Thursday, February 3, 2011

2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) Prop Bet: The Green Bay Packers Player Props


Leading up to the 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) between the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers, we'll be taking a look at Super Bowl proposition betting, or more specifically, the fun or funny Super Bowl 45 (XLV) prop bets that you hear so much about. That includes props on the Super Bowl coin toss, Super Bowl halftime show, Super Bowl National Anthem, Super Bowl postgame Gatorade Shower dump and much more. Follow along on the Super Bowl sidebar to the right!

We've gone through countless of fun 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) prop bets that don't exactly feature this year's participants in the game, the Steelers and Packers. That changes today as we dissect some of the valuable player props available for both teams.

First off, let's take a look at the Packers.

Total TD Passes – Aaron Rodgers
OVER 2 (+105)

We're counting on a big game from Aaron Rodgers, and think that the worst case scenario with this prop, and maybe most likely, is that it pushes at 2. To get +105 for anything over is a bonus.

Total INT - Aaron Rodgers
UNDER 1/2 (+135)


Just as we think Rodgers should be able to find the end zone, we are banking on him not finding any Steelers. Save for a boneheaded red zone pick in the NFC Championship, Rodgers has been nearly flawless during the Packers run to the Super Bowl.

Total Receiving Yards - Donald Driver
UNDER 45 1/2 (EVEN)


Donald Driver is a big name, but at this point in his career, you can argue he is the fourth best option on the team at the moment. We expect bigger days from Jordy Nelson and Mr. Inconsistent, James Jones.

Total Receptions - Jordy Nelson
OVER 3 1/2 (-120)


To prove to you that we expect big things out of Jordy Nelson, we're putting our money where our mouths are. We take a bit of juice on here, but after being held without a catch in the first playoff game, Jordy has grabbed 15 balls in the last two. Even with the goose egg, that's an average of 5 catches per game. We like our odds here.

Total Sacks - Clay Matthews
UNDER 1/2 (+175)


Lastly, and maybe most controversially, we don't think the Claymaker will make any Clays... or plays. At least not in the form of a sack. Clay had a hot start to the season, but was slowed by injuries and newly implemented defensive schemes late in the season. You can bet the Steelers are game planning for the Packers biggest impact player defensively, and you can bet it will pay off. Clay will get pressure, and the Packers will get sacks based off of him simply running Ben Roethlisberger into a teammates open arms, but Clay won't get the credit in the box score.

That does it for our preview of the Packers player prop bets in the Super Bowl. We'll take a look at the Steelers player prop bets tomorrow.

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