Wednesday, December 31, 2008

End of the Year Bowling

We have two bowl game Free NCAA Football Picks today after dropping to 2-1 on the bowl season.

Chick-fil-A Bowl
LSU/Georgia Tech OVER 53

Insight Bowl
Minnesota +9 over Kansas

Good luck!

Monday, December 29, 2008

Okay, Forget the Alamo Bowl

Missouri needed overtime to beat Northwestern 30-23 in the Alamo Bowl, meaning they failed to cover the -13 spread.

So, on second thought, feel free to completely forget the Alamo Bowl.

This game blemishes that perfect 100% bowl game mark of ours, knocking us down to 2-1 in the bowl season.

Don't Forget the Alamo Bowl

It's Alamo Bowl time, which means you'll probably be seeing plenty of headlines similar to our "Don't Forget the Alamo." "Remember the Alamo," perhaps?

Anyway, we've got a pick that's probably just as popular as the above headline, which scares us a bit. Nevertheless, we're hoping to improve on that impressive 2-0 bowl record of ours with this Free NCAA Football Pick tonight.

Missouri -13 over Northwestern

Hopefully, the Alamo Bowl will be worth remembering.

Good luck!

Free NCAA Football Picks Record Update

We realize it's been a while since we've updated our Free NCAA Football Picks record, so ask and you shall receive. (Or don't ask, and eventually we'll just give it to you anyway.)

Overall: 30-25-1... 55%
Since Week 6: 20-12-1... 63%
Bowl Games: 2-0... 100%

As you can see, we've had some success in the second half of the season after what can be described as an extremely rocky start.

And we fully expect that 100% bowl game percentage to survive as we end the college football season with a bang.

Free NFL Picks End Regular Season At 59%

And with that, ladies and gentlemen, another NFL regular season is in the books. Here at Stock Lemon, it means another successful season, though we certainly would have liked to play more games--and would have if we knew our Free NFL Picks would finish at just 59%.

The main reason for the sucess of our Free NFL Picks is that we are so picky with them. Rather than play nearly all of the games each week as we're routinely tempted to do, we stick to our computer system in hopes that we'll finish in the high 60's or low 70's for winning percentage.

Obviously, that didn't happen, and while 59% is respectable, it's definitely lower than we hoped. The good news for us: there is plenty of playoff football ahead, which means plenty more opportunities to improve on that mark.

On the bright side, we ended the regular season with a 3-1 day, giving us our 59% with a record of 26-18-2.

Thanks to the 0-16 Lions being just a little bit less awful than expected, Detroit covered a +10 spread in a 31-21 loss to the Packers. Elsewhere, the Giants nearly won outright and easily covered a +7 spread on the road against the Vikings with a 20-19 loss, while the Dolphins went from 1-15 to 11-5, covering a +3 spread with a 24-17 win over the Jets in the process.

Thus concludes our regular season NFL fun for the year.

We will have a play for every playoff game, regardless of whether or not it is a system play or not, so check us out for all of your playoff betting needs.

Sunday, December 28, 2008

Free NFL Picks Close Out Regular Season

The last batch of Free NFL Picks for the 2008 regular season is in, and the picks, unlike the last few weeks, there are actually multiple picks.

As you'll notice, it's a very interesting week for the system as all four picks are underdogs. With the regular season ending and various teams resting starters for much of the finale, we tried to estimate the time each team will play their starters, and then calculated our data as we normally do each week.

As a result, the picks are a little different from our normal system, but are Free NFL Picks nonetheless.

It's also interesting that we have all of the NFC North covered this week, but since there are so many intriguing matchups, it isn't surprising.

Lions +11 over Packers

The Lions have everything to play for in this one while the Packers are just limping out of the year. Granted, nobody wants to lose to an 0-15 team, but with an 11-point cushion, the Packers don't even have to lose for this to be a winner. We're tempted by that +500 moneyline as well.

