Thursday, January 29, 2009

Super Bowl XLIII Prop Bets: Cardinals Players

Leading up to the Super Bowl, we'll be taking a look at various proposition bets for the 2009 Super Bowl, Super Bowl 43, Super Bowl XLIII, The Big Game, or whatever you want to call it. You can check out previous prop bet analysis on the upper right sidebar.

We've already looked at random prop bets occuring before and after the game, so let's take a look at some of the more favorable bets during the actual game.

We'll start with the Cardinals player props.

Edgerrin James OVER 49 1/2 rushing yards (+135)

Edge averaged just 39 1/2 yards per game in the regular season, so why take this prop? Since James became the feature back again for the Cardinals in Week 17, he's rushed for 100, 73, 57, and 73 yards on 14, 16, 20, and 16 carries. Clearly, he's getting the carries, and is average over 75 yards per game in the process. He needs just 2/3 of that to win this over.

The last three games have all been playoff games, where the Cardinals are relying on the veteran rather than leaving the running duties to the young Tim Hightower as they did for much of the regular season. At +135, the over makes a lot of sense, even against a tough Steelers defense.

Steve Breaston UNDER 39 1/2 receiving yards (+105)

It's easy to say that because Kurt Warner and the Cards like to air it out and spread it out, Breaston will have a big day. Look it this prop more closely, though, and you'll see real value in the under for Breaston.

The second year wideout had a breakout 1,000 yard season, but he hasn't topped 39 1/2 yards in any of the three playoff games, and has broken the barrier just once in his last five games. His playoff performances, in terms of yards, have gotten progressively worse, going from 39 yards to 28 to 10. He's caught just seven balls for 77 yards in the post-season, averaging under 26 yards per game. Again, that's just 2/3 of what he needs in the Super Bowl.

The Cardinals are going with their more experienced wide receivers down the stretch, so we're glad to take this under at +105.

Who will have more catches: Larry Fitzgerald -1/2 (-140) OVER Anquan Boldin

We think Boldin will have himself a nice game, enough to silence his new critics, anyway. But a nice game won't be quite enough to top Larry Fitzgerald, who might be the best receiver in the league, much less the Super Bowl.

In Boldin's two playoff games, he's caught just six balls. Fitzgerald had six receptions in just one game, which happened to be his lowest total in the playoffs, followed by eight and nine catch performances.

Chip on Boldin's shoulder or not, we'll take Fitzgerald's almost 8 playoff catches per game to Boldin's 3, even if Boldin wasn't completely healthy.

Stay tuned this weekend as we take a look at Steelers player props, other in-game team props for both squads, and wrap up our coverage of Super Bowl 43 proposition betting before the Big Game on Sunday.


Post a Comment

Blog Archive