Thursday, July 21, 2011

A Look at the Early 2011-12 NFL Super Bowl XLVI (46) Odds

The NFL lockout is almost over, meaning that we can continue to hit over 60% of our Free NFL Picks in 2011. Before we do any of that, we thought we'd take a look at the odds to win the 2011-12 Super Bowl XLVI (46).

Will the Packers repeat? Will the Colts become the first team to play the Super Bowl at home? Will Scam Newton and the Panthers go from worst to first, overcoming 125/1 odds?

Here are the current odds, pre-Free Agency and any injuries that may occur in training camp and the preseason, which suddenly is just around the corner!

Green Bay Packers... 7/1
New England Patriots... 7/1

San Diego Chargers... 10/1
Pittsburgh Steelers... 12/1

Atlanta Falcons... 14/1

New York Jets... 14/1

Baltimore Ravens... 15/1

Dallas Cowboys... 15/1

Philadelphia Eagles... 15/1

New Orleans Saints... 16/1
Indianapolis Colts... 18/1

New York Giants... 18/1

Minnesota Vikings... 25/1

Chicago Bears... 30/1

Houston Texans... 30/1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers... 30/1

Detroit Lions... 35/1

Kansas City Chiefs... 35/1

San Francisco 49ers... 40/1

St. Louis Rams... 45/1

Miami Dolphins... 50/1

Oakland Raiders... 50/1

Tennessee Titans... 55/1

Washington Redskins... 60/1

Denver Broncos... 65/1

Arizona Cardinals... 75/1

Cleveland Browns... 75/1
Jacksonville Jaguars... 75/1

Seattle Seahawks... 75/1

Cincinnati Bengals... 80/1
Buffalo Bills... 100/1

Carolina Panthers... 125/1

Our initial thoughts: With an elite quarterback and many returning injured players, the Packers have a good chance at a repeat, but considering it hasn't happened since the Patriots did so a decade ago, we are likely to shy away from them should we make a Super Bowl future bet, which we rarely do. Our pick to win the Super Bowl at present is probably the Jets (14/1). Like it or not, Rex Ryan will get this team to the Super Bowl, at which point we'll all have to suffer through/enjoy his media day showing. The bottom line is that Rex is a helluva coach and the Jets will again have loads of talent.

Best value: Jets (14/1), Eagles (15/1), Ravens (15/1)
Worst value: Vikings (25/1)--they are way worse than that

Now, keep in mind again that all of this is somewhat speculative (duh) because the free agency period has yet to commence. In that case, not that we would recommend this, but if you feel like the Cardinals (75/1) are a quarterback away from winning it all, they are likely to get a quality quarterback via free agency. We fully except their odds to move into the 35-40/1 range should they acquire somebody like Kevin Kolb, but we also fully expect them to still not win the Super Bowl. A better bet would be taking them to win their crappy division before they are able to acquire a QB.

It's all way too early to tell, and technically the lockout hasn't been lifted yet. But if there are some odds that jump out as valuable prior to the player signing phase, you might want to pull the trigger. At least it's better than betting on the MLB and the Rangers (as we've unsuccessfully been doing of late).


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