Bears +3 over Texans

Apparently we like the Bears to make the playoffs, when you factor in this pick with the next one. Although the Bears could still lose in a close one and miss the playoffs for us to win both bets, if your bookie is still taking bets on the NFC North Champ, it looks like our Free NFL Picks are telling you to take the Bears.

Giants +7 over Vikings

The Giants don't have much to play, or anything for that matter, and we still like this pick. That should tell you all you need to know about the Vikings.

Dolphins +3 over Jets

Cold weather game + Brett Favre = Dolphins +3. It's still hard to say with a straight face that Chad Pennington has a stronger arm than Brett Favre, but at this point, it's the truth.

Good luck!

Jenn Sterger Delivers Again!

Thanks to Jenn Sterger, we have a little bit of extra cash in our pockets. Well... thanks to her alma mater, anyway. The Florida State Seminoles walloped the Wisconsin Badgers, 42-13, covering the -6 spread with ease.

As many of you know, our favorite Facebook friend made a name for herself while at Florida State, just as we made a name for ourselves as one of the premier cappers in the 2008 Champs Sports Bowl. Our 100% accuracy in this bowl game is tied for the best in the history of the Champs Sports Bowl.

Really, though, our Free NCAA Football Picks are now 2-0 in bowl season and hopefully we will have some more bowl picks as our calendar continues to run out.

Saturday, December 27, 2008

Reminder: FSU in the Champs Sports Bowl

Just posting this to remind everyone that Florida State is a Free NCAA Football Pick today in the Champs Sports Bowl over Wisconsin. Since we usually only post on the day of the game, plus with all the holiday distractions (like Lemmy's birthday), we figured you could use a friendly reminder.

We should also have a good batch of Free NFL Picks for you in the last regular season week of the season, so check back in tomorrow.

Good luck!

Thursday, December 25, 2008

Merry Christmas To You, Happy Birthday To Us!

It's December 25, which of course, means it's Christmas day.

More importantly, though, is that on this day one year ago, in the wee hours of Christmas morning, Lemmy was born.

This site has officially been up and running for a full year, providing you with the main squeeze on stocks (sometimes) and sports wagers. At the exact minute of this post, Stock Lemon turned one.

That said, we'd like to wish Lemmy a Happy Birthday. Don't tell him that his hat doesn't fit.

So whether you're celebrating the birth of Jesus or the birth of Lemmy, enjoy Christmas day.

Thanks for hanging around for a full year, and, we hope, for many years ahead.

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

The Champs Sports Bowl Pick is in!

We're an incredible 1-0 so far in the college bowl season, hitting 100% of our picks! Next up: The Champs Sports Bowl. Although this bowl game is still three days away, we had to take a break from the Christmas Eve festivities to post this before the line jumped on us.

Florida State -6 over Wisconsin

With apologies to our friends over at The Bucky Channel, this isn't a good year for the Badgers to be facing the Seminoles for the first time in their history. Our Free NCAA Football Picks system sees real value in the Seminoles.

It's rare that we post a play so far in advance, so that should tell you how much we like Florida State to take care of business. Or it should tell you that we have a busy couple of days ahead and weren't sure when else to post this. Either way.

Good luck!

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Poinsetta Bowl Picks Improve to 1-0 All-Time

Boise St. lost to TCU in the Poinsetta Bowl, 17-16, but all was not lost. The three-point dogs covered the spread and gave us a win in our first bowl game pick of the year.

With the win, we are now 1-0 all-time with Poinsetta Bowl Picks! Hooray! Make sure to mark your calanders for 2009's match-up.

In all seriousness, though, it's nice to get a Free NCAA Football Pick at a time when some of our other systems are either on losing streaks or are pushing the old fasioned way (by not playing any games).

And the good news is, there are plenty more bowls to come to hold us over as we begin our countdown to Poinsetta Bowl 2k9.

The Poinsetta Bowl Is Finally Here!

We know you've been waiting for our Poinsetta Bowl pick all year, and finally, the wait is over.

Our first Free NCAA Football Pick of the Bowl season goes to...

Boise St +3 over TCU

Even if Ian Johnson and the Misses don't renew their wedding vows after the game, he should have plenty of reason to celebrate after his last bowl game with the Broncos.

