson at 50/1) simply to entice the loads of public money on some unlikely players. Stray from the random bets and stick with what we know. In theory, if quarterbacks win the award about 50 percent of the time, and there are two quarterbacks in the game, our math gives us just over a 25 percent chance on either QB choice.

So whether you like the Packers or Steelers to win the game, expect Aaron Rodgers or Ben Roethlisberger to take this year's MVP. The quarterback play is simply too good in this one to pass up.

Thursday is the big day when many books release the official numbers on some of the standard props--as well as bucket load of funny proposition bets. Check back tomorrow for our take on some of the whackier prop bets of 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45).

Early 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) Prop Bets

Leading up to the 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) between the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers, we'll be taking a look at Super Bowl proposition betting, or more specifically, the fun or funny Super Bowl 45 (XLV) prop bets that you hear so much about. That includes props on the Super Bowl coin toss, Super Bowl halftime show, Super Bowl National Anthem, Super Bowl postgame Gatorade Shower dump and much more. Follow along on the Super Bowl sidebar to the right!

As your unofficial home for all things Super Bowl prop betting, we wanted to give you an idea of what to expect in your proposition betting adventures over the course of the next two weeks leading up to The Big Game.

Here are some standard and generic prop bets that will be offered for the matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers.

For starters, some of which we mentioned earlier this morning, here are some of the fun and wacky Super Bowl prop bets we look forward to every year:

• How long will the National Anthem last? This will be an over/under, usually somewhere between 1:30-2:00. This year, the Star Spangled Banner will be performed by Christina Aguilera.
• How many times the announcers will say ____? This could be the name of a player not involved in the game but heavily mentioned in the pre-game hype. Brett Favre is an obvious possibility.
• How many times will cameras show ____? This could again be a famous person or player not involved in the game but in attendance. Not President Barack Obama, evidently.
• Will this be the highest rated Super Bowl ever? With two large fan bases in the Packers and Steelers, this will be attainable. This year's Super Bowl will air on FOX.)
• What color will the liquid poured on the winning coach be? One of our favorites, this will be a multiple choice question. Just pick a color, simple as that.
• Who will the game MVP thank first? It could be teammates, a higher power, God, parents, fans, etc.
• What songs will the halftime entertainer sing? The Black Eyed Peas are this year's halftime act. You can always expect their biggest hits to be played, but there is usually a wild card or two thrown in there.
• Will the coin toss be heads or tails? Very easy to bet on. Very popular bet. Yes, there is a correlation between the two.
• Which Super Bowl commercial will have the highest rating according to the USA Today's annual ad meter? Here, you'll bet on which company will be advertised in the top commercial. Beer makers, soft drink producers, and some of the other major Super Bowl advertisers will be options.
• Which game will be higher scoring, the Super Bowl or _____? Variations of this will exist, asking whether the Super Bowl score will be higher than a college basketball game on Super Sunday, or if a quarterback will have more completions than a basketball player has points, etc.

Aside from the fun props, here's a general list of what to expect:

First, there are your regular lines. The Packers opened at -2 favorites with an over/under set at 45. Don't feel like you have to bet on those, though. Those lines will be different on a quarter-by-quarter basis and updated as the game goes on. The basic bets look like this:

• Spread
• Moneyline
• First half line
• First quarter line
• Second quarter line
• Third quarter line
• Fourth quarter line (not including overtime)
• Over/Under

Then you get a little more specific:

• Total points scored by the home team (Packers)
• Total points scored by the visiting team (Steelers)
• First team to score
• Last team to score
• Will the last team to score win the game?
• Will there be a score in the last two minutes of the first half?
• Will either team score three unanswered times?
• Will there be a score in the first six and a half minutes of the game?
• Which team will have the longest touchdown?
• Will there be a successful two-point conversion?
• Will there be a safety?
• Which half will have the highest point score?
• Which quarter will have the highest point score?
• Will the home team ever have the lead?
• Which team will commit the first turnover?
• Which team will use the coaches' challenge first?
• Which team will be the first to call a timeout?
• Will there be overtime?
• Which team will get the first penalty?

