A Look at the Early 2011-12 NFL Super Bowl XLVI (46) Odds

The NFL lockout is almost over, meaning that we can continue to hit over 60% of our Free NFL Picks in 2011. Before we do any of that, we thought we'd take a look at the odds to win the 2011-12 Super Bowl XLVI (46).

Will the Packers repeat? Will the Colts become the first team to play the Super Bowl at home? Will Scam Newton and the Panthers go from worst to first, overcoming 125/1 odds?

Here are the current odds, pre-Free Agency and any injuries that may occur in training camp and the preseason, which suddenly is just around the corner!

Green Bay Packers... 7/1
New England Patriots... 7/1
San Diego Chargers... 10/1
Pittsburgh Steelers... 12/1
Atlanta Falcons... 14/1
New York Jets... 14/1
Baltimore Ravens... 15/1
Dallas Cowboys... 15/1
Philadelphia Eagles... 15/1
New Orleans Saints... 16/1
Indianapolis Colts... 18/1
New York Giants... 18/1
Minnesota Vikings... 25/1
Chicago Bears... 30/1
Houston Texans... 30/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers... 30/1
Detroit Lions... 35/1
Kansas City Chiefs... 35/1
San Francisco 49ers... 40/1
St. Louis Rams... 45/1
Miami Dolphins... 50/1
Oakland Raiders... 50/1
Tennessee Titans... 55/1
Washington Redskins... 60/1
Denver Broncos... 65/1
Arizona Cardinals... 75/1
Cleveland Browns... 75/1
Jacksonville Jaguars... 75/1
Seattle Seahawks... 75/1
Cincinnati Bengals... 80/1
Buffalo Bills... 100/1
Carolina Panthers... 125/1

Our initial thoughts: With an elite quarterback and many returning injured players, the Packers have a good chance at a repeat, but considering it hasn't happened since the Patriots did so a decade ago, we are likely to shy away from them should we make a Super Bowl future bet, which we rarely do. Our pick to win the Super Bowl at present is probably the Jets (14/1). Like it or not, Rex Ryan will get this team to the Super Bowl, at which point we'll all have to suffer through/enjoy his media day showing. The bottom line is that Rex is a helluva coach and the Jets will again have loads of talent.

Best value: Jets (14/1), Eagles (15/1), Ravens (15/1)
Worst value: Vikings (25/1)--they are way worse than that

Now, keep in mind again that all of this is somewhat speculative (duh) because the free agency period has yet to commence. In that case, not that we would recommend this, but if you feel like the Cardinals (75/1) are a quarterback away from winning it all, they are likely to get a quality quarterback via free agency. We fully except their odds to move into the 35-40/1 range should they acquire somebody like Kevin Kolb, but we also fully expect them to still not win the Super Bowl. A better bet would be taking them to win their crappy division before they are able to acquire a QB.

It's all way too early to tell, and technically the lockout hasn't been lifted yet. But if there are some odds that jump out as valuable prior to the player signing phase, you might want to pull the trigger. At least it's better than betting on the MLB and the Rangers (as we've unsuccessfully been doing of late).

Riding the Rangers For Our First Post-Break Free MLB Pick

We're riding the hot streak here at Stock Lemon with our 50% Free MLB Picks, even though we lost our very last Free MLB Pick when betting the Rangers. In fact, that was Texas' last loss before their incredible current 12-game win streak. When you can't beat 'em, join 'em... or something.

Texas Rangers +113 over the Los Angeles Angels

Hopefully we don't put the Stock Lemon jinx on Texas as we did way back on July 3.

Good luck!

Your 2011 Home Run Derby Winner Will Be...

Now that our Free MLB Picks have dipped all the way down to 50% (1-1), we fell off of our baseball high slightly. Fortunately, Monday provides an opportunity to regain that high by watching balls fly high and far out of the park at the 2011 Home Run Derby.

Heading into All-Star Weekend with just two free picks under our belt was by design, and we plan on picking up in that department following the break, but before that we can try and make some money on America's former and hopefully not only pastime.

Below are the odds on the 2011 Home Run Derby and our pick to win the whole shebang.

Jose Bautista... 3/1

Bautista is having another steroid-speculating type of season after last year's breakout performance, and if this were a few years ago he would have been condemned for as much by now. But we're back with a false sense of confidence in the system and turning a blind-eye like it's 1998. This is not to pick on Bautista, just merely pointing out how Brady Clark-esque his sudden homer numbers are. Still, the home run leader at the break often gets a lot of action (as you'd expect) by the public much to the bookies delight. We don't expect Jose to win it.