Good luck!

Strange Week Here at Stock Lemon

It's been a strange, or should we say, quiet week here at Stock Lemon. We're still messing around with our Free NBA Picks system and in the meantime thougth we'd have some Free NCAA Basketball Picks for you, but that hasn't been the case.

To make matters weirder (and quieter), we had no Free NFL Picks for the first time all year, after having just one last week. We've gone through some quiet patches before (usually with our Free MLB Picks), but expect things to pick up again as we near the end of the calendar year.

Meanwhile, we're getting ready to go bowling with some Free NCAA Football Picks in the coming days, so stay with us as we close out 2008.

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

A Random College Basketball Pick

Our Free NCAA Basketball Picks are extremely sporadic, but are usually pretty successful when there is value on the board.

Of course, around tournament time we lower our standards so that we can make more bets--more for fun than for profit--but during the season, the picks have to have a lot of value in order for us to play them. Fortunately for us, after a few days without any picks, we have a college basketball play for tonight.

Louisville -15 over Ole Miss

This is only the second Free NCAA Basketball Pick of the year, in case you didn't believe us about rarely having plays in this sport. So far we're hitting 100% of our picks and fully anticipate keeping that impressive record throughout the year.

Good luck!

Monday, December 15, 2008

Time For Our Free NBA Picks to Take a Break

Despite a nice slate of NBA games tonight, and what looks like some decent plays from our Free NBA Picks system, we're holding off on these picks for now. 

We've got some numbers to crunch in regards to this system, which only seems to be correct when it comes to betting on the Cleveland Cavaliers. While we could just try and ride the Cavs all season, we somehow doubt that it would be what you could consider sustainable betting. 

We'll tinker with the stats that we use for our picks, but we'll keep the original formula in tact and keep a constant eye on it, since we really started getting hot (and posting our plays online) starting in about late January when the sample sizes for the year were much bigger. 

Stay tuned. We should have some new NBA leans later this week. 

Sunday, December 14, 2008

Sunday Night Free NFL Pick

Just one play this week, although a Monday Free NFL Pick is still a possibility.

Giants +3 over the Cowboys

The Cowboys need it more and are at home, yeah yeah, but the Giants aren't about to lose back-to-back games. 

Good luck!

Saturday, December 13, 2008

Play With Caution

We have another Free NBA Pick for you to fade today: 

Rockets -4 over the Clippers

With Tracy McGrady back for the Rockets, and Chris Kaman still out for the Clip Show, this looks like a slump buster for us. Then again, probably not. 

Good luck!

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Non-Cavs Free NBA Picks Continue to Struggle

We have another non-Cleveland Cavalier Free NBA Pick tonight, so play with caution. 

Milwaukee Bucks +1.5 over the Golden State Warriors

Some injuries for the Warriors make this one a favorable match-up for the Bucks, even on the road. 

Good luck--you'll need it. 

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Another Big NBA Favorite

Our Free NBA Picks like another double digit favorite tonight as they try to improve on their record when we don't bet on the Cavaliers. 

Lakers -11 over the Kings

Good luck!

Monday, December 8, 2008

Jenn Sterger Did it and So Can You!

A while back, we told you that Stock Lemon entered the world of social networking by adding a Facebook page. Well, unfortunately, that page has since been removed, since Facebook only allows individuals rather than multi-billion dollar corporations like us. 

But fear not, Facebook friends, there are still multiple ways to let the Facebook world know of your love for Stock Lemon. Our marketing "intern" Wendy has been all over getting us all sorts of social networking exposure. 

First and foremost, you can join the Stock Lemon page, as 194 brave souls have already done, including the lovely Jenn Sterger currently of the New York Jets. If you're unfamiliar with Jenn, Wikipedia has you covered on her rise to fame. Now, we're using that fame to try and take over the Facebook world. 

If the Stock Lemon page isn't enough for you, go ahead and join the Stock Lemon blog network and the Stock Lemon group as well, although we must warn you that Jenn is not a part of these two applications. 