Then, as we inch closer to the game, we'll have plenty of player props:

• Who will have more yards between a Packers RB/WR (such as Greg Jennings) and Steelers RB/WR (such as Hines Ward)?
• Who will have more tackles between a Packers defender (such as Clay Matthews) or Steelers defender (such as James Harrison)?
• How many yards will a team's star player (such as Aaron Rodgers) have? Answers will be in increments. For example: Between 200-240; Between 240-280, etc.)

Now that you know what to expect, you can expect to find more in-depth coverage of the above proposition bets right here at Stock Lemon. Tomorrow we will begin with our very detailed coverage of some of these aforementioned prop bets as we try to make prop betting profitable during the 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) between the Packers and Steelers.

Super Bowl XLIII Player Prop Bet Results

We pointed you in the direction of six player props in Super Bowl 43, three for the Cardinals and three for the Steelers. We went 2-0 on the team props, but the player props went about as smoothly as the Cardinals rushing game.

Speaking of which, that's where we'll start. We thought the Edgerrin James would rush for over 49 1/2, given that he's been getting over 20 carries a game for the Cardinals in the playoffs. He had just nine carries and 33 yards. 

We thought that Steve Breaston would be held to under 39 1/2 receiving yards. He finished with six grabs and 71 yards. 

Finally, we thought that at the very least, Larry Fitzgerald would have more catches than Anquan Boldin. Unfortunately, this prop applied to more than just the fourth quarter, and Boldin caught eight balls to Fitzgerald's seven, though Fitz had 43 more yards. 

Final talley on Cardinals props: 0-3. 

Fortunately, the Steelers player props went a little better. 

An injured Hines Ward failed to break 69 1/2 receiving yards, finishing with just 43 on two catches and giving us our lone Steeler player prop bet loss. 

In his absence, somebody had to step up, but we didn't think it would be Nate Washington, so we took under 34 1/2 yards. He finished with just 11 yards on one grab late in the game. 

Mewelde Moore didn't step up either, which was fine by us, as we had him combining for less thatn 27 1/2 receiving and rushing yards. His two touches gave him just ten yards. 

Final talley on Steelers player props: 2-1. 

Combined player props: 2-4.

Combined prop bets: 4-4.

So, there you have it. Those are the results of our prop Bets for the 2009 Super Bowl 43. We already can't wait for Super Bowl 44. 

Super Bowl XLIII Prop Bets: Steelers Players

Leading up to the Super Bowl, we'll be taking a look at various proposition bets for the 2009 Super Bowl, Super Bowl 43, Super Bowl XLIII, The Big Game, or whatever you want to call it. You can check out previous prop bet analysis on the upper right sidebar.

Earlier, we gave you three Cardinals players props that we see good value in. Now, as you might have guessed, it's the Steelers turn.

Hines Ward OVER 69 1/2 receiving yards (EVEN)

Talk all you want the injury to Hines Ward, but if he plays (which he will), he'll produce. Taking the under is the trendy play, due to the injury, but if Ward is on the field, he's Ben Roethlisberger's go-to guy.

Hines has eclipsed the 69 1/2 yard mark in four of his last five games, missing the mark only in the Ravens game when he suffered his knee injury and had to leave with just 55 yards. Santonio Holmes might put up some nice numbers, but Ward will rise to the occassion as well. With this prop at even odds, you should do the same.

Nate Washington UNDER 34 1/2 receiving yards (EVEN)

With Hines playing, Nate Washington won't be getting that increase in looks that some might have expected him to get. He hasn't crossed the 34 1/2 yard mark in any of his last three games, posting totals of just 13, 30, and 21.

Like the Ward bet, this prop is for even money. While there is a good chance that both hit, there's a great chance that you'll at least get one, which means you won't lose any juice if you go 1-1. Still, expect to go 2-0 on these two.

Mewelde Moore UNDER 27 1/2 rushing and receiving yards combined (-110)

Mewelde Moore did an admirable job filling in for Willie Parker earlier this season, but it's Willie's show now. Mewelde got just two touches in the AFC Championship, and his role has been largely reduced in the playoffs. His totals of 25 and then 15 yards in the two playoff games for the Steelers show that they are slowly going away from Mewelde "not getting the ball any" Moore.

There's more Super Bowl 43 prop bet coverage to come here at Stock Lemon, so go ahead and bookmark us and get yourself back here before Super Sunday.