David Ortiz... 7/2

Last year's champ and one of the "captains" this year, Big Papi is not a horrible bet to repeat, but we don't see a repeat performance here.

Prince Fielder... 7/2

The only vegetarian who hates his dad to ever win the derby, Prince is back for another crack at it in 2011

Matt Holliday... 4/1

Holliday's got a sweet stroke, but his name value really drives up the price for him at the derby. We think he has the least amount of value at 4/1 odds. That is, of course, unless he wins the thing. Don't worry, he won't.

Adrian Gonzalez... 7/1

And now, our winner. Sure he'll need to have a lot more home runs then his current 16 if he wants to win this thing, but we think he's more than capable with his combination of power and bat speed. We also predict that his .350ish batting average will diminish, becoming another derby winner to see their actual numbers decline after having to adjust their swing to the contest. Still, Red Sox fans can hedge that bet of their new star player fading down the stretch by taking generous 7/1 odds that he's our 2011 derby champ.

Matt Kemp... 7/1

Kemp is another guy enjoying a breakout season, hitting nearly everything that gets thrown at him. The Dodgers fan base could use any bit of good news they can get, but we think big Kemp betters will end up in a similar situation as the Dodgers owner--bankrupt. And maybe divorced, who the hell knows.

Robinson Cano... 15/2

As in, Cano way he wins.

Rickie Weeks... 12/1

Weeks is really only in this competition because Prince Fielder is his buddy, so take these long odds for what they are--long odds.

Let's Keep the Good Times Rolling

As is appropriate this weekend, our Free MLB Picks have started the year off with a bang (Hey-o!) after being kept on the shelf all season. Now, we're going to keep things moving with another free pick today along with a photo of a sexy Rangers fan to boost our traffic. Don't judge, you know that's why you're here.

Rangers -1 1/2 over the Marlins

Remember, these Free MLB Picks haven't lost all year!*

*limited sample size may apply

Just How We Drew it Up, Free MLB Picks Are 100% in 2011

And that's the way that we expect our Free MLB Picks to go all season.

The Brewers edged the Twins, overcoming a 7-0 deficit to earn a one-run win in Minnesota and give our first Free MLB Pick of the season a winning result.

So, after a long wait, there you have it: our Free MLB picks are officially hitting 100% in 2011 (1-0).

As we mentioned, now that we have the system the way we like it, we'll be rolling out many more Free MLB Picks in the coming weeks.

As always, stay tuned.

Brewing Up a Free MLB Pick

Though we've been avoiding baseball like the plague this summer, we do like the value in this pick today:

Milwaukee Brewers -112 over the Minnesota Twins

Very manageable chalk on a pitching matchup we like, with the underrated Chris Narveson on the mound for Milwaukee.

This is our first Free MLB Pick of the year, if you can believe it, but we're hoping to get something going beginning with interleague play. Our system historically takes a couple months before we are confident in the data, and usually we make the mistake of rolling picks out too early and getting appropriately frustrated and swearing them off. Now, in addition to our newfound love of Arena Football, we intend to have plenty of summer wagers in the month of July.

You asked for more free picks, and you shall receive. Of course, that won't stop us from continuing our analysis on legal gambling, aka the stock market.

Free AFL Pick Win Gives Us Hope For the Summer

We've all but sworn off baseball, and aside from betting on the headline golf events, big horse races, some sporadic tennis matches and the 2011 World Cup, the sports portion of Stock Lemon this summer has--as we warned--taken a backseat to our stock analysis.

But the football-betting high has returned to us for a brief moment. In just our second Arena Football League wager of the year (we were shellacked in our first attempt), we've regained that sense of enthusiasm for sports betting, and have only the obscure sport of indoor football to thank.

The Pittsburgh Power, despite blowing a big halftime lead and committing a comedy of errors, held on to cover a +8 1/2 point spread by a half point in a 62-54 loss to the Orlando Predators, giving us our first Free AFL Pick win of the year (1-1!).

The bottom line is this: we hope you enjoy Free AFL Pick bets, as we plan on rolling more of them out each week, unless and until they begin to go horribly wrong.

For now, we're just going to enjoy paying attention to football again.