If nothing else, at least these gave us an excuse to post a picture of a girl for once. 

Sunday, December 7, 2008

A Winning Week in the NFL!

Well, it definitely wasn't the busy Sunday we anticipated earlier in the week, but at least it was a winning Sunday. 

The Ravens beat the Redskins 24-10 to cover the -6 spread and give us a Free NFL Pick win, putting us just shy of that coveted 60% mark at 23-16-2 (59%). 

Hopefully there will be more NFL action next weekend. 

So Much For Having A Busy Weekend

We told you earlier this week that we were looking forward to a potential huge weekend of plays, especially in the NFL. 

Well, if you could tell by the fact that we had no posts earlier today, there were no Free NFL Picks this afternoon. In fact, our only play is the Sunday nighter. 

Ravens -6 over Redskins

Good luck!

Saturday, December 6, 2008

Take the Tide Today

Our Free NCAA Football Picks are hitting 62% in the last eight weeks and we have one play in the SEC Championship Game today. 

Alabama +10 over Florida

This should do it for our Free NCAA Football Picks until it's time to go bowling. 

Good luck!

Cavs Keeping Free NBA Picks Afloat

For the third time this year, the Cavaliers were a Free NBA Pick. For the third time this year, the Cavaliers delivered a victory. 

With a 97-73 win over the Pacers, the Cavs made it easy on us, covering the -11 spread without a problem. 

Our Free NBA Picks are off to an absolutely horrible start, especially considering they were 40-20 last year (67%). We expect them to pick up as they did in the second half of last season when the statistical data we use has a bigger sample size, but for now, just awful. 

Take a look at the numbers for this season:
Cleveland Cavs as a Free NBA Pick: 3-0
29 other teams as a Free NBA Pick: 1-8
Overall record: 4-8

Unreal. 1-8! A lot of cappers are having a tough time with the beginning of the 2008-09 season, but we've caught a lot of bad breaks to start the year. 

We hope you stick with us through these tough times. We fully expect these picks to rebound, but for now, you might want to be careful when we bet on 29 of the 30 teams in the NBA. 

Friday, December 5, 2008

Another Cavs Free NBA Pick

It seems like our Free NBA Picks really have been favoring the Cleveland Cavaliers this year.

Maybe it's because they are 15-3, or maybe because they have one of the best players in the game in LeBron James, but whatever it is, the system likes them again tonight.

Cleveland Cavaliers -11 over Indiana Pacers

So get used to the Cavs as a Free NBA Pick--until 2010 anyway. 

Thursday, December 4, 2008

Enjoy the Day Off

If you hadn't noticed, we have no plays today, but enjoy the day off while you can.

From the looks of it, we could have a pretty busy weekend, particularly in the NFL.

Stay tuned.

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

East Carolina Covers At +2 or -2

Earlier today, we posted our first Free NCAA Basketball Pick of the year, taking those mighty Pirates of ECU +2 over UNC Wilmington.

We checked back before tip-off and found some of the craziest line movement that we've seen in just a few hours, all the way from +2 to -2. Either way, hopefully you grabbed East Carolina, who won the game 99-85 to give even the cappers who mysteriously got them at -14 1/2 a victory.

Now that we're tied for the greastest win percentage in the history of NCAA basketball betting at 100%, we should almost call it quits.

Of course, we won't, and we will probably have many more picks to come as the season starts picking up, particularly with conference play.

Until then, enjoy the 100% rate at which we pick college basketball.

Our First Free NCAA Basketball Pick This Year

Our Free NCAA Basketball Picks are still a work in progress and haven't had the sucess that we've had in other sports, but we think we have everything worked out and all the correct data entered in our spreadsheets. 

So, with that in mind, we've saved our first pick of the year for one of the biggest games of the year. That's right, East Carolina and UNC Wilmington!

East Carolina +2 over UNC Wilmington

Let's get the 2008-09 college basketball season off on the right foot. Good luck!

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

An NBA Over For Tonight

Once again, it's been a slow start to the NBA this year for a lot of cappers, and that's been true so far with our Free NBA Picks. Still, there's one pick tonight as we keep plugging away.

New Jersey Nets/Washington Wizars OVER 206

And no, that's not a typo. There is no D in Wizards, at least on the court.

Good luck and let's get back on track.

Monday, December 1, 2008

Lemmy Awards: Top Sports Wagering Sites

Yes, folks, it's time for another presentation of our Lemmy Awards, which recognize excellence in sports related websites.

We've given out a few Lemmy Awards in the past, once for the Top Five Sports Betting and Stock Websites and once for the Top Five Rivals Sports Message Boards.

As our focus shifts more in the direction of sports wagering than stock picking (though we're not done flirting with the stock market just yet), we thought it would be a good idea to narrow some Lemmy Awards to the Top Sports Wagering Sites, eliminating stocks from the award.

We should note that these awards are only for American-based sports betting sites, though we know of many great European sports wagering blogs, which may call for another Lemmy Awards presentation on a later date. For now, check out Green-All-Over for sports investing or Ed's Betting Blog for some picks or Italian Easy Bet (Scommesse Facili) if you're fluent in Italian, all of which can be found permanently on the Lemmy's Friends blogroll. We should also mention Picks That Cover, which isn't foreign but they have only been around since October, so we'll let them grow before throwing the high expectations that a Lemmy Award brings at them.

Since we've been around a lot longer than we were when we rolled out our first awards, there are many blogs that we only recently found out about and there surely are many more we haven't yet discovered, so don't feel bad if your blog is not included in this edition. If you have a blog you feel is worthy, go ahead and shoot us an e-mail so we can check it out.

For the occassion, we have updated our Lemmy Award, giving Lemmy a nice little spot on the trophy rather than floating somehow above it. Even at the risk of losing some traffic to one of these sites that you might like better, we feel obligated to provide you with the best resources possible to make smart wagers--but try to check in with us even if these guys are making you more money (please?). That said, let's move to those brand-new Lemmy Awards.
First off, we're giving The Online Sports Better a second Lemmy Award, after handing one out in our inaugural "ceremony." This makes The Online Sports Bettor the only two-time Lemmy Award winner, something they are likely bragging about at every moment possible.

The Online Sports Bettor specializes in NFL, hitting 58% with a 33-24 record this year, as well as MLB picks. Occasionally the Sports Bettor will tackle other sports, but NFL and MLB are the big ones over there. His stated objective is to bet on sports, win, and tell you about, according to the header of the blog, along with making you laugh and winning tons of money.

For three years, The Online Sports Bettor has done both.

The Visionary, along with The Online Sports Bettor, can both be found on the blogroll, and they are there for good reason. Picks are posted daily for all major sports, with pretty decent percentages.

In the MLB, the Visionary enjoyed a 77-56 (58%) season and is .500 or better in every sport except the NBA. At least we aren't the only ones off to a rough start in that department.

Along with free picks of varying unit amounts, the Visionary provides sports commentary and news on the current state of the onling betting industry. Hopefully, now that he has earned a Lemmy Award, he doesn't big-time his readers and quit the great work he's been doing

The Money Line Journal has some great wagering insight and some hilarious reviews on the outcome of his games, along with his very frequently updated picks.

While the picks haven't beed doing so great this year as opposed to last year (-31 units in 2008-09 compared to +175 units in '07-08), he still delivers them with great wit on a daily basis in a multitude of sports. Yes, including golf. He provides sports wagering with an attitude and isn't afraid to show emotion after a back-door cover.

We've been mentioned once on his site after e-mailing him a story of ours, which he then stuck in a Q & A session of his blog, complete with a sarcastic remark:

I am sure that the above link is going to result in loads of meaningful, repeat traffic for the soon to be famous “Stockle Mon”** blog.

The asterisk notes that he reads Stock Lemon as Stockle Mon, but hey, at least he's reading it at all. Be sure to check out some of his comments based off message board posters, or one of the aforementioned Q & A sessions. Hopefully, his last post about his struggles does not lead to him getting away from some of the things he has done so well.

Against All Odds has had some success in various sports (59-49 in NCAA Football), including way more bets on tennis than we ever imagine making (47-45 record). It's usually a good place to be during baseball season, not just because they were up 8 units on the year, but because the write-ups are pretty darn good.

In fact, the write-ups for their picks of any sports are better than a lot of what you'll find on the internet and are always worth a read. The two-man operation out to beat the books does a nice job of justifying their picks, and they'll cause you to think twice if you're on the other side of a play.

Again, we said we felt obligated to post the best sports wagering sites we know of, and that's what we're doing. That doesn't mean that these sites are too fond of us, for whatever reason.

A while ago, we decided to add our Lemmy's Friends blogroll to the right side of the page and so we e-mailed around to see if anyone was interested in link exchange. Vegas Watch and a couple of others (some of which are Lemmy Award winners) seemed to have a personal grudge against us and didn't want to add us to their own blogrolls, which is fine.

Later, Vegas Watch e-mailed us regarding our reasoning for the Steelers as one of our NFL picks. Of course, the reasoning was made up, as many of you know we simply follow our systems but sometimes post a fun stat anyway that favors our side. Vegas Watch didn't undestand that, and replied hastily:

I don't understand how you could actually give it as reasoning for picking the Steelers. Do you actually think it's relevant to a football game?

We later asked him again about including us in his blogroll, to which he decided:

Quality of the content isn't close to being high enough.

When we told him that other links on his blogroll haven't even been updated in months, he shot back:

I am glad you're policing my blogroll. Fantastic. I have no further input.

So, if anyone thinks that these Lemmy Awards are only given to blogs that we are friendly with... that isn't always the case. Regardless, Vegas Watch is deserving of the award more for commentary than for picks. You can find some great weekly NFL survivor analysis as well as a tracking of MLB free agents, in addition to whetting your gambling appetite.

Another site that isn't quite fond of us enough to put us into that elusive blogroll of theirs, but another deserved site. Like the Money Line Journal, the units are down this year (-13 in 2008-09 after +84 in '07-08), but there's still time to improve upon that.

We especially like the disclaimer at the bottom of the page, which states: "I am not responsible, nor do I care, if you lose money following my picks."

After their peformance last year, their readers can afford to lose some money.

They aren't having a great year over there, but they deserve a Lemmy Award for the constantly updated picks and solid write-ups. After all, the worst thing a gambler can do is quit, right?

Hopefully this award can help brighten up their mood, as the "about me" says: "If you know me, you know where I am. If you don't, let's keep it that way."

Maybe not the friendliest, but a Lemmy Award winner nonetheless.

Congratulations to the seven Lemmy Award winners. Feel free to brag about the award all you want. Go ahead, stick the image of that Lemmy Award trophy all over your site. Just remember to tell everyone about the great free picks you get over at your favorite site.

Superman to Save Free NBA Picks

Our Free NBA Picks are off of the 67% pace that they hit last year, but we have the perfect solution.

Superman Dwight Howard will save them.

More specifically, Howard's Orlando Magic will save them, given huge points on the road tonight.

Magic +8 1/2 over the Celtics

Our Free NBA Picks system indicates that this spread is four to five points higher than the statistics would indicate, so hopefully the combination of Superman, a little Magic, and an inflated spread will lead our Free NBA Picks back to prominence.

Upset of the Century Covers

The Broncos knocked the Jets back down to Earth yesterday with a 34-17 win, covering the +8 spread in the process.

The win means that our Upset of the century covered, improving those picks 1-0 on the century. Come back in about November of 2108 for our next Upset of the century.

Unfortunately, our Lock of the year must have been unlocked, as it didn't cover, so our Free NFL Picks had a 1-1 day.

We won't have any more "locks" or picks that only come around once in a ridiculous while, but we enjoyed the increase in Google searches for "NFL locks" while we had them.

Stay tuned for more free picks throughout the week--and the century, for that matter